USD Corrects Lower; JPY Really Peaking

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: Keeping the important Nov. 7 long-term low at 1.2358 intact this week suggests a consolidation phase up to 1.2602 is developing. The recovery from Monday's low at 1.2359 extends above 1.2451 to open 1.2504 and 1.2535, although the range high at 1.2602 would only be opened on a break above 1.2535. Support at 1.2426 is the level to break for EUR bears to wrest control back, exposing 1.2396 and threatening a test of the 1.2358/59 lows.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: The corrective setback from Tuesday's 118.59 high is expected to run out of steam on Wednesday, without reaching its minimum objective at 117.00. The Nov. 21 low at 117.35 and support at 117.19 helps to shield the 117.00 target, and there is evidence from the 60-minute Momentum indicator that the pace of the decline from 118.59 is waning. A push into new session highs above 117.98 would prompt gains to 118.29 and 118.59, dragging last Thursday's seven-year high at 118.98 back into the picture. USD bulls can then start thinking about 120 again.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bullish.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Remains trapped in a trading range between 1.5592 and 1.5737. However, the bullish crossover on the daily Slow Stochastic indicator is beginning to attract more GBP bulls, and pressure is building on 1.5737 resistance. A push through 1.5737 would open 1.5775/1.5800 and 1.5845, albeit within a corrective rally. Loss of 1.5675 and 1.5651 is required to indicate a return to last week's 14-month bear trap low at 1.5592.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: A trading range is developing between 0.9530 and 0.9741. This week's test of the Nov. 7 peak at 0.9741 has been rebuffed, and internal support at 0.9624 is under threat. However, the daily chart is dominated by the completion of a two-week bull flag continuation pattern last Friday, consigning last week's low at 0.9530 to bear failure status. Recapturing ground above 0.9698 is required to re-open the 0.9740/41 highs.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Support at 0.79 remains vulnerable, despite the rally from Monday's 0.7904 low. Last week's successful defence of the solid 0.8046/79 resistance area keeps EUR bears in charge, and a test of 0.79 support should be expected while resistance at 0.7955 caps the upside. Loss of 0.79 would expose 0.7860, then 0.78, and a full retracement to the late September base at 0.7767 is the broader-term objective. Resistance at 0.7975 would have to be reclaimed to defer the bearish outlook.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: Resistance at 147.38 is likely to be broken during Wednesday's session, leading to a return to last week's six-year high at 149.12 in the coming sessions. Monday's low at 145.59 marks the low-point of the corrective setback from 149.12, and a break above 147.38 would leave a truncated bear failure on the 60-minute chart, opening 148 and 148.43 that stand on the path to 149.12. Support at 146.13/146.31 shields the 145.59 low.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: The rally from last week's 26-month low at 1.2009 continues to put pressure on resistance at 1.2033. The rally is corrective, and a break above 1.2033 would open 1.2039 and former range lows at 1.2050 that have reversed polarity to become strong resistance. Support at 1.2022 and 1.2015 defend the 1.2009 low, located just above the SNB floor at 1.20.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Tuesday's push and session close below 0.8541 has cleared the path for weakness to 0.8430 in the coming sessions. The push into four-year lows extends the sub-dividing bear wave from the Oct. 29 lower high at 0.8913, and two wave equality targets land at 0.8497 and 0.8430. Corrective upside risk has limited scope to 0.8610, which has protection at 0.8568.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
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        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        November 26, 2014 02:22 ET (07:22 GMT)

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