(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting six-day low 117.90 Tuesday. Undermined by selling of yen crosses amid diminished risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 4.79% to 14.89, S&P 500 fell as low as 2,034.17 overnight before closing roughly flat at 2,056.59 versus precious close of 2,060.31) as investor sentiment soured after China on Tuesday unexpectedly tightened credit conditions to rein in lending, triggering a 5.31% plunge in Shanghai Composite for sharpest fall in five years; while fears over the integrity of the European monetary union were reignited after Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samara moved forward a high-stakes parliamentary vote for president. USD/JPY also weighed by lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.216% versus 2.257% late Monday); broadly weaker USD undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 88.67 versus 89.10 early Tuesday); Japan exporter sales. But USD sentiment soothed by stronger-than-expected rise in U.S. NFIB index of small business optimism to 98.1 in November from 96.1 in October (versus forecast 96.5); bigger-than-expected 0.4% increase in U.S. October wholesale inventories (versus forecast +0.3%); rise in U.S. IBD/TIPP economic optimism index to 48.4 in December from 46.4 in November. USD/JPY losses also tempered by demand from Japan importers; Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy. Yen crosses vulnerable to 0130 GMT China November CPI (forecast +1.6% on-year), PPI (forecast -2.4% on-year) data. Other data: 2350 GMT Japan November corporate goods price index, Japan 4Q business outlook survey; 0500 GMT Japan November consumer confidence survey. Daily chart tilting negative as MACD histogram bars turned negative; stochastics falling from overbought levels; bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit Tuesday. Support at 117.90-117.86 (Tuesday's low-Dec. 1 low); breach would expose downside to 117.22 (Nov. 27 reaction low), then 116.34 (Nov. 18 low) and 115.44 (Nov. 17 low). Resistance at 120.11 (hourly chart), then at 120.35 (hourly chart) and 121.00 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 121.86 (Monday's seven-year high), then 123.66 (July 9, 2007, high) and 124.16 (June 22, 2007, swing high).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting three-day high 1.2448 Tuesday. Supported by broadly weaker USD undertone. But EUR/USD upside limited by euro sales on soft EUR/JPY cross amid reduced investor risk appetite; expectations that the European Central Bank would launch further easing measures early 2015; fears about political turmoil in Greece following PM Antonis Samara's decision to call a snap presidential election. If Mr. Samara failed to garner sufficient support to elect a new president, he would have to call a general election, and recent polls have shown the anti-EU Syriza party to be ahead. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics turning bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 1.2448-1.2457 band (Tuesday's high-Thursday's high); breach would target 1.2476 (Dec. 2 high), then 1.2507 (Dec. 1 high) and 1.2524-1.2532 band (Nov. 27 high-Nov. 26 high). Support at 1.2292 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2247-1.2239 band (Monday's low-Aug. 10, 2012, low), then 1.2132 (Aug. 2, 2012, low), 1.2040 (July 31, 2012, swing low) and psychological 1.2000 line.
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting four-year low 0.8221 Tuesday. Undermined by concerns over China growth after credit conditions were unexpectedly tightened Tuesday; soft iron-ore prices (fell $0.30 Tuesday to $69.40/ton); Aussie sales on soft AUD/JPY cross amid decreased investor risk appetite; NAB monthly business survey showing Australia's business confidence fell 4 points on-month to +1 in November while business conditions fell 8 points to +5. But AUD/USD losses tempered by broadly weaker USD undertone. Data focus: 2330 GMT December Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey, 0030 GMT October housing finance approvals, 0300 GMT December monthly leading indicator of employment. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels, five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.8221 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.8086 (June 8, 2010, reaction low), then 0.8065 (May 25, 2010, swing low) and psychological 0.8000 line. Resistance at 0.8370 (Tuesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.8392 (Friday's high), then 0.8429 (Thursday's high), 0.8466 (Dec. 3 high) and 0.8546 (Nov. 28 high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting two-and-a-half year low 0.7606 Tuesday as markets await 2000 GMT (Thursday 9 a.m. NZ time) Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision: RBNZ is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.5%. Kiwi sentiment dented after Fonterra lowered its payout to dairy farmers from a previous forecast of NZ$5.30 to NZ$4.70. NZD/USD also weighed by Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid reduced investor risk appetite. But NZD/USD losses tempered by broadly weaker USD undertone; NZD-USD interest differential. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.7606 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7451 (June 1, 2012, swing low), then 0.7367 (Nov. 25, 2011, swing low). Resistance at 0.7760 (Tuesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.7783 (Friday's high), then 0.7821 (Thursday's high), 0.7889 (Dec. 2 high) and 0.7910 (Dec. 1 high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting three-day high 1.5717 Tuesday. Supported by broadly weaker USD undertone. But sterling sentiment dented by surprise 0.1% on-month drop in U.K. October industrial production (versus forecast +0.2%) and surprise 0.7% on-month drop in U.K. October manufacturing output (versus forecast +0.2%). GBP/USD upside also limited by sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid subdued investor risk appetite. Data focus: 0930 GMT U.K. October global goods trade balance (adjusted balance forecast GBP9.5 billion deficit). Daily chart tilting positive as MACD in bullish mode, stochastics turning bullish. Resistance at 1.5717-1.5725 band (Tuesday's high-Thursday's high); breach would target 1.5743 (Dec. 2 high), then 1.5763 (Dec. 1 high), 1.5825 (Nov. 27 high) and 1.5944 (Nov. 11 high). Support at 1.5624 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5539 (Monday's 15-month low), then 1.5504 (Sept. 2, 2013, low), 1.5426 (Aug. 28, 2013, reaction low), 1.5205 (Aug. 7, 2013, low) and 1.5101 (Aug. 2, 2013, reaction low).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting three-day low 0.9652 Tuesday. CHF sentiment boosted by lower-than-expected Switzerland November unemployment rate of 3.1% (versus forecast 3.2%). USD/CHF also undermined by broadly weaker USD undertone. But USD/CHF downside limited by franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross; ultra-loose Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turned bearish at overbought levels. Support at 0.9652-0.9646 band (Tuesday's low-Thursday's low); breach would target 0.9613 (Dec. 1 low), then 0.9593 (Nov. 26 low, near 55-day moving average) and 0.9564 (Nov. 21 low). Resistance at 0.9778 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.9818 (Monday's one-and-a-half year high), then 0.9838 (May 22, 2013, swing high), 0.9972 (July 24, 2012, swing high), psychological 1.0000 line and 1.0066 (Dec. 1, 2010, reaction high).
USD/CAD--to consolidate after hitting five-year high 1.1500 Tuesday. Undermined by broadly weaker USD undertone; firmer oil prices (Nymex crude settled up at 77 cents at $63.82/bbl Tuesday). But USD/CAD downside limited by loonie sales on soft CAD/JPY cross amid decreased investor risk appetite. Daily chart mixed as MACD & stochastics bullish, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing; but bearish outside-day-range pattern completed Tuesday. Support at 1.1394 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 1.1374 (Friday's low), then 1.1336 (Thursday's low), 1.1310 (Dec. 1 low), 1.1278 (55-day moving average) and 1.1230-1.1221 band (Nov. 27 low-Nov. 24 low). Resistance at 1.1500 (Tuesday's high); breach would reinstate positive near-term view, exposing upside to 1.1666 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of decline from March 9, 2009, high of 1.3063 to July 26, 2011, low of 0.9403), then 1.1724 (July 8, 2009, reaction high).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate with risks skewed lower after hitting six-day low 146.80 Tuesday. Undermined by reduced investor risk appetite; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart tilting negative as MACD in bearish mode, stochastics turning bearish. Support at 146.80 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 146.43 (Nov. 27 low), then 146.31 (Nov. 25 low) and 145.55 (Nov. 24 reaction low). Resistance at 148.35 (hourly chart), then at 148.86 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 149.79 (Monday's six-year high), then psychological 150.00 line--above which would expose upside with no significant resistance until 156.83 (Sept. 22, 2008, reaction high).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
December 09, 2014 18:48 ET (23:48 GMT)
EUR/GBP--to range-trade. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics turned bullish near oversold levels. Resistance at 0.7930 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7941 (Dec. 2 high), then 0.7976 (Dec. 1 high), 0.8002 (Nov. 21 high) and 0.8027 (Nov. 20 high). Support at 0.7856 (Tuesday's low), then at 0.7835-0.7828 band (Monday's low-Dec. 3 low); breach would target 0.7794 (Nov. 12 low), then 0.7781 (Oct. 2 low), 0.7758-0.7753 (Sept. 30 reaction low-July 23, 2012, swing low) and 0.7692 (Oct. 20, 2008, reaction low).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 09, 2014 18:48 ET (23:48 GMT)
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