By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Intraday EUR/USD: Bears will remain in control while Monday's two-week high at 1.2580 caps the upside. Tuesday's rally from 1.2442 has certainly tempered the bear tone though, and resistance at 1.2545 is the last line of defence protecting that 1.2580 high. Solid resistance at 1.2650 lies overhead. A break below 1.2477 is required to re-expose Tuesday's 1.2442 low, and below 1.2442 would spark additional weakness to last Friday's higher low at 1.2398.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/JPY: The push into new seven-year highs above 117.06 targets the influential 260-period resistance moving average at 117.53 on the monthly chart. The ease with which Monday's setback to 115.45 was rejected underlines the powerful underlying uptrend, and the structure of the bull wave from 115.45 has generated a wave equality target at 117.94. Further up, a 1.618 Fibonacci extension target lies at 118.94, and broader-term USD bulls eye the cluster of Fibonacci extension targets that straddle the 120 level. Solid support lies at 116.64, which has protection at 117.13 and 116.93.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bullish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Last Friday's 14-month low at 1.5595 is set to come under fresh pressure during Wednesday's session, and a downside break is expected. Monday's 1.5735 high has already been consigned to bull failure status, and a push below 1.5595 would expose 1.5566 and the 1.55 area. A broader-term downwave equality target lies at 1.5432. GBP bulls would have to break above Wednesday's 1.5678 high to alleviate the bear threat, although only above 1.5735 would lift the tone.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/CHF: A short-term bull flag continuation pattern is under construction on the daily chart, although USD bulls will have to wait patiently for completion. Monday's bounce from 0.9554 remains beneath key resistance at 0.9654, and a push through 0.9654 is required to complete the bull flag, opening last Friday's lower high at 0.9689 and the Nov. 7 peak at 0.9741. Monday's bullish engulfing candle low at 0.9554 has protection at 0.9575, and backup support below 0.9554 lies at 0.9535 and 0.9518.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/GBP: Tuesday's push and daily close above 0.80 brings the Oct. 15 peak at 0.8046 into the immediate picture. Tuesday's strength extends the bull wave from the early November lows at 0.7800, and exceeding 0.8013 indicates additional upside scope to 0.8079 within a broader bear flag continuation pattern. Tuesday's low at 0.7955 is the level to break for EUR bears to regain control of the near-term.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Range.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Stretches into new six-year highs above 146.53, targeting resistance at 147.00 and 147.61. The current bull wave from Monday's 144.80 low is getting a new lease of life from the bullish crossover on the daily Slow Stochastic indicator, bringing Ichimoku cloud resistance at 147.61 on the quarterly chart within reach. The bull wave's higher low at 145.76 would have to be broken in order to question the bullish outlook.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: The SNB floor at 1.20 remains within striking distance, after edging to a new 26-month low at 1.2009 on Tuesday. The May 2012 low at 1.2006 is all that stands in front of the 1.20 level, although the 1.20 level is expected to be a difficult level to break. That suggests EUR bears will struggle to muster up the volume needed to meet the downwave equality target at 1.1948. Recapturing ground above 1.2017 would provide respite, although resistance at 1.2023 and 1.2039 are the key levels to surpass, to damage the broader-term downtrend.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Last Friday's bullish outside day low at 0.8649 has come under pressure during Wednesday's Asian session. That 0.8649 low is the floor of a consolidation range from Monday's bearish engulfing candle high at 0.8797, but Tuesday's downward breach of 0.8681 has left the 0.8797 high as a pending bull failure. A break below 0.8649 would provide confirmation of the bull failure, exposing the higher low at 0.8591 that defends the Nov. 7 long-term low at 0.8541. Resistance at 0.8705 and 0.8728 would have to be regained in order to lift the tone, opening 0.8755.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 19, 2014 02:21 ET (07:21 GMT)
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