U.S.: 10 a.m. EDT. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen testifies to U.S. Joint Economic Committee on 'The Economic Outlook.'
Having avoided a press conference after last week's FOMC meeting and mostly skipping monetary policy themes in a speech on Thursday, Ms. Yellen may now be forced to clarify her thoughts on the economy. Last week's strong jobs report will be fresh in her mind, too.
U.S.: 1:45 p.m. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew chairs Financial Stability Oversight Council latest meeting
Expect an update on the state of some of the long-pending implementation rules from the Dodd-Frank legislation. (MC)
U.S.: 3 p.m. Federal Reserve Board March consumer credit. [Expected +$15.6 billion versus +16.49 billion in February.]
These data help fill in the dots for the strong March consumer spending number released last week, where it significantly outstripped income growth. Consumers are going to need to increase their demand for credit if such growth is to continue, but with memories of the financial crisis still fresh this is problematic in its own right. (MC)
AUSTRALIA: 9:30 p.m. EDT (11:30 a.m. Thursday Sydney) April labor force data [previous unemployment rate 5.8%, previous employment +18,000, previous full-time employment -22,100, previous part-time employment +40,200, previous participation rate 64.7%]
Australian employment data has been a puzzle. The jobless rate fell unexpectedly in March despite expectations of rising unemployment as a long mining boom slows. Over the past two years, numerous resource companies have scaled back spending and laid off thousands of workers as big projects in mining-focused states like Western Australia and Queensland neared completion. On the other hand there's been more upbeat data for the construction industry, including rising house prices and a sharp pickup in building approvals, buoying hopes of a recovery there that could help offset the mining slowdown. Still, it'll take more than two months of falling joblessness to convince the central bank that a new trend has been established. (CN)
THURSDAY
GERMANY: 2 a.m. EST (8 a.m., Berlin) March industrial production [Expected up 0.2% vs. up 0.4% in February]
German industry is doing well. The latest PMI reports suggest a rebound from some of the softness at the start of the year. (AM)
INDONESIA: 2:30 a.m. EDT (1:30 p.m. Jakarta) Bank Indonesia Board of Governors meeting and decision [previously no change].
After Bank Indonesia raised interest rates by a total of 175 basis points between June and November last year and curbed commercial bank lending growth,
April consumer prices rose 7.25% on-year, easing from a 7.32% gain in March. That moderation in inflation suggests that Bank Indonesia will think its job on the inflation front is done, so it's likely to stay on hold before it begins lowering rates later in the year.
(CN)
PHILIPPINES: 4 a.m. EDT (4 p.m. Manila) Monetary Policy meeting & decision [previously unchanged]
There could be increasing pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates as inflation has increased since September and in the first quarter it grew 4.1% from a year earlier. While it has kept policy rates unchanged, the central bank tugged at the tightening lever last month and raised banks' reserve requirements to curb recent strong liquidity growth, and in a recent interview with WSJ, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Deputy Gov. Diwa Guinigundo said it would have to raise interest rates if inflation continues to pick up, noting that inflation currently is greater than nominal rates, meaning real interest rates are negative. (CN)
NORWAY: 4 a.m. EST (10 a.m., Oslo) Norges Bank policy decision [Expected policy rate unchanged at 1.5%]
Slow growth and stable and low inflation are likely to keep the Norwegian central bank on hold for the time being. (AM)
MALAYSIA: 6 a.m. EDT (6 p.m. Kuala Lumpur) Monetary Policy Committee Meeting & Statement [previously no change]
Malaysia's central bank is likely to keep rates on hold, where they have been since mid-2011. Central bank officials have described the price increases in the country as cost-push inflation, which wouldn't merit tighter monetary policy. (CN)
CHINA: N/A April. Trade data [previous trade balance $7.71 billion, previous exports -6.6% on-year, previous imports -11.3% on-year]
The new export orders subcomponent of HSBC's flash PMI fell below 50, indicating a contraction and providing more evidence of weak global demand for China's exports. But some economists say the slip in the trade data is difficult to interpret, because exports were exaggerated in early 2013 as companies disguised investment funds as trade payments to skirt China's limits on moving money across its borders. Still, many Asian exporters are benefiting less from the current U.S. economic recovery than in previous cycles. This is partly because much of U.S. GDP growth is powered by capital investment, and consumers there haven't significantly stepped up spending, as they are still paying down debt.
(CN)
U.K.: 7 a.m. EST (12 p.m., London) Bank of England policy decision [Interest rates and stock of outstanding bond purchases expected to remain unchanged]
The Bank of England will find it increasingly difficult to stick to its lower-for-longer policy on interest rates if the housing market continues to boom as it has done. Not only is it raising concerns about a bubble, but the property market's strength is rapidly eating through the economy's excess capacity. (AM)
EUROZONE: 7:45 a.m. EST (1:45 p.m., Frankfurt) European Central Bank policy decision [Expected no change to key interest rate at 0.25%]
Signs that inflation may be bottoming, that unemployment may have peaked and that credit may start to flow again to the private sector could well encourage the ECB from making any policy changes for the time being. (AM)
U.S.: 8 a.m. EDT. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser speech at Council on Foreign Relations.
Mr. Plosser is a voting member of the FOMC and one of its most hawkish members. However, he has continued to vote in line with committee since he joined the voting roster this year. That would suggest he's comfortable with the pace of unwinding the stimulus even if continues to be uncomfortable with the policy of quantitative easing in general. (MC)
CANADA:
--8:15 a.m. EDT. Mortgage and Housing Corporation April housing starts. [In March, starts were down 17.7% on the month.]
--8:30 a.m. EDT. March new housing price index. [In February, index +0.2% on-month; +1.5% on-year.]
The most recent readouts from both of these numbers underscored how much the once booming Canadian housing market has lost its drive. That's not necessarily a bad thing, so long as it doesn't convert into a crash, because it means air is being let out of the bubble gradually. But there are costs in terms of jobs and underlying consumer demand. (MC)
U.S.: 8:30 am. EDT. Unemployment insurance weekly claims report. [Expected initial claims 330,000 vs. 344,000.]
When weekly jobless claims were hovering down near 300,000, they functioned as something of a leading indicator for the strong March and April jobs reports. Now that they've had a few weeks around 330,000, are they a harbinger of yet another reversion to slower jobs growth. (MC)
MEXICO: 9 a.m. EDT. (8 a.m., Mexico City.) April full-month consumer price index. [In March, +0.27% on-month unadjusted; +0.21% adjusted.]
There had been some concern that inflation could pick up in Mexico, mostly because the peso is now well down from its highs. But the central bank has made it clear that it is not especially concerned about such risks. (MC)
U.S.:
--9:25 p.m. EDT. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans speaks at Chicago
Fed conference.
Opening remarks only.
--9:30 a.m. EDT. Fed Governor Tarullo speaks at Chicago Fed conference.
Mr. Tarullo is the go-to Fed Governor for matters of financial regulation. That's likely to be the focus of this speech. (MC)
U.S.: 10 a.m. EDT. Treasury Sec Lew testifies to House committee on the international finance system
America's foot-dragging on approving changes to the International Monetary Fund's charter has angered many emerging-market governments. Those changes, which would have given developing countries a bigger vote at the IMF, need U.S. ratification to proceed. But Congress, fearful of diluting the United States' unique veto power over IMF decision-making, is resisting. The Obama Administration wants the changes ratified but hasn't pushed hard on the matter, preferring instead to use it as a bargaining tool for other, domestic items on its agenda. All of this could come up at this hearing. (MC)
U.S.: 1 p.m. EDT. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans speaks at Chicago Fed conference.
Almost diametrically opposed to Mr. Plosser, whose speech precedes this one by five hours, Mr. Evans is a solid dove. He doesn't have a vote on the FOMC this year but he is an influential voice for the pro-stimulus wing within the Fed. (MC)
U.S.: 2 p.m. EDT Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard speaks at Household Balance Sheet Research Symposium.
Similarly to Mr. Evans, Mr. Bullard is a dovishly inclined Fed official. And while he is considered something of a maverick, he does have some influence. He doesn't have a vote this year, either. (MC)
PERU: 6 p.m. Central Reserve Bank of Peru monetary policy meeting and decision.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
May 05, 2014 00:00 ET (04:00 GMT)
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