(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting three-day high 119.97 Thursday as markets await 1330 GMT U.S. December non-farm payrolls (expected to have increased by 240,000) and unemployment rate (expected to have slipped to 5.7% from November's 5.8%). USD/JPY underpinned by yen-funded carry trades amid positive risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 11.91 to 17.01; S&P 500 closed up 1.79% at 2,062.14 overnight) as expectations of continued accommodative monetary policy from major central banks stoked investor risk appetite. USD/JPY also supported by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit nine-year high 92.528 Thursday, last at 92.31 versus 92.02 early Thursday); higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.013% versus 1.952% late Wednesday); demand from Japan importers; Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy. But USD sentiment dented by more-than-expected 294,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended Jan. 3 (versus forecast 290,000); less-than-expected $14.08 billion increase in U.S. November consumer credit (versus forecast +$15.0 billion). USD/JPY gains also tempered by Japan exporter sales; positions adjustment ahead of Japan long weekend (financial markets in Japan are shut Monday for a public holiday). Other data and event focus: 2350 GMT Japan December international reserves, 0130 GMT China December CPI (forecast +1.5% on-year), PPI (forecast -3.2% on-year), 0500 GMT Japan November preliminary indexes of business conditions, 1330 GMT U.S. average hourly rate (forecast +0.2%), 1500 GMT U.S. November wholesale Inventories (forecast +0.4%), 1820 GMT Fed's Lacker speaks. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; but stochastics turned neutral. Resistance at 119.97 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 120.68 (Monday's high), then 120.74-120.82 band (Jan. 2 high-Dec. 23 high), 121.00 (Dec. 9 high) and 121.86 (seven-year high hit Dec. 8). Support at 119.17 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 118.45 (Wednesday's low), then 118.05 (Tuesday's low), 117.41 (55-day moving average) and 116.30 (Dec. 17 low).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting nine-year low 1.1754 Thursday as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. EUR/USD undermined by larger-than-expected 2.4% on-month drop in Germany November manufacturing orders (versus forecast -0.8%); softer-than-expected eurozone November PPI of -1.6% on-year (versus forecast -1.4%); weaker-than-expected eurozone December economic sentiment indicator of 100.7 (versus forecast 101.3); expectations for the ECB to engage in full-blown quantitative easing as early as the next ECB monetary policy meeting on Jan. 22; fears of Greece exit from the eurozone were the anti-austerity left-wing Syriza party win snap elections on Jan. 25 and renege on the country's reform program; positive dollar sentiment; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross. But EUR sentiment soothed by stronger-than-expected 0.6% on-month increase in eurozone November retail sales (versus forecast +0.3% on-month). EUR/USD losses also tempered by euro demand on EUR/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 0700 GMT Germany November trade balance (forecast +EUR20 billion), industrial production index (forecast +0.4% on-month). Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining; stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels. Support at 1.1754 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1638 (Nov. 17, 2005 swing low), then 1.1375 (Nov. 7, 2003 reaction low). Resistance at 1.1848 (Thursday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 1.1897 (Wednesday's high), then 1.1969 (Tuesday's high), 1.2006 (Monday's high), 1.2109 (Jan. 2 high) and 1.2170 (Dec. 31 high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate in higher range as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. AUD sentiment boosted by unexpected 7.5% on-month increase in Australian November home-building permits (versus forecast for 3.0% fall). AUD/USD also supported by Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment. But AUD/USD gains tempered by positive dollar sentiment; Aussie sales on soft AUD/NZD cross; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 0030 GMT Australia November retail sales. Daily chart mixed as MACD & stochastics bullish, but five-day moving average still below falling 15-day moving average. Resistance at 0.8130 (Thursday's high); breach would target 0.8157 (Tuesday's high), then 0.8184 (Jan. 2 high), 0.8215 (Dec. 31 high), 0.8235 (Dec. 17 high) and 0.8274 (Dec. 15 high). Support at 0.8067 (Thursday's low); breach would tilt near-term outlook negative, targeting 0.8031 (Wednesday's five-and-a-half year low), then psychological 0.8000 line and 0.7700 (July 13, 2009 reaction low).
NZD/USD--to consolidate in higher range as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Kiwi sentiment boosted by 10.0% increase in New Zealand November building consents (versus October's +8.8%). NZD/USD also supported by firmer dairy prices; Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment; Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross; NZD-USD interest differential. But NZD/USD gains tempered by positive dollar sentiment; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart mixed as MACD and stochastic indicators in bullish mode; but five- and 15-day moving averages meandering sideways. Resistance at 0.7829 (Thursday's high); breach would target 0.7853 (Dec. 31 high), then 0.7870 (Dec. 11 high), 0.7889 (Dec. 2 high) and 0.7910 (Dec. 1 high). Support at 0.7760 (Thursday's low); breach would tilt near-term outlook negative, targeting 0.7711 (Wednesday's low), then 0.7679 (Tuesday's low), 0.7616-0.7606 band (Monday's low-Dec. 9 low), 0.7451 (June 1, 2012, swing low) and 0.7367 (Nov. 25, 2011, swing low).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with soft tone after hitting one-and-a-half year low 1.5032 Thursday as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Bank of England on Thursday kept its benchmark rate at 0.5% and the size of its bond portfolio at GBP375 billion as widely anticipated. GBP/USD soft as market participants pushed back expectations for the timing of BOE rate increases after recent data indicated slowdown in U.K. economy and disinflation. GBP/USD also undermined by positive dollar sentiment. But GBP/USD losses tempered by sterling demand on GBP/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment; sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 0930 GMT U.K. November industrial production (forecast +0.3% on-month, +1.7% on-year) and manufacturing output (forecast +0.3% on-month, +2.3% on-year). Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastic stays suppressed at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 1.5032-1.5026 band (Thursday's low-July 15, 2013 low); breach would target psychological 1.5000 line, then 1.4812 (July 9, 2013 swing low). Resistance at 1.5117 (Thursday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 1.5155 (Wednesday's high), then 1.5273 (Tuesday's high), 1.5336 (Monday's high), 1.5584 (Jan. 2 high), 1.5619 (Dec. 31 high) and 1.5665 (Dec. 22 high).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting four-year high 1.0216 Thursday as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. USD/CHF underpinned by positive dollar sentiment; contagion from weak euro on the Swiss franc; ultra-loose Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. But USD/CHF gains tempered by positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 0645 GMT Switzerland December unemployment, 0815 GMT Switzerland December CPI. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish; stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.0216 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.0277 (Sept. 10, 2010 high), then 1.0626 (Aug. 11, 2010 high). Support at 1.0133 (Thursday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 1.0092 (Wednesday's low), then 1.0038 (Tuesday's low), 1.0008 (Monday's low), 0.9932 (Jan. 2 low) and 0.9877 (Dec. 31 low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate in higher range as markets await 1330 GMT GMT U.S. non-farm payrolls report and Canada December labour force survey (Canadian unemployment rate forecast unchanged at 6.6%; jobs expected to increase by 15,000). USD/CAD supported by positive dollar sentiment. But USD/CAD gains tempered by loonie demand on CAD/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment; firmer oil prices (Nymex crude settled up 14 cents Thursday at $48.79/bbl); positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Other data: 1315 GMT Canada December housing starts, 1330 GMT Canada November building permits. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish; stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.1843 (Thursday's high), then at 1.1873 (Wednesday's five-and-a-half year high); breach would expose upside to 1.1951 (May 1, 2009 high), then psychological 1.2000 line and 1.2200 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of decline from March 9, 2009 high of 1.3063 to July 26, 2011 low of 0.9403). Support at 1.1792 (Thursday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 1.1728 (Tuesday's low), then 1.1596 (Jan. 2 low), 1.1563-1.1557 band (Dec. 31 low-Dec. 17 low), 1.1545 (Dec. 15 low) and 1.1512 (Dec. 12 low).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
EUR/JPY--to consolidate as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. EUR/JPY supported by positive risk sentiment; demand from Japan importers. But EUR/JPY upside limited by weak euro sentiment; Japan exporter sales; positions adjustment ahead of Japan long weekend. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Resistance at 141.71 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 142.71 (Tuesday's high), then 144.43 (Monday's high), 145.31 (Jan. 2 high), 145.57 (Dec. 31 high) and 146.73 (Dec. 30 high). Support at 140.72 (Thursday's low), then at 140.58 (Wednesday's two-month low); breach would target 140.28 (200-day moving average), then psychological 140.00 line (near 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 134.11-149.72 Oct. 16-Dec. 8 advance) and 137.80 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement).
EUR/GBP--to consolidate with bearish bias as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Daily chart mixed as MACD & stochastics in bullish mode, but bearish outside-day-range pattern completed Thursday. Support at 0.7801-0.7792 band (Thursday's low-Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7738 (Jan. 2 six-year low), then 0.7692 (Oct. 20, 2008 swing low) and 0.7595 (March 10, 2008 low). Resistance at 0.7855 (Thursday's high); breach would tilt near-term view positive, targeting 0.7874-0.7877 (Tuesday's high-Dec. 25 high, near 55-day moving average), then 0.7890 (100-day moving average), 0.7930 (Dec. 18 high), 0.7954 (Dec. 17 high) and 0.7977 (200-day moving average).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 08, 2015 18:36 ET (23:36 GMT)
January 08, 2015 18:36 ET (23:36 GMT)
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0 Response to "Major FX Mostly Consolidating Ahead of U.S.Payrolls -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.