LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
By Francis Bray
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
Intraday EUR/USD: Wednesday's bear trap at 1.3770 continues to dominate the daily chart, and Thursday's high at 1.3889 remains vulnerable. The sharpness of the rally from 1.3770 indicates a push above the Apr. 11 high at 1.3906 should be anticipated, clearing the upward path to the Mar. 13 peak at 1.3967. A minimum upside requirement target at 1.4004 would be generated on a break above 1.3906. This week's Market Profile chart indicates strong support at 1.3814/17, which is protected by 1.3838.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/JPY: Keeping Wednesday's low at 102.02 intact suggests a head-and-shoulders top formation is developing on the daily chart. The neckline is formed by connecting the Apr. 25 low at 101.96 with the 102.02 low, and resistance at 102.48 and 102.65 severely hampers scope for upside risk. A push below 102.22 would put the neckline at 102.06 under threat, along with the 101.96 higher low. Measured downside scope to 101.27 would be signalled on a sustained break below 102.06. It would take a break above 102.65 to question the trend-reversal pattern, opening Tuesday's 102.79 high.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
Intraday GBP/USD: A new four-and-a-half year high at 1.6919 was set on Thursday, keeping bulls on track for the psychologically-important 1.70 level. But the uptrend is struggling to maintain its momentum, and this should concern bulls on the approach of strong resistance between 1.70 and 1.7041. Weakness will attract support while above 1.6825, and the intra-day upside gap at 1.6847 on Wednesday's Market Profile chart still underpins the threat for more gains towards 1.70 in the coming sessions. It would take a break below the Apr. 23 higher low at 1.6763 to concern GBP bulls.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Pressure continues to build on Monday's low at 0.8770, following the sharp setback from 0.8851. That rally from 0.8770 to 0.8851 formed a corrective bear flag continuation pattern, and the bull failure high at 0.8862 last week has been strengthened. A break below 0.8770 would signal a quick return to the Apr. 11 reaction low at 0.8743. Resistance at 0.8833 shields the 0.8851 high.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/GBP: The two recent daily lows at 0.8198 are coming under renewed pressure, despite the spirited rally to 0.8234 on Wednesday. A push below 0.8198 is anticipated in the coming sessions, as Tuesday's definitive bearish outside day and bearish engulfing candle dominates the daily chart. A wave of concerted bear pressure would clear the downward path to the Feb. 17 long-term low at 0.8159. Tuesday's high at 0.8258 has protection at 0.8234, but the 0.8258 high is secure.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Wednesday's doji candle tempers Tuesday's bear hammer candle, leaving the action trapped in a range between 141.13 and 142.47. The impasse appears set to continue during Friday's current session, and the broader-term picture shows a pennant consolidation pattern has been developing for the past eight weeks. To the upside, Tuesday's high at 142.47 lies in front of two falling resistance lines at 142.75 and 143.09. EUR bears would only regain control on a break below 141.13 and 140.99, exposing the cluster of reaction lows between 139.96 and 140.24.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Range.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Downside consolidation from Tuesday's high at 1.2213 has room to deepen to the 1.2180 area. Support at 1.2180 is the last line of defence protecting Monday's 1.2172 low, but EUR bears have broader-term backup from the five-week bear wedge continuation pattern that was completed in early April. Recapturing ground above 1.2201 and 1.2210 is required to lift the tone, opening 1.2216 and potentially the Apr. 23 peak at 1.2225.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: The near-term tone has taken a bearish slant, as Thursday's high at 0.9315 has become a pending bull failure. The setback from 0.9315 prevented the minimum upside requirement target at 0.9323 from being met, and a break below the higher low at 0.9252 is expected during Friday's session. Loss of 0.9252 would signal a full retracement to Tuesday's 0.9227 low. Recapturing ground above 0.9291 is required to provide respite, but a concerted wave of bull pressure is required to force a break above the 0.9315, opening 0.9346 and 0.9367.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 02, 2014 02:16 ET (06:16 GMT)
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