JPY Corrects Higher; AUD Bears in Control

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: Fresh EUR bull pressure is expected to keep last Thursday's pivotal high at 1.2496 under threat. A push higher is on the cards while Monday's low at 1.2414 holds, opening 1.2507 and the 1.2529/35 resistance area, while leaving the Dec. 8 low at 1.2247 as a pending bear failure. However, EUR bulls need to force a break above the Nov. 19 intra-wave lower high at 1.2602 to considerably strengthen that 1.2247 low. Loss of 1.2414 is required to create additional downside risk to 1.2393 and 1.2359/70.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: Weakness during Tuesday's Asian session completed a bearish symmetrical triangle continuation pattern on the 60-minute chart, and more downside is on offer. The bearish resolution generated a measured downside objective at 115.85, and the 115.00/115.25 area provides a solid long-term floor. Recapturing ground above 117.63 is required to provide respite, but only above 117.81 would re-open the current session high at 118.01.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bullish.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Resistance at 1.5757 has been resolutely defended, to bring the Dec. 8 reaction low at 1.5542 back into focus. That said, the pace of the broader downtrend has been slowing down since the mid-September lower high at 1.6525, and the 1.5542 low would only become vulnerable on a break below Monday's low at 1.5602. Recapturing ground above 1.5709 is required to re-open the 1.5757 high.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: The decline from last week's high at 0.9818 is threatening to extend towards a wave equality target at 0.9525. The bear wave from the Dec. 8 peak at 0.9818 set a two-week low at 0.9610 on Monday, and a push below 0.9610 would attract fresh bear pressure towards the 0.9525 objective, that lies close to the important Nov. 19 higher low at 0.9530. Recapturing ground above 0.9700/10 is required to give USD bulls some control back.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Monday's strength extends the sub-dividing short-term rally, putting resistance at 0.7976 under threat. The push above 0.7953 completed a bull pennant continuation pattern on the 60-minute chart, threatening additional EUR gains to 0.7988 and 0.8002, and potentially 0.8017. The termination low of the bear pennant at 0.7908 would have to be broken in order to question the near-term bullish outlook.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: The downward breach of 146.45 on Monday signals room for additional weakness to 145.06. The move extends the decline from the Dec. 8 peak at 149.79, and the wave structure suggests there is additional downside risk to 144.47 and 143.80. Monday's action left a stark bearish outside day and bearish engulfing candle at the day's 148.44 high, and corrective upside risk is hampered by the 146.59/146.87 resistance area.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: The SNB floor at 1.20 remains under threat, helped by Thursday's dominant bearish outside day. A downwave equality target lies at 1.2006, although the structure of the decline from the Dec. 2 high at 1.2046 suggests the 1.20 level will come under a barrage of bear pressure. However, it is unlikely that the 1.20 level will be decisively breached. Thursday's key high at 1.2038 would have to be exceeded in order to put EUR bulls in control, which has protection at 1.2020.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: A new four-and-a-half year low has been set at 0.8200 during Tuesday's Asian session, and more weakness is expected. The powerful bear wave from the Nov. 17 intra-wave lower high at 0.8797 has generated additional downside risk to 0.8140, which would become available on a break below 0.8200. Resistance at 0.8294/99 has become pivotal, and protection lies at 0.8247 and 0.8270.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
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        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        December 16, 2014 02:44 ET (07:44 GMT)

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