The following is a technical analysis of seven major currency pairs for this week:
By Jerry Tan
USD/JPY
1st support - 101.86 (minor)
1st resistance - 103.02 (minor)
2nd support - 101.32 (moderate)
2nd resistance - 103.43 (minor)
USD/JPY (last 101.88) is likely to trade in a lower range this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bearish. Support is at the April 17 low of 101.86. A breach would target the April 11 reaction low of 101.32, and then the March 17 reaction low of 101.15. An extension of the fall would target the 200-day moving average, now at 101.01, and then the Feb. 4 reaction low of 100.76. Resistance is at Friday's high of 103.02. A breach would temper the negative near-term view, exposing the upside to the April 7 high of 103.43. An extension of the rise would target the April 4 reaction high of 104.13; and then the 104.84-104.92 band--defined by the Jan. 23 high and the Jan. 16 high. The medium-term USD/JPY outlook is consolidative as the five-week moving average is meandering sideways, and as long as the currency pair stays above 100.76. A fall below the 100.76 support would turn the medium-term view negative, targeting the psychological 100.00 line which is near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from the Oct. 8 low of 96.55 to the Jan. 2 high of 105.45. A drop below 100.00 would open the way down to 96.55 in the weeks ahead.
EUR/USD
1st support - 1.3812 (minor)
1st resistance - 1.3906 (minor)
2nd support - 1.3771 (moderate)
2nd resistance - 1.3948 (minor)
EUR/USD (last 1.3870) is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the five-day moving average is above the 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance is at the April 11 reaction high of 1.3906. A breach would target the March 17 high of 1.3948, and then 1.3967--the more-than-two-year high hit on March 13. An extension of the rise would target the psychological 1.4000 line; and then the Oct. 27, 2011 reaction high of 1.4248. Support is at Friday's low of 1.3812. A breach would temper the positive near-term view, targeting Wednesday's low of 1.3771; and then the 100-day moving average, now at 1.3732. An extension of the fall would target the April 4 reaction low of 1.3672, and then the Feb. 27 reaction low of 1.3643, followed by the 200-day moving average--now at 1.3605. The medium-term EUR/USD outlook is consolidative as the weekly chart is mixed: the weekly MACD indicator is bearish but the weekly slow stochastic measure is bullish. The currency pair may trade sideways between 1.3967 and 1.3672 in the weeks ahead. A rise above 1.3967 would tilt the medium-term outlook positive, exposing the upside to 1.4248; and then to the Aug. 29, 2011 high of 1.4550.
AUD/USD
1st support - 0.9200 (minor)
1st resistance - 0.9316 (moderate)
2nd support - 0.9171 (minor)
2nd resistance - 0.9377 (minor)
AUD/USD (last 0.9259) is likely to consolidate with risks skewed to the upside this week as long as the currency pair stays above Friday's low of 0.9200. The daily MACD indicator is bearish, but the daily slow stochastic measure has turned bullish at the oversold level. Resistance is at the 0.9312-0.9316 band, marked by Thursday's high and the April 28 high. A rise above 0.9316 would target the April 22 high of 0.9377, and then the April 17 high of 0.9390. An extension of the rise would target the April 14 high of 0.9425, and then the April 10 reaction high of 0.9461, followed by 0.9495--the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the Oct. 23 swing high of 0.9755 to the Jan. 24 low of 0.8658. But a drop below the 0.9200 support would reinstate the negative near-term outlook, targeting the 55-day moving average, now at 0.9171; and then the 200-day moving average, now at 0.9151. An extension of the fall would target the March 24 low of 0.9051, and then the 100-day moving average--now at 0.9044. The positive medium-term AUD/USD outlook is tempered as the weekly slow stochastic measure has turned bearish at the overbought level. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays below the April 10 reaction high of 0.9461. A rise above 0.9461 would reinstate the positive medium-term outlook, opening the way up to the Oct. 23 swing high of 0.9755.
NZD/USD
1st support - 0.8591 (minor)
1st resistance - 0.8706 (minor)
2nd support - 0.8534 (minor)
2nd resistance - 0.8744 (moderate)
NZD/USD (last 0.8654) is likely to trade in a higher range this week after completing a bullish outside-week-range pattern on the weekly chart Friday. Resistance is at the April 11 high of 0.8706. A breach would target the April 10 reaction high of 0.8744; and then the Aug. 1, 2011 swing high of 0.8840. Support is at Friday's low of 0.8591. A breach would temper the positive near-term outlook, exposing the downside to the 55-day moving average, now at 0.8534; and then to the 0.8514-0.8511 band, defined by the April 29 reaction low and the April 3 reaction low. A drop below 0.8511 would target the March 20 reaction low of 0.8499, and then the March 10 low of 0.8437. The medium-term NZD/USD outlook is consolidative as the five- and 15-week moving averages are advancing, but the weekly slow stochastic measure is bearish at the overbought level. A rise above 0.8744 would reinstate the positive medium-term outlook, targeting 0.8840, and then the psychological 0.9000 line--matching the previous base set on Dec. 1, 1976--in the weeks ahead.
GBP/USD
1st support - 1.6791 (minor)
1st resistance - 1.6918 (minor)
2nd support - 1.6775 (minor)
2nd resistance - 1.7000 (minor)
GBP/USD (last 1.6876) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the upside this week as long as the currency pair stays above Tuesday's low of 1.6791. The five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing, but the daily slow stochastic measure is at the overbought level. Resistance is at 1.6918--the four-and-a-half year high hit Thursday. A breach would target the psychological 1.7000 line; and then the Aug. 5, 2009 reaction high of 1.7042. But a drop below 1.6791 would temper the positive near-term view, targeting the April 28 low of 1.6775, and then the April 23 reaction low of 1.6760. An extension of the fall would target the 55-day moving average, now at 1.6692, and then the April 15 reaction low of 1.6680; followed by the 100-day moving average, now at 1.6585. The medium-term GBP/USD outlook is positive as the five- and 15-week moving averages are advancing. A breach of the 1.7042 resistance would pave the way to 1.7330--the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the Nov. 9, 2007 high of 2.1161 to the Jan. 23, 2009 low of 1.3498--in the weeks ahead.
USD/CHF
1st support - 0.8739 (moderate)
1st resistance - 0.8850 (minor)
2nd support - 0.8696 (moderate)
2nd resistance - 0.8861 (moderate)
USD/CHF (last 0.8776) is likely to trade in a lower range this week as the five-day moving average is below the 15-day moving average and declining. Support is at the April 11 reaction low of 0.8739. A breach would target 0.8696, the more-than-two-year low hit on March 13. A drop below 0.8696 would pave the way to the Oct. 27, 2011 reaction low of 0.8566; and then to 0.8520--the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from the Aug. 9, 2011 low of 0.7068 to the July 24, 2012 high of 0.9972. Resistance is at the 0.8841-0.8850 band, marked by Friday's high and Wednesday's high. A rise above 0.8850 would temper the negative near-term view, targeting the April 22 reaction high of 0.8861; and then the 100-day moving average, now at 0.8901. An extension of the rise would target the April 4 reaction high of 0.8952; and then the 200-day moving average, now at 0.9018, followed by the Feb. 12 high of 0.9038. The medium-term USD/CHF outlook is consolidative as the five-week moving average is meandering sideways below the declining 15-week moving average. A drop below 0.8696 would tilt the medium-term outlook negative, opening the way down to 0.8566, and then to the psychological 0.8000 line in the weeks ahead.
USD/CAD
1st support - 1.0853 (moderate)
1st resistance - 1.1004 (minor)
2nd support - 1.0839 (minor)
2nd resistance - 1.1053 (moderate)
USD/CAD (last 1.0977) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as the five-day moving average is below the 15-day moving average and declining. Support is at the April 9 reaction low of 1.0853. A breach would target the Jan. 13 low of 1.0839; and then the 200-day moving average, now at 1.0698. Resistance is at Friday's high of 1.0004. A breach would temper the negative near-term view, exposing the upside to the April 23 reaction high of 1.1053 which is currently near the 55-day moving average. An extension of the rise would target the March 28 high of 1.1077, and then 1.1116--the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the March 20 high of 1.1278 to the April 9 low of 1.0853. The medium-term USD/CAD outlook is negative as the weekly MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bearish. The currency pair may fall to the 200-day moving average, and then to the Dec. 12 low of 1.0556 in the weeks ahead.
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 04, 2014 22:30 ET (02:30 GMT)
0 Response to "USD Bearish Versus Major Currencies This Week"
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