USD Bulls Gathering Momentum; JPY Weak

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: The Dec. 8 reaction low at 1.2247 remains the focus of attention, and a push lower is expected. It was Wednesday's plunge below 1.2370 that put EUR bears back in control, having consigned Tuesday's 1.2570 peak to bull failure status, and the structure of the decline from 1.2570 indicates additional risk to 1.2180. Layers of resistance hamper scope for corrective gains, and only above 1.2378 would provide respite.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: The 119 level has been exceeded, keeping USD bulls on track for 119.80. This week's recovery from Tuesday's 115.56 low has also surpassed the midpoint of the broader 121.86 to 115.56 corrective decline, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 120.08, along with Market Profile resistance at 120.41, should come into view during the coming sessions. It would take a reversal below 118.75 to question the bullish outlook.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bullish.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Wednesday's marginal 15-month low at 1.5541 remains vulnerable, despite Thursday's rally. This week's sharp decline from Tuesday's 1.5784 bull failure peak is threatening to extend the broader powerful downtrend, and a push below 1.5541 would expose 1.55 and the broader-term downside objective at 1.5432. Resistance at 1.5715 would have to be surpassed in order to lift the tone, to re-open the 1.5784 peak.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Thursday's push to a 29-month high at 0.9848 extends the powerful underlying uptrend that targets parity in the broader-term. For the near-term, Thursday's 0.9848 high remains vulnerable, and a fresh wave of USD bull pressure would forge out further gains to the August 2012 peak at 0.9898. Corrective downside risk will attract strong support while above 0.9745.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: This week's plunge from 0.8002 has the December low at 0.7833 within striking distance. Thursday's decisive push and close below 0.79 indicates the increase i EUR bear momentum, and the rising support line of a twelve-week bear pennant continuation pattern at the 0.7833 low is likely to be broken in the coming sessions. This would then expose the November low at 0.7800 and the 2014 low at 0.7767. Resistance at 0.7910 limits scope for corrective gains.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: Strength during Friday's Asian session resolves a three-day pennant formation to the upside, indicating further gains. Friday's push higher towards resistance at 147.00 strengthens Tuesday's 144.96 low, and the completed pennant pattern produces a measured upside objective in the 148.50 area. Key support lies at 145.61, which has protection at 145.95 and 146.06.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Falls back from Thursday's spike high to 1.2098. That 1.2098 high is likely to remain intact in the coming sessions, and support at 1.2032 is set to face renewed pressure. The downward drift from 1.2098 targets a break below 1.2032, which would expose the recent 1.2008/15 congestion area.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: The corrective rally from Wednesday's four-and-a-half year low at 0.8107 is struggling to make much headway. Resistance at 0.8204 would have to be surpassed in order to create additional upside scope to 0.8242. However, strong resistance at 0.8220 on this week's Market Profile chart is unlikely to give way. Loss of 0.8138 would bring the 0.8107 low back into the immediate picture, threatening a downtrend extension to 0.8040.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        December 19, 2014 02:19 ET (07:19 GMT)

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