(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate after hitting two-week low 117.44 Thursday. Undermined by flows to haven JPY amid reduced investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 8.36% to 20.08; S&P 500 rose as high as 2,055.53 overnight but pared gains to close just 0.45% up at 2,035.33) after oil prices fell in late U.S. trade to fresh five-year lows (Nymex crude hit $58.96/bbl, its cheapest since July 13, 2009). USD/JPY also weighed by Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 88.52 versus 88.23 early Thursday) after stronger-than-expected 0.7% on-month increase in U.S. November retail sales (versus forecast +0.4%), fewer-than-expected 294,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended Dec. 6 (versus forecast 300,000), less-than-expected 1.5% on-month drop in U.S. November import price index (versus forecast -1.8%). USD/JPY downside also limited by demand from Japan importers; Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 0430 GMT revised Japan October retail sales and industrial production, 1330 GMT U.S. November PPI (forecast -0.1%), 1500 GMT University of Michigan preliminary U.S. December survey of consumer sentiment (forecast 90.0 versus November's 88.8). Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish. Support at 118.23 (hourly chart), then at 117.84 (hourly chart) and 117.44 (Thursday's low); breach would target 117.22 (Nov. 27 reaction low), then 116.34 (Nov. 18 low) and 115.44 (Nov. 17 low). Resistance at 119.55 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 119.92 (Wednesday's high), then 121.00 (Tuesday's high), 121.86 (Monday's seven-year high), 123.66 (July 9, 2007 high) and 124.16 (June 22, 2007 swing high).
EUR/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; diminished investor risk appetite; increased expectations for more aggressive stimulus measures by the European Central Bank after eurozone financial institutions on Thursday borrowed less-than-expected EUR129.8 billion (versus EUR150 billion forecast) in the second installment of a four-year lending program for banks. EUR/USD also weighed by euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross; fears that Greece's anti-austerity Syriza party could win national elections if presidential voting on Dec. 17 fail to find a solution acceptable to all, precipitating a new crisis with Greece's international creditors. But EUR/USD losses tempered by positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 1000 GMT eurozone October industrial production (forecast +0.2% on-month, +0.8% on-year). Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD & stochastics in bullish mode. Support at 1.2370-1.2362 band (Thursday's low-Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2292 (Tuesday's low), then 1.2247-1.2239 band (Monday's low-Aug. 10, 2012 low), 1.2132 (Aug. 2, 2012 low), 1.2040 (July 31, 2012 swing low) and psychological 1.2000 line. Resistance at 1.2496 (Thursday's high); breach would target 1.2507 (Dec. 1 high), then 1.2524-1.2532 band (Nov. 27 high-Nov. 26 high) and 1.2549 (55-day moving average).
AUD/USD--to trade with bearish bias after hitting four-year low 0.8213 Thursday. AUD hurt after RBA board member John Edwards said Thursday that Australia's economy won't grow strongly enough next year to prevent a further rise in unemployment which means that interest rates will need to remain low. Mr. Edwards also said there's room to cut rates if needed and expects further falls in the Australian dollar. AUD/USD also weighed by positive dollar sentiment; waning investor risk appetite; Aussie sales on soft AUD/NZD cross; weak commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 0.61% at 245.42 Thursday). But AUD sentiment soothed by more-than-expected 42,700 increase in Australia's November net jobs (versus forecast +15,000). AUD/USD losses also tempered by positions adjustment ahead of weekend. AUD vulnerable to China November M2 broad money; and 0530 GMT China November fixed assets investment, industrial output and retail sales data. Other data: 0030 GMT Australia October lending finance. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining; stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels. Support at 0.8213 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.8086 (June 8, 2010 reaction low), then 0.8065 (May 25, 2010 swing low) and psychological 0.8000 line. Resistance at 0.8375 (Thursday's high); breach would target 0.8392 (Dec. 5 high), then 0.8429 (Dec. 4 high), 0.8466 (Dec. 3 high) and 0.8546 (Nov. 28 high).
NZD/USD--to trade with risks skewed to downside after hitting seven-day high 0.7870 Thursday. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; receding investor risk appetite; weak commodity prices; drop in BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index to four-month low of 55.2 in November from downwardly revised 58.9 in October. But NZD/USD losses tempered by less-dovish-than-expected Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy statement Thursday; Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross; NZD-USD interest differential; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart tilting positive as stochastics rising from oversold levels; MACD histogram bars turning positive. Support at 0.7776 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7659 (Wednesday's low), then 0.7606 (Tuesday's two-and-a-half year low), 0.7451 (June 1, 2012 swing low) and 0.7367 (Nov. 25, 2011 swing low). Resistance at 0.7870 (Thursday's high); breach would target 0.7889 (Dec. 2 high), then 0.7910 (Dec. 1 high), 0.7926 (Nov. 27 high) and 0.7947 (Nov. 21 high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate after hitting eight-day high 1.5756 Thursday. Supported by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. But GBP/USD upside limited by positive dollar sentiment; subdued investor risk appetite; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish; five-day moving average rising above 15-day moving average. Resistance at 1.5756-1.5763 band (Thursday's high-Dec. 1 high); breach would expose upside to 1.5825 (Nov. 27 high), then 1.5944 (Nov. 11 high). Support at 1.5649-1.5645 (Thursday's low-Wednesday's low), then at 1.5624 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5539 (Monday's 15-month low), then 1.5504 (Sept. 2, 2013 low), 1.5426 (Aug. 28, 2013 reaction low), 1.5205 (Aug. 7, 2013 low) and 1.5101 (Aug. 2, 2013 reaction low).
USD/CHF--to trade with bullish bias after hitting eight-day low 0.9625 Thursday. No surprise from Swiss National Bank on Thursday as the central bank held its target range for the three-month London interbank offered rate at 0.0% to 0.25% and repeated it will intervene to prevent the Swiss franc from surpassing 1.20 against the euro. USD/CHF supported by positive dollar sentiment. But USD/CHF gains tempered by franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD & stochastics in bearish mode. Resistance at 0.9710 (Thursday's high), then at 0.9723 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9778 (Tuesday's high), then 0.9818 (Monday's one-and-a-half year high), 0.9838 (May 22, 2013 swing high), 0.9972 (July 24, 2012 swing high) and psychological 1.0000 line. Support at 0.9625 (Thursday's low); breach would target 0.9613 (Dec. 1 low), then 0.9593 (Nov. 26 low, near 55-day moving average) and 0.9564 (Nov. 21 low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting five-year high 1.1550 Thursday. Supported by weak oil prices (Nymex crude hit fresh five-year low $58.96/bbl this morning); Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz on Thursday reiterating that lower oil prices would hit the Canadian economy; positive dollar sentiment; waning investor risk appetite. But CAD sentiment soothed by higher-than-expected rise in Canada industrial capacity utilization rate to 83.4% in 3Q, its highest in more than eight years, from an upwardly revised 82.8% in 2Q (versus forecast 83.0%). USD/CAD gains also tempered by positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 1330 GMT Canada October new motor vehicle sales. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.1550 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1666 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of decline from March 9, 2009 high of 1.3063 to July 26, 2011 low of 0.9403), then 1.1724 (July 8, 2009 reaction high). Support at 1.1449 (Thursday's low), then at 1.1430 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 1.1394 (Tuesday's low), then 1.1374 (Dec. 5 low), 1.1336 (Dec. 4 low), 1.1310 (Dec. 1 low) and 1.1293 (55-day moving average).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate. Undermined by reduced investor risk appetite; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY downside limited by demand from Japan importers; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish; five-day moving average looks poised to fall below 15-day moving average. Support at 146.45-146.43 (Thursday's low-Nov. 27 low); breach would target 146.31 (Nov. 25 low), then 145.55 (Nov. 24 reaction low), 144.75 (Nov. 17 low), 144.27 (Nov. 14 low) and 143.52 (Nov. 13 low). Resistance at 148.06 (Thursday's high), then at 148.25 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 148.86 (Tuesday's high), then 149.79 (Monday's six-year high) and psychological 150.00 line--above which would expose upside with no significant resistance until 156.83 (Sept. 22, 2008 reaction high).
EUR/GBP--to trade in lower range. Daily chart mixed as bearish outside-day-range pattern completed Thursday, MACD bearish; but stochastics in bullish mode. Support at 0.7873 (Thursday's low), then at 0.7856 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.7835-0.7828 band (Monday's low-Dec. 3 low), then 0.7794 (Nov. 12 low), 0.7781 (Oct. 2 low) and 0.7758-0.7753 (Sept. 30 reaction low-July 23, 2012 swing low). Resistance at 0.7954 (Thursday's high); breach would target 0.7976 (Dec. 1 high), then 0.8002 (Nov. 21 high) and 0.8027 (Nov. 20 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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December 11, 2014 18:29 ET (23:29 GMT)
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December 11, 2014 18:29 ET (23:29 GMT)
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