(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade in lower range. Liquidity thin as financial markets in Japan and U.K. are shut Monday for public holidays. USD/JPY undermined by soft dollar sentiment, lower U.S. Treasury 10-year yields as U.S. April non-farm payrolls increased stronger-than-expected 288,000 (versus +215,000 forecast) and unemployment rate fell more than expected to 6.3% from 6.7% (versus 6.6% forecast), but wage growth was flat--pointing to soft inflation--while workforce participation matched a three-decade low of 62.8%; drop in U.S. ISM-NY Current Business Conditions index to 10-month low 50.6 in April from 52.0 in March; smaller-than-expected 1.1% on-month increase in U.S. March factory orders (versus +1.5% forecast); comment from Fed's Fisher on Sunday that it is too soon for the Federal Reserve to begin thinking about raising interest rates despite a strengthening U.S. economy. USD/JPY also weighed by flows to haven JPY amid diminished investor risk appetite as tensions in Ukraine escalate; buy-yen orders from Japan exporters. But USD/JPY losses tempered by sell-yen orders from Japan importers. Yen crosses vulnerable to 0145 GMT final April HSBC China manufacturing PMI data. Other data: 1300 GMT U.S. April services PMI; 1400 GMT U.S. April employment trends index, U.S. April ISM non-manufacturing composite index. Daily chart mixed as MACD & stochastics in bearish mode, but five-day moving average meandering sideways. Support at 102.03-101.96 band (Wednesday's low-April 25 low); breach would target 101.86-101.81 (April 17 low-April 16 low), then 101.50-101.42 band (April 15 low-April 14 low), 101.32 (April 11 reaction low), 101.15 (March 17 reaction low) and 101.01 (200-day moving average). Resistance at 102.66 (hourly chart), then at 103.02-103.11 band (Friday's high-April 8 high); breach would target 103.43 (April 7 high), then 104.13 (April 4 high) and 104.84-104.92 band (Jan. 23 high-Jan. 16 high).
EUR/USD--to trade in higher range. Supported by soft dollar sentiment; stronger-than-expected Markit final euro-zone April manufacturing PMI of 53.4 (versus 53.3 forecast and initial estimate of 53.3); euro demand on buoyant EUR/GBP cross. But EUR/USD gains tempered by decreased investor risk appetite amid escalating tensions in Ukraine. Data focus: 0900 GMT euro-zone March PPI. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish; five-day moving average above 15-day MA and advancing. Resistance at 1.3889 (Thursday's high); breach would target 1.3906 (April 11 high), then 1.3948 (March 17 high), 1.3967 (March 13 top) and psychological 1.4000 line. Support at 1.3840 (hourly chart), then at 1.3812 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.3771 (Wednesday's low), then 1.3738 (April 8 low), 1.3680-1.3672 band (April 7 low-April 4 low), 1.3643 (Feb. 27 reaction low) and 1.3561 (Feb. 12 reaction low).
AUD/USD--to trade in higher range. Supported by weak dollar sentiment. But AUD/USD gains tempered by subdued investor risk appetite; Aussie sales on soft AUD/NZD cross; weaker commodity prices; caution ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate announcement Tuesday: RBA is expected to stay on hold at record-low 2.5%. Aussie vulnerable to 0145 GMT final April HSBC China manufacturing PMI data. Data focus: 2330 GMT Australia April performance of services index; 0030 GMT Australia April TD Securities monthly inflation gauge; 0130 GMT Australia April ANZ job ads, 0130 GMT Australia March building approvals; 0200 GMT Australia April VFACTS vehicle sales. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics rising from oversold. Resistance at 0.9312-0.9316 (Thursday's high-April 28 high); breach would expose upside to 0.9377 (April 22 high), then 0.9390 (April 17 high), 0.9426 (April 11 high) and 0.9461 (five-month high hit April 10). Support at 0.9243 (hourly chart), then at 0.9200 (Friday's low); breach would target 0.9171 (55-day moving average), then 0.9151 (March 26 low, matching 200-day moving averages) and 0.9051 (March 24 low).
NZD/USD--to trade in higher range. Supported by weak dollar sentiment; Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross; NZD/USD interest differential. But NZD/USD gains tempered by receding investor risk appetite; weaker commodity prices. Daily chart positive-biased as stochastics bullish; MACD staging bullish crossover against its exponential moving average; bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit Friday; five-day moving average rising above 15-day MA. Resistance at 0.8682 (this morning high); breach would target 0.8694 (April 15 high), then 0.8706 (April 11 high), 0.8744 (two-and-a-half year high hit April 10) and 0.8840 (Aug. 1, 2011 swing high). Support at 0.8626 (hourly chart), then at 0.8591 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.8539 (Wednesday's low, near 55-day moving average), then 0.8514-0.8511 (Tuesday's low-April 3 low), 0.8499 (March 20 low), 0.8437 (March 12 low) and 0.8340 ((March 3 low).
GBP/USD--to range-trade. Financial markets in U.K. are shut Monday for a holiday. GBP/USD supported by soft dollar sentiment. But sterling sentiment dented by drop in Markit / CIPS UK construction PMI to 60.8 in April from 62.5 in March. GBP/USD gains also tempered by weaker investor risk appetite; sterling sales on buoyant EUR/GBP cross. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought; five- & 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.6896 (Friday's high), then at 1.6918 (Thursday's four-and-a-half year high); breach would expose upside to psychological 1.7000, then 1.7042 (Aug. 5, 2009 reaction high). Support at 1.6820 (Friday's low); breach would target 1.6804 (Wednesday's low), then 1.6791 (Tuesday's low), 1.6775 (April 28 low) and 1.6760 (April 23 low).
USD/CHF--to trade in lower range. CHF sentiment boosted by stronger-than-expected Switzerland April PMI of 55.8 (versus 54.9 forecast). USD/CHF also undermined by weaker dollar sentiment; franc sales on soft EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF losses tempered by dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy stance; franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day MA and declining. Support at 0.8739 (April 11 low); breach would target 0.8721 (March 18 low), then 0.8696 (March 13 low), 0.8566 (Oct. 27, 2011, reaction low) and 0.8520 (50% Fibonacci retracement of advance from Aug. 9, 2011 low of 0.7068 to July 24, 2012 high of 0.9972). Resistance at 0.8810 (hourly chart), then at 0.8841-0.8850 band (Friday's high-Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.8861 (April 22 high), then 0.8879 (April 8 high) and 0.8927 (April 7 high).
USD/CAD--to range-trade. Undermined by soft dollar sentiment; firmer oil prices (Nymex crude settled 34 cents higher Friday at $99.76/bbl). But USD/CAD losses tempered by diminished investor risk tolerance. Data focus: 1215 GMT Canada April official international reserves. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD & stochastics in bearish mode; five-day moving average below 15-day MA and declining. Support at 1.0933 (Friday's low); breach would target 1.0914 (April 11 low), then 1.0863-1.0853 band (April 10 low-April 9 low). Resistance at 1.1004 (Friday's high); breach would target 1.1029-1.1039 band (Tuesday's high-April 28 high), then 1.1047-1.1053 band (April 25 high-April 23 high, near 55-day moving average), 1.1070-1.1077 band (April 1 high-March 28 high), 1.1116 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of decline from March 20 high of 1.1278 to April 9 low of 1.0853) and 1.1246 (March 24 high).
EUR/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by decreased investor risk tolerance; sell-euro orders from Japan exporters. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by improved euro sentiment; buy-euro orders from Japan importers. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics bearish near overbought. Support at 141.56 (this morning low); breach would expose downside to 141.13 (Wednesday's low), then 140.99 (April 28 low), 140.68 (April 16 low), 140.24 (April 15 low) and 140.08 (April 8 low). Resistance at 142.45-142.47 (Friday's high-Tuesday's high); breach would target 142.61 (April 4 high), then 143.44-143.47 (April 3 high-April 2 high).
EUR/GBP--to trade in higher range. Daily chart mixed as MACD & stochastics turning bullish, but five- & 15-day moving averages still declining. Resistance at 0.8228-0.8237 band (Thursday's high-Wednesday's high), then at 0.8258-0.8268 band (Tuesday's high-April 16 high); breach would target 0.8284 (April 14 high), then 0.8310-0.8314 (April 11 high-April 3 high) and 0.8365 (March 26 high). Support at 0.8192-0.8182 band (Friday's low-Feb. 28 reaction low); breach would target 0.8154 (Feb. 17 swing low), then 0.8101 (Jan. 7, 2013 low) and 0.8083 (Jan. 3, 2013 reaction low).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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May 04, 2014 19:47 ET (23:47 GMT)
0 Response to "Major FX Up As USD Retreats Despite Strong U.S. Payrolls"
Thanks for give comment.