(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--uptrend. Despite spot USD/CNY having slipped slightly on Thursday, the bullish technical bias persists. The pair remains in the daily Bollinger uptrend channel which now supports at 6.1231. The dollar may be headed for the daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone looming at 6.1412 in the near term. The bullish consolidation in USD/JPY has created a similar pattern in the benchmark U.S. dollar index--which is typically a leading indicator for the PBOC's daily benchmark USD/CNY exchange rate. A higher benchmark USD/CNY exchange rate could lift spot USD/CNY beyond the round-figure trading barrier of 6.1300. China's October industrial output data released Thursday disappointed, rising by only 7.7% on-year versus forecasts for a 8.0% rise--as was recorded in September. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.1231 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 6.1185 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 6.1142 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 6.1276 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 6.1300 (round-figure trading barrier), before 6.1412 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone).
USD/TWD--uptrend. USD/TWD continues on its upwards path toward the round-figure trading barrier at 31.000. An underlying biddish tone in USD/JPY--which continues to be a lead indicator for USD/Asia--has been propping up USD/TWD. The daily Bollinger uptrend channel now supports USD/TWD at 30.540. In the offshore USD/TWD market, the price of the benchmark 1-month nondeliverable forward contract is now slightly under par versus that of the spot contract, suggesting that bullish speculative pressures have eased from earlier in the week. The central bank's aim of scrapping yuan-coversion limits for residents, if approved, could negatively affect the Taiwan dollar. There could be increased outflows as Taiwanese investors deploy assets to China. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 30.550 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 30.460 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 30.410 (base of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 30.640 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 30.710 (year-high), before 30.720 (2011 peak).
USD/KRW--uptrend. USD/KRW has rallied above the 1,100 round-figure trading barrier--a Sept 2013 level--for the second time this week as USD/JPY crossing 116.00 provides a trigger for another U.S. dollar spike. While the Bank of Korea held its base interest rate at its monetary policy meeting Thursday, the market continues to expect a rate cut in the months ahead to combat slowing growth and to weaken the won versus trade rival Japan's yen. A USD/KRW weekly close above 1,095 - the 200-week moving average--would trigger a medium-term bullish chart signal that might encourage more U.S. dollar-buying. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,100 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,095 (200-week moving average), before 1,090 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 1,107 (monthly Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1,110 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/SGD--uptrend. USD/SGD reaffirmed its bullish bias after it closed Thursday above 1.2911, keeping the daily Bollinger uptrend channel in play. The uptrend channel now supports the pair at 1.2921, bringing the round-figure trading barrier of 1.3000--a level not tested since Jan 2012--closer. Upside momentum appears to be low but USD/SGD likely remains supported as long as regional indicator USD/JPY stays buoyant. The yen--a key variable in the Monetary Authority of Singapore's currency valuation model - has been leading USD/SGD in recent weeks after the Bank of Japan's surprise easing measures. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.2921 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1.2900 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.2850 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is at 1.3000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.3007 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1.3050 (psychological resistance).
USD/MYR--uptrend. USD/MYR may bounce off the base of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel and rally toward the 3.3500 round-figure trading barrier that has not been tested since May 2010. Persistent buoyancy of USD/JPY will likely be the trigger for more U.S. dollar strength versus Asian currencies. The ringgit has been displaying negative technical signs on the daily and weekly chart, and could soon look negative on the monthly chart if it ends November weaker than 3.3345 to the U.S. dollar--which would place USD/MYR above the monthly Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone, opening the possibility of much greater upside. Malaysia's September industrial production grew at a slower pace of 5.4% versus the previous month's rate of 6.5%, boding poorly for Friday's third-quarter gross domestic product data due at 1000 GMT. Analysts expect the economy grew at 5.6% in 3Q. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.3345 (monthly Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 3.3330 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 3.3200 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 3.3465 (year-high), then at 3.3500 (psychological resistance), before 3.3680 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/THB--uptrend. The daily Bollinger uptrend channel remains in effect, supporting USD/THB at 32.79. Despite a dip in USD/THB Thursday, implying a slightly stronger baht, Thailand's currency has struggled to recover given the U.S. dollar's continued ascent versus the Japanese yen--which has been a trigger for Asian currency weakness recently. The USD/THB daily and weekly Bollinger uptrend channels are still in effect, suggesting that the U.S. dollar will continue to rise in the near-to-medium term. USD/THB is seeing a boost from USD/JPY attempting to cross 116.00. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 32.79 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 32.59 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 32.50 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is at 32.88 (top of monthly Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone), then at 32.99 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 33.00 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/PHP--possible uptrend. USD/PHP could rally along with regional USD/Asia peers that are being lifted by USD/JPY chalking up fresh 7-year highs early Friday. A Friday close above 44.95 would impart a bullish technical bias to USD/PHP and thus encourage more volatility for the pair--which has been in a technical standstill for the past four sessions. The peso has been holding up well versus the overall stronger U.S. dollar, possibly due to a 15.7% on-year surge in Philippine's export growth for September revealed earlier this week. The booming exports data has boosted hopes for strong economic growth this quarter. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 44.87 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 44.80 (psychological support), before 44.79 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at then at 44.95 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 45.00 (round-figure trading barrier), before 45.12 (8-month high).
USD/IDR--uptrend. USD/IDR may grind higher along the daily Bollinger uptrend channel toward the next round-figure trading barrier at 12,300. The bullish technical chart signal came into effect Wednesday but the last two doji candlesticks on the daily chart suggest momentum is still low. USD/IDR is now looking bullish on the daily, weekly and monthly chart--the latter contingent on a November close above 12,180. Bank Indonesia on Thursday kept its monetary policy unchanged as expected, leaving interest rates at 7.5%. The central bank reiterated its anti-inflationary stance but there was little fodder for rupiah traders to latch on to. Bank analysts are turning slightly less positive on Indonesia's growth potential after a slowdown seen in third-quarter gross domestic product data released last week. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 12,170 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 12,110 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 12,080 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel and daily Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is at 12,230 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 12,278 (Dec. 2013 high), before 12,300 (round-figure trading barrier).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
November 13, 2014 20:00 ET (01:00 GMT)
USD/INR--uptrend. USD/INR has entered the daily Bollinger uptrend channel for the first time since mid-October, increasing the chance for the dollar to rally higher versus the India rupee. The uptrend channel now supports the pair at 64.48, aiming it toward the October peak of 61.94. The U.S. dollar index--one of the key indicators for Asian currency traders--continues to climb as USD/JPY chalks up a fresh 7-year high, surpassing the round-figure trading barrier of 116. But the decline of the rupee versus the greenback does not mean investors are bearish on India. The strong push for foreign investment and infrastructure spending by the new Modi government, coupled with the continued fall in oil prices are positives for the Indian economy. Analysts expect the rupee to gain versus other emerging market currencies even if it loses ground to the U.S. dollar. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 61.48 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 61.35 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 61.25 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone). Immediate resistance is likely at 61.61 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 61.94 (October peak), before 62.00 (round-figure trading barrier).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@wsj.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 13, 2014 20:00 ET (01:00 GMT)
0 Response to "USD/Asia Rallies as Yen Hits New 7-Years-Low -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
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