(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--consolidation. After setting a markedly lower USD/CNY benchmark rate on Monday -- suspected to be part of "window-dressing" for the APEC meeting -- the yuan fixing rate is expected to stabilize Tuesday. Overnight, the U.S. dollar index regained ground as USD/JPY pushed back above 114.00. Lacking a catalyst, spot USD/CNY may linger between the lower and upper Bollinger bands (standard deviation 1) for a while longer. Shanghai stocks have been on the rise ahead of the Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect opening Nov. 17. The stronger-than-expected Chinese exports data released last weekend may also have boosted the equity market. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.1185 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 6.1142 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 6.1099 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 6.1229 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 6.1272 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 6.1300 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/TWD--uptrend. A bullish technical bias persists for USD/TWD after the daily Bollinger uptrend channel was reaffirmed Monday. The U.S. dollar's rebound to close above 30.510 on Monday has confirmed that the uptrend channel remains in effect, guiding the way to the round-figure trading barrier at 31.000. The base of the uptrend channel has now shifted to 30.520. Overnight, U.S. dollar strength returned due to USD/JPY shaking off sporadic selling to end higher. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 30.520 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 30.440 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 30.410 (base of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 30.610 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 30.710 (year-high), before 30.720 (2011 peak).
USD/KRW--uptrend. USD/KRW resumes its ascent after the overnight rebound of USD/JPY -- a lead indicator for the South Korea won. The USD/KRW daily Bollinger uptrend channel now supports the dollar higher at 1,080 versus 1,078 on Monday. The likelihood of USD/KRW hitting the major round-figure trading barrier at 1,100, which could trigger stoploss orders to buy, has increased as USD/JPY attempts to rise back above 115.00. A weekly close above 1,092 -- the top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone -- would trigger a bullish chart signal. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,080 (round-figure trading barrier and base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1,070 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 1,090 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,092 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel and top of weekly Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone), before 1,095 (200-week moving average).
USD/SGD--uptrend. USD/SGD likely continues to rise as the daily Bollinger uptrend channel remains in play despite slight U.S. dollar weakness seen on Monday. The base of the channel now supports USD/SGD at 1.2892, providing a base off which the greenback could rally to the round-figure trading barrier at 1.3000 -- a level not seen since January 2012. Overnight, the ICE U.S. dollar index bounced back up, keeping its own Bollinger uptrend channel intact. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.2900 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.2892 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before1.2850 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is at 1.2978 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1.3000 (near 3-year high).
USD/MYR--uptrend. The bullish technical bias for USD/MYR remains, suggesting that the Malaysian ringgit will weaken versus the U.S. dollar in the near term. The pair is now supported by the 3.3210 base of the channel and could mark a new high for 2014 if it surpasses 3.3465. The U.S. dollar is back up across the board in Asia after a bout of weakness seen Monday. Apart from yen weakness due to Bank of Japan's easing measures, the slide of gold and oil prices has been another factor boosting the greenback. Malaysia releases its September industrial production index at 0401 GMT. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.3210 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 3.3000 (round-figure trading barrier), before 3.2950 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 3.3465 (year-high), then at 3.3500 (psychological resistance), before 3.3530 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/THB--uptrend. USD/THB continues on its way to 33.00 after a rebound off the base of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel on Monday. A resurgent USD/JPY is leading most USD/Asia currency pairs higher. Though risk appetite is generally healthy as U.S. stocks continue to make record highs, the overarching possibility of sooner-than-expected U.S. interest rate hikes may keep Asian currencies repressed against the dollar. The USD/THB daily and weekly Bollinger uptrend channels are still in effect, suggesting that the U.S. dollar will continue to rise in the near-to-medium term. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 32.71 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 32.52 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 32.50 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is at 32.89 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 32.90 (June high), before 33.00 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/PHP--uptrend. The U.S. dollar is broadly stronger in Asia and could notch a fresh eight-month peak against the Philippine peso if the 45.12 mark recorded last Thursday is surpassed. Falling oil and gold prices have been pushing the U.S. dollar higher broadly. Coupled with the overnight rebound of the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to 2.36%, there is little reason to be bearish on the greenback. The 20-day Bollinger mid line that supports USD/PHP at 44.85 could guide the pair back into the Bollinger uptrend channel at 44.94 and then above the round-figure trading barrier at 45.00. Philippines releases its September export data at 0100 GMT. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 44.85 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 44.80 (psychological support), before 44.78 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at then at 44.94 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 45.00 (round-figure trading barrier), before 45.12 (8-month high).
USD/IDR--consolidation higher. Consolidation remains the theme for USD/IDR as the pair lingers between the lower and upper USD/IDR Bollinger bands (standard deviation 1). An overnight rebound of the benchmark U.S. dollar index could spur USD/IDR toward the 12,180 entrance of the Bollinger uptrend channel, but it might take another session before this bullish technical signal can be confirmed. Bank analysts are turning slightly less positive on Indonesia's growth potential after a slowdown seen in third-quarter gross domestic product data released last week. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 12,110 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 12,050 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 12,020 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is at 12,180 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 12,250 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 12,278 (December 2013 high).
USD/INR--possible uptrend. USD/INR is still bobbing just below the entrance to the daily Bollinger uptrend channel, but could trigger this bullish technical signal on a Tuesday close above 61.51. Overnight U.S. dollar strength on the back of falling oil and gold prices is lifting most USD/Asia currency pairs in early markets. The Indian rupee is likely to open around 61.54 Tuesday based on the closing level of the one-month USD/INR nondeliverable forward contract traded in the offshore market. Confirmation of the Bollinger uptrend channel coming into effect could impart bullish momentum to USD/INR and send it toward its October peak of 61.95. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 61.35 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 61.20 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone and daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 61.03 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 61.51 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 61.67 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 61.95 (October peak).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@wsj.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 10, 2014 19:59 ET (00:59 GMT)
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