(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--uptrend. A bullish technical bias persists for spot USD/CNY, increasing the odds that the technical resistance near 6.1400 -- the daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance -- will soon be tested. The daily Bollinger uptrend channel has been in effect since early last week and now supports USD/CNY at 6.1241. Mild weakness of the U.S. dollar index on Friday due to a blip up in EUR/USD could however result in a lower USD/CNY daily parity rate, which may weigh on spot USD/CNY. The yuan is under pressure partly due to weaker economic data. China's October industrial output data released Thursday disappointed, rising by only 7.7% on-year versus forecasts for a 8.0% rise -- as was recorded in September. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.1241 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 6.1190 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 6.1142 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 6.1412 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone), before 6.1500 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/TWD--uptrend. USD/TWD continues on its upward path toward the round-figure trading barrier at 31.000 after hitting a four-year high on Friday. An underlying biddish tone in USD/JPY continues to prop up USD/TWD. The daily Bollinger uptrend channel now supports USD/TWD at 30.580. The central bank was suspected to have been buying U.S. dollars at 30.650 late Friday, adding to bullish sentiment in the spot market. In the offshore USD/TWD market, the price of the benchmark 1-month nondeliverable forward contract is now around par versus that of the spot contract, suggesting that bullish-dollar speculative pressures may be returning. The Taiwan dollar is currently at its weakest since October 2010. Taiwan publishes its October industrial output report at 0800 GMT. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 30.580 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 30.480 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 30.430 (base of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 31.000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 31.200 (psychological resistance).
USD/KRW--uptrend. USD/KRW opens higher due to another seven-year high notched by lead indicator USD/JPY but then backtracks to slightly under the 1,100 round-figure trading barrier as USD/JPY subsides. The bullish technical bias for USD/KRW has increased after it closed last week above the 200-week moving average--a medium term technical indicator. The possibility of an interest rate cut by the Bank of Korea in the near-to-medium term will likely keep USD/KRW supported on dips. Analysts expect the BOK will lower rates to combat slowing growth and to weaken the won versus trade rival Japan's yen. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,100 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,095 (200-week moving average), before 1,092 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 1,107 (monthly Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1,110 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1,111 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/SGD--uptrend. USD/SGD continues to rise toward 1.3029 -- the top of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel -- as lead indicator USD/JPY stays aloft. The Japanese yen -- part of the currency valuation basket model that the Singapore central bank uses to determine fair vaule for its currency -- fell to a new 7-year low versus the greenback on Monday. The Singapore dollar on Friday fell past the round-figure trading barrier of 1.3000 - a level not seen since January 2012. A daily close above this psychological level could increase bullish pressure on USD/SGD. Data released Monday showed Singapore's October non-oil domestic exports slipped 1.5% on-year in October, versus the 0.9% growth seen the previous month. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.2940 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1.2900 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.2850 (20-day Bollinger mid support and psychological support). Immediate resistance is at 1.3000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.3029 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1.3050 (psychological resistance).
USD/MYR--uptrend. USD/MYR has risen to its highest level since March 2010 due to a persistently strong USD/JPY. The daily chart suggest there is more room for the greenback to rise. On an intraday basis, USD/MYR could stall when it reaches the top of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel at 3.3735. USD/MYR has been displaying positive technical signs on the daily and weekly chart, and could soon also appear bullish on the monthly chart if it ends November above 3.3345 -- the top of the monthly Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone. Data released Friday showed Malaysia's third-quarter gross domestic product data expanded 5.6%, in-line with analysts' forecasts. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.3410 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 3.3345 (monthly Ichimoku Cloud support), before 3.3200 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 3.3500 (psychological resistance), before 3.3735 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/THB--uptrend. USD/THB has a bullish slant due to the daily Bollinger uptrend channel as well as the upward trendline that rises from mid-October. The dual technical supports could encourage punters to bet on USD/THB hitting the round-figure trading barrier at 33.00 soon. The U.S. dollar's continued ascent versus the Japanese yen remains the leading factor for regional Asian currency weakness. The USD/THB daily and weekly Bollinger uptrend channels are both in effect, suggesting that the U.S. dollar will continue to rise in the near-to-medium term. Thailand's 3Q gross domestic data report is due at 0230 GMT. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 32.82 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 32.74 (October trendline), before 32.62 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 32.88 (top of monthly Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone), then at 33.00 (round-figure trading barrier), before 33.01 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/PHP--possible uptrend. USD/PHP could make yet another attempt to breach the daily Bollinger uptrend channel at 44.95 as USD/JPY continues to hit fresh seven-year highs, spiking past 117.00 early Monday. If USD/PHP ends Monday above 44.95 a bullish technical bias would appear, increasing the odds that the peso weakens versus the U.S. dollar in the near term. Recent improvement in Philippine exports have raised hopes for a strong 3Q growth report, thereby lending support to the peso. Fear of the Philippine central intervening to prevent excessive peso weakness may be another factor dissuading bullish USD/PHP bets. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 44.87 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 44.80 (psychological support), before 44.79 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at then at 44.95 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 45.00 (round-figure trading barrier), before 45.12 (8-month high).
USD/IDR--uptrend. USD/IDR may soon test the 2014-peak of 12,270 as the daily Bollinger uptrend channel nudges the U.S. dollar upwards. The uptrend channel now supports the greenback at 12,180 but places an interim cap at 12,240. USD/IDR is now looking bullish on the daily, weekly and monthly chart -- the latter contingent on a Novemeber close above 12,180. The rupiah is subsiding even as the new Indonesian government looks set to shore up its finances with a cut in fuel subsidies expected soon. Bank analysts are turning slightly less positive on Indonesia's growth potential after a slowdown seen in third-quarter gross domestic product data. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 12,180 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 12,120 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 12,080 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is at 12,240 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 12,270 (2014 high), before 12,300 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/INR--uptrend. USD/INR may deviate slightly from its upward path toward the October's high of 61.94 as the U.S. dollar index retreated slightly on Friday. The rupee could recover toward 61.52 where the base of the USD/INR daily Bollinger uptrend channel awaits. The dollar was slightly weaker Friday after a consumer survey showed a toning down of inflation expectations. In the medium term, the rupee is still likely to fall versus the U.S. dollar due to inevitable U.S. interest rate hikes, but analysts expect it to stay strong versus other emerging market currencies due to positive fundamentals. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 61.52 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 61.36 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 61.25 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone). Immediate resistance is likely at 61.67 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 61.94 (October peak), before 62.00 (round-figure trading barrier).
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 16, 2014 20:01 ET (01:01 GMT)
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@wsj.com
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
November 16, 2014 20:01 ET (01:01 GMT)
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