(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate after hitting near-one-month low 117.53 Tuesday. Undermined by selling of yen crosses amid diminished risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 4.9% to 20.56; S&P 500 closed 0.26% lower at 2,023.03 overnight) as weak U.K. inflation data and fall in oil prices to fresh six-year lows (although oil rebounded strongly into positive territory in late U.S. trading) stoke concerns about global economic growth and disinflation. USD/JPY also weighed by lower shorter-dated U.S. Treasury yields (2-year at 0.537% versus 0.553% late Monday); Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy; positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 92.22 versus 92.06 early Tuesday) after stronger-than-expected rise in U.S. NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism to eight-year high of 100.4 in December from November's 98.1 (versus forecast 98.3); U.S. November job openings and labor turnover survey showing employers advertising more-than-expected 4.972 million job openings (versus 4.863 million forecast), the most in nearly 14 years; rise in U.S. IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index to 51.5 in January from 48.4 in December. Data and event focus: 2350 GMT Japan December money stock; 0600 GMT Japan December preliminary machine tool orders, 1330 GMT U.S. December import price index (forecast -2.9%), 1330 GMT U.S. December retail sales (forecast -0.2%), 1400 GMT Fed's Plosser speech, 1500 GMT U.S. November business Inventories (forecast +0.3%), 1900 GMT U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 117.53 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 116.30 (Dec. 17 low), then 115.56 (Dec. 16 reaction low). Resistance at 118.85 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 119.32 (Monday's high), then 119.88-119.97 band (Friday's high-Thursday's high), 120.68 (Jan. 5 high), 120.74-120.82 band (Jan. 2 high-Dec. 23 high) and 121.00 (Dec. 9 high).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting nine-year low 1.1753 Tuesday. Undermined by heightened expectations for further quantitative easing measures from the European Central Bank at its Jan. 22 meeting after ECB's Coeure said the central bank is in a position to make a decision on a government bond-buying program next week; positive USD sentiment; euro sales on soft EUR/JPY cross amid reduced investor risk appetite; fears of Greece exit from the eurozone were the anti-austerity left-wing Syriza party win snap elections on Jan. 25 and renege on the country's reform program--two fresh polls Tuesday showed Syriza maintaining its lead; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross. Data focus: 1000 GMT eurozone November industrial production. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 1.1753 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1638 (Nov. 17, 2005 swing low), then 1.1375 (Nov. 7, 2003 reaction low). Resistance at 1.1799 (hourly chart), then at 1.1859 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 1.1871 (Monday's high), then 1.1897 (Jan. 7 high), 1.1969 (Jan. 6 high) and 1.2006 (Jan. 5 high).
AUD/USD--to range-trade. Undermined by positive USD sentiment; Aussie sales on soft AUD/JPY cross amid decreased investor risk appetite; soft commodity and iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron fell $0.60 on Tuesday to $67.90/ton). But AUD/USD downside limited by Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross; better-than-expected China December trade data (exports rose 9.7% on-year versus forecast +6.6%, imports fell just 2.4% versus forecast -7%). Data focus: 0030 GMT Australia November job vacancies, November lending finance; 0300 GMT January monthly leading indicator of employment. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing; but stochastics turning bearish. Support at 0.8125 (Tuesday's low), then at 0.8103 (Friday's low); breach would target 0.8067 (Thursday's low), then 0.8031 (Jan. 7 five-and-a-half year low), psychological 0.8000 line and 0.7700 (July 13, 2009 reaction low). Resistance at 0.8197 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.8254 (Monday's high), then 0.8274 (Dec. 15 high), 0.8298 (Dec. 12 high) and 0.8375 (Dec. 11 reaction high, near 55-day moving average).
NZD/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by positive USD sentiment; Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid subdued investor risk appetite; weak commodity prices; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD losses tempered by NZD-USD interest differential. Daily chart mixed as MACD in bullish mode; but stochastics falling from overbought levels. Support at 0.7709 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.7679 (Jan. 6 low), then 0.7616-0.7606 band (Jan. 5 low-Dec. 9 low) and 0.7451 (June 1, 2012, swing low). Resistance at 0.7802 (Tuesday's high); breach would tilt near-term view positive, targeting 0.7864-0.7870 band (Monday's high-Dec. 11 high), then 0.7889 (Dec. 2 high, near 100-day moving average), 0.7910 (Dec. 1 high), 0.7926 (Nov. 27 high) and 0.7947 (Nov. 21 high).
GBP/USD--to trade in higher range. Supported after BOE Gov. Carney suggested Tuesday that there's no need for further monetary stimulus in the U.K. despite the plunge in U.K. inflation--U.K. December CPI came in lower than expected at 0.0% on-month, +0.5% on-year (versus forecast +0.1% on-month, +0.6% on-year). Mr. Carney told the BBC on Tuesday that robust growth means the BOE "is still in a world" where its next move will be to raise interest rates, although weak inflation may mean future increases will be more gradual than officials had thought a year ago. GBP/USD also underpinned by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. But GBP/USD gains tempered by positive USD sentiment; sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid waning investor risk appetite. Data and event focus: 0930 GMT U.K. November CML monthly lending trends, 1415 GMT U.K. Treasury Committee evidence session with Mark Carney on the Financial Stability Report. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 1.5191-1.5193 (Tuesday's high-Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.5273 (Jan. 6 high), then 1.5336 (Jan. 5 high), 1.5584 (Jan. 2 high), 1.5619 (Dec. 31 high) and 1.5665 (Dec. 22 high). Support at 1.5140 (hourly chart), then at 1.5074 (Tuesday's low, matching Friday's low); breach would tilt near-term view negative, targeting 1.5032-1.5026 band (Thursday's low-July 15, 2013 low), then psychological 1.5000 line and 1.4812 (July 9, 2013 swing low).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting four-year high 1.0217 Tuesday. Supported by positive USD sentiment; contagion from weak euro on the Swiss franc; franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross; ultra-loose Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.0217 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.0277 (Sept. 10, 2010 high), then 1.0626 (Aug. 11, 2010 high). Support at 1.0174 (hourly chart), then at 1.0124-1.0114 band (Tuesday's low-Monday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 1.0092 (Jan. 7 low), then 1.0038 (Jan. 6 low), 1.0008 (Jan. 5 low), 0.9932 (Jan. 2 low) and 0.9877 (Dec. 31 low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate after hitting five-and-a-half year high 1.1993 Tuesday. Supported by positive USD sentiment; loonie sales on soft CAD/JPY cross amid receding investor risk appetite; Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Timothy Lane warning Tuesday that a negative impact on the Canadian economy from the decline in oil prices could be meaningful and presents a downside risk to the economy--suggests a possible dovish tilt in the BOC monetary policy stance. But USD/CAD upside limited by rebounding oil prices (Nymex crude rebounded strongly after hitting near-six-year low $44.20/bbl Tuesday, last at $46.06/bbl on Globex). Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD bullish; stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.1993-1.2000 band; breach would expose upside to 1.2200 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of decline from March 9, 2009 high of 1.3063 to July 26, 2011 low of 0.9403), then psychological 1.2500 line. Support at 1.1922 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1832 (Monday's low), then 1.1801-1.1792 band (Friday's low-Thursday's low), 1.1728 (Jan. 6 low), 1.1596 (Jan. 2 low) and 1.1563-1.1557 band (Dec. 31 low-Dec. 17 low).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting two-month low 138.33 Tuesday. Undermined by flows to haven yen amid reduced investor risk tolerance. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 138.33 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 137.80 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of 134.11-149.72 Oct. 16-Dec. 8 advance), then 137.00 (Oct. 30 low). Resistance at 139.79 (hourly chart), then at 140.51 (Tuesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 140.88 (Monday's high), then 141.36 (Friday's high), 141.71 (Thursday's high), 142.71 (Jan. 6 high) and 144.43 (Jan. 5 high).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
EUR/GBP--to trade in lower range. Undermined by contrasting statements on monetary policies from ECB's Coeure and BOE's Carney. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.7753 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.7738 (six-year low hit Jan. 2), then 0.7692 (Oct. 20, 2008 swing low) and 0.7595 (March 10, 2008 low). Resistance at 0.7830 (Tuesday's high, matching Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.7855 (Thursday's high), then 0.7874-0.7877 (Jan. 6 high-Dec. 25 high, near 55-day moving average), 0.7884 (100-day moving average), 0.7930 (Dec. 18 high) and 0.7954 (Dec. 17 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 13, 2015 18:48 ET (23:48 GMT)
January 13, 2015 18:48 ET (23:48 GMT)
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