(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 11.97% to 19.92, S&P 500 closed 1.83% lower at 2,020.58 overnight) as concerns mount over a possible Greek exit from the eurozone, while a renewed slide in oil prices to fresh five-and-a-half year lows and news that German inflation had fallen to a five-year low in December raised an uncertain global growth outlook. USD/JPY also weighed by lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.035% versus 2.123% late Friday); Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy; bullish USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit nine-year high 91.775 Monday, last at 91.39) amid expectations that the U.S. economy will pull ahead of the rest of the world this year and that the Federal Reserve would start raising interest rates in coming months ahead of other major central banks; jump in U.S. ISM-NY business index to 70.8 in December from 62.4 in November. Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan December monetary base, 0135 GMT Markit Japan December services PMI, 0145 GMT HSBC China December services PMI, 1445 GMT Markit U.S. December services PMI, 1500 GMT U.S. November factory orders (forecast -0.8%), 1500 GMT U.S. December ISM non-manufacturing PMI (forecast 58.0 versus November's 59.3). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels, but five-day moving average meandering sideways above rising 15-day moving average. Support at 119.22 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 118.86-118.82 (Dec. 30 low-Dec. 19 low), 118.26 (Dec. 18 low), 116.80 (55-day moving average) and 116.30 (Dec. 17 low). Resistance at 120.68 (Monday's high), then at 120.74-120.82 band (Friday's high-Dec. 23 high); breach would target 121.00 (Dec. 9 high), then 121.86 (seven-year high hit Dec. 8), 123.66 (July 9, 2007 high) and 124.16 (June 22, 2007 swing high).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-nine-year low 1.1861 on EBS Monday. EUR/USD undermined by expectations that the European Central Bank would engage in full-blown quantitative easing early 2015; softer-than-expected Germany December provisional CPI of 0.0% on-month, +0.2% on-year (versus forecast +0.1% on-month, +0.4% on-year); media reports suggesting the German government is ready to let Greece drop out of the eurozone were the anti-austerity left-wing Syriza party win snap elections on Jan. 25 and renege on the country's reform program. EUR/USD also weighed by positive USD sentiment; euro sales on soft EUR/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion; euro sales on soft EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD crosses. Data focus: 0855 GMT Markit Germany December services PMI, 0900 GMT Markit eurozone December composite PMI. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining; stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels. Support at 1.1861 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1823 (Feb. 27, 2006 reaction low), then 1.1638 (Nov. 17, 2005 swing low) and 1.1375 (Nov. 7, 2003 reaction low). Resistance at 1.1976 (hourly chart), then at 1.2006 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2109 (Friday's high), then 1.2170 (Wednesday's high), 1.2188 (Dec. 30 high), 1.2220-1.2226 (Dec. 29 high-Dec. 26 high) and 1.2256 (Dec. 25 high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate after hitting five-and-a-half year low 0.8034 Monday. AUD/USD undermined by positive USD sentiment, weak commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 0.74% Monday at five-and-a-half year low 226.73); Aussie sales on soft AUD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. But AUD/USD downside limited by Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD and AUD/CHF crosses; Aussie demand on soft EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD crosses. Data focus: 0030 GMT Australia November trade balance, 0100 GMT Australia December VFACTS vehicle sales. Daily chart negative-biased as slow stochastic bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.8034 (Monday's low); breach would target psychological 0.8000 line, then 0.7700 (July 13, 2009 reaction low). Resistance at 0.8108 (Monday's high); breach would tilt near-term outlook positive, exposing upside to 0.8184 (Friday's high), then 0.8215 (Wednesday's high), 0.8235 (Dec. 17 high), 0.8274 (Dec. 15 high) and 0.8298 (Dec. 12 high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate after hitting near-one-month low 0.7616 Monday. Undermined by positive USD sentiment, weak commodity prices; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross; Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. But NZD/USD downside limited by NZD-USD interest differential; Kiwi demand on soft EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD crosses. Data focus: 1200 GMT GlobalDairyTrade auction. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & slow stochastic indicators bearish; five-day moving average falling below 15-day moving average. Support at 0.7616-0.7606 band (Monday's low-Dec. 9 low); breach would expose downside to 0.7451 (June 1, 2012, swing low), then 0.7367 (Nov. 25, 2011, swing low). Resistance at 0.7719 (Monday's high); breach would tilt near-term outlook positive, exposing upside to 0.7800 (Friday's high), then 0.7853 (Wednesday's high), 0.7870 (Dec. 11 high), 0.7889 (Dec. 2 high) and 0.7910 (Dec. 1 high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-17-month low 1.5199 Monday. GBP/USD undermined by positive USD sentiment; drop in CIPS/ Markit U.K. construction PMI to 57.6 in December from 59.4 in November; sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion; sterling sales on soft GBP/AUD. GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD crosses. Data focus: 0930 GMT CIPS/Markit U.K. December services PMI, U.K. December official reserves, 4Q Bank of England credit conditions survey. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & slow stochastic indicators bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 1.5199 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5101 (Aug. 2, 2013 reaction low), then 1.5026 (July 15, 2013 low), psychological 1.5000 line and 1.4812 (July 9, 2013 swing low). Resistance at 1.5319 (hourly chart), then at 1.5336 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 1.5584 (Friday's high), then 1.5619 (Wednesday's high), 1.5665 (Dec. 22 high), 1.5682 (Dec. 19 high) and 1.5756 (Dec. 17 high).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting four-year high 1.0108 Monday. USD/CHF underpinned by bullish USD sentiment; weaker--than-expected Switzerland December PMI of 54.0 (versus forecast 54.3); franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross and on buoyant AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF and CAD/CHF crosses; ultra-loose Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish; stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.0108 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.0277 (Sept. 10, 2010 high), then 1.0626 (Aug. 11, 2010 high). Support at 1.0032 (hourly chart), then at 1.0008 (Monday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 0.9932 (Friday's low), then 0.9877 (Wednesday's low), 0.9864 (Dec. 30 low), 0.9842-0.9832 band (Dec. 29 low-Dec. 26 low) and 0.9793-0.9785 band (Dec. 25 low-Dec. 19 low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate in lower range after hitting five-and-a-half year high 1.1833 on EBS Monday. USD/CAD undermined by loonie demand on soft EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD crosses. But USD/CAD losses tempered by bullish USD sentiment; weak oil prices (Nymex crude hit five-and-a-half year low $49.68/bbl Monday before settling down $2.65 at $50.04/bbl); loonie sales on soft CAD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. Data focus: 1315 GMT Canada December official international reserves, 1330 GMT Canada November industrial product & raw materials price indexes. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Support at 1.1739 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1596 (Friday's low), then 1.1563-1.1557 band (Wednesday's low-Dec. 17 low), 1.1545 (Dec. 15 low), 1.1512 (Dec. 12 low) and 1.1449 (Dec. 11 low). Resistance at 1.1833 (Monday's high); breach would reinstate positive near-term view, exposing upside to 1.1951 (May 1, 2009 high), then psychological 1.2000 line and 1.2200 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of decline from March 9, 2009 high of 1.3063 to July 26, 2011 low of 0.9403).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-two-month low 142.29 on EBS this morning. EUR/JPY undermined by weak EUR sentiment; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & slow stochastic indicators bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 142.06 (Nov. 10 low); breach would target 141.51 (100-day moving average), then 140.31 (200-day moving average), psychological 140.00 line (near 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 134.11-149.72 Oct. 16-Dec. 8 advance) and 137.80 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement). Resistance at 142.97 (hourly chart), then at 144.15 (hourly chart) and 144.43 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 145.31 (Friday's high), then 145.57 (Wednesday's high), 146.73 (Dec. 30 high) and 147.23 (Dec. 29 high).
EUR/GBP--to range-trade. Supported by weak CIPS/ Markit U.K. December construction PMI. But EUR/GBP upside limited by expectations of further quantitative easing measures from ECB in early 2015, fears over a possible Greek exit from the eurozone. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics rising from oversold levels. Resistance at 0.7854-0.7857 (Monday's high-Dec. 26 high); breach would target 0.7877 (Dec. 25 high), then 0.7930 (Dec. 18 high) and 0.7954 (Dec. 17 high). Support at 0.7792 (Monday's low), then at 0.7738 (Friday's six-year low); breach would expose downside to 0.7692 (Oct. 20, 2008 swing low), then 0.7595 (March 10, 2008 low).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 05, 2015 18:33 ET (23:33 GMT)
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
January 05, 2015 18:33 ET (23:33 GMT)
#FX
#Forex
#GreekFears
#YenBuoyant
0 Response to "EUR Soft on QE, Greek Fears; Yen Buoyant Mid Risk Aversion -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.