(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade in higher range. Spotlight Tuesday on 0200 GMT China 4Q GDP (forecast +7.2% on-year). USD/JPY underpinned by yen-funded carry trades amid positive risk sentiment as European stocks gained Monday (Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2% to 353.18, its strongest close since early January 2008) on prospects for further stimulus measures from the European Central Bank, investors shrugging off the 7.7% plunge in Shanghai Composite Index Monday. USD/JPY also supported by positive USD sentiment after data Friday showed strong rise in University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index to decade-high 98.2 in January; demand from Japan importers; Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy. But USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales. Other data: 0200 GMT China December industrial output (forecast +7.5% on-year), retail sales, fixed assets investment; 1500 GMT U.S. January NAHB housing market index (forecast 58 versus December's 57). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages declining; but stochastics bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 117.79 (Monday's high), then at 117.95 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 118.27 (55-day moving average), then 118.85 (Jan. 13 high), 119.32 (Jan. 12 high), 119.88-119.97 band (Jan. 9 high-Jan. 8 high) and 120.68 (Jan. 5 high). Support at 116.92 (Monday's low); breach would tilt near-term view negative, exposing downside to 115.85 (Friday's low), then 115.56 (Dec. 16 reaction low), 115.44 (Nov. 17 low), 114.88 (Nov. 12 low) and 113.84 (Nov. 10 low).
EUR/USD--to trade with risks skewed higher. Spotlight Tuesday on 1000 GMT Germany January ZEW indicator of economic sentiment (forecast 40.3 versus December's 34.9). EUR/USD supported by euro demand on rebounding EUR/GBP cross; euro demand on buoyant EUR/JPY cross amid subdued risk aversion. But EUR/USD gains tempered by positive USD sentiment; expectations for full blown quantitative easing measures from the European Central Bank at its meeting Thursday; fears of Greece exit from the eurozone were the anti-austerity left-wing Syriza party win snap elections Sunday and renege on the country's reform program. Other data: 0700 GMT Germany December PPI (forecast -1.4% on-year). Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Resistance at 1.1639-1.1649 band (Monday's high-Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1792 (Thursday's high), then 1.1846 (Wednesday's high), 1.1859 (Jan. 13 high), 1.1871 (Jan. 12 high) and 1.1897 (Jan. 7 high). Support at 1.1530 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1459 (Friday's 11-year low), then 1.1375 (Nov. 7, 2003 reaction low) and the psychological 1.1000 line.
AUD/USD--to consolidate in lower range as markets await 0200 GMT China 4Q GDP. AUD/USD undermined by positive USD sentiment. But AUD/USD downside limited by Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/JPY cross amid diminished risk aversion. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Support at 0.8166 (Friday's low); breach would target 0.8130 (Thursday's low), then 0.8066 (Wednesday's low), 0.8031 (five-and-a-half year low hit Jan. 7), psychological 0.8000 line and 0.7700 (July 13, 2009 reaction low). Resistance at 0.8243 (Monday's high), then at 0.8256 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.8295 (Thursday's high), then 0.8342 (55-day moving average), 0.8375 (Dec. 11 reaction high) and 0.8429 (Dec. 4 high).
NZD/USD--to range-trade. Spotlight Tuesday on 1200 GMT NZ GlobalDairyTrade auction. NZD/USD undermined by positive USD sentiment. But NZD/USD downside limited by Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid subdued risk aversion. Kiwi vulnerable to 0200 GMT China 4Q GDP data. Daily chart mixed as MACD in bullish mode, but stochastics neutral, five- and 15-day moving averages meandering sideways, inside-day-range pattern completed Monday. Support at 0.7763 (Monday's low), then at 0.7744 (Friday's low); breach would target 0.7701 (Thursday's low), then 0.7688-0.7679 band (Wednesday's low-Jan. 6 low), 0.7616-0.7606 band (Jan. 5 low-Dec. 9 low) and 0.7451 (June 1, 2012, swing low). Resistance at 0.7808 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.7856 (Friday's high), then 0.7872 (100-day moving average), 0.7890 (Thursday's high), 0.7910 (Dec. 1 high) and 0.7926 (Nov. 27 high).
GBP/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by sterling sales on rebounding EUR/GBP cross; positive USD sentiment. But GBP/USD losses tempered by sterling demand on buoyant GBP/JPY cross amid receding risk aversion. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & slow stochastic indicators bearish. Support at 1.5073 (Friday's low); breach would target 1.5032-1.5026 band (Jan. 8 low-July 15, 2013 low), then psychological 1.5000 line and 1.4812 (July 9, 2013 swing low). Resistance at 1.5179 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.5234 (Friday's high), then 1.5266-1.5273 band (Thursday's high-Jan. 6 high), 1.5336 (Jan. 5 high), 1.5584 (Jan. 2 high) and 1.5619 (Dec. 31 high).
USD/CHF--to trade in higher range. Supported by negative Swiss interest rates; franc sales on cross trades versus major currencies; threat of SNB CHF-selling intervention; positive USD sentiment. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD & slow stochastic indicators bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Resistance at 0.8800 (Monday's high), then at 0.8812 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9139 (hourly chart, near 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of decline from Wednesday's high of 1.0240 to Thursday's low of 0.7360), then 0.9562 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement) and psychological 1.0000. Support at 0.8548 (Monday's low), then at 0.8452 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 0.8350 (Friday's low), then 0.8252 (hourly chart), 0.8043 (hourly chart); psychological 0.8000 line and 0.7360 (Thursday's three-and-a-half year low).
USD/CAD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by loonie demand on buoyant CAD/JPY cross amid improved risk tolerance. But USD/CAD losses tempered by positive USD sentiment; weaker oil prices (Nymex crude last down $1.17 at $47.52/bbl on Globex). Loonie vulnerable to 0200 GMT China 4Q GDP data. Other data: 1330 GMT Canada November monthly survey of manufacturing. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turned bearish at overbought levels. Support at 1.1930 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1893 (hourly chart), then 1.1799-1.1792 band (Thursday's low-Jan. 8 low), 1.1728 (Jan. 6 low), 1.1596 (Jan. 2 low) and 1.1563-1.1557 band (Dec. 31 low-Dec. 17 low). Resistance at 1.1985 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2045 (Friday's five-and-a-half year high), then 1.2200 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of decline from March 9, 2009 high of 1.3063 to July 26, 2011 low of 0.9403) and psychological 1.2500 line.
EUR/JPY--to trade in higher range. Supported by subdued investor risk aversion; demand from Japan importers. But EUR/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages declining; but stochastics turning bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 136.81 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 138.78-138.88 band (Thursday's high-Wednesday's high), then 140.51 (Jan. 13 high), 140.88 (Jan. 12 high), 141.36 (Jan. 9 high) and 141.71 (Jan. 8 high). Support at 135.16 (Monday's low); breach would tilt near-term view negative, targeting 134.70 (Friday's low), then 134.11 (Oct. 16 swing low) and 131.18 (Nov. 7, 2013 low).
EUR/GBP--to trade in higher range. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages declining; but stochastics turned bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 0.7684 (Monday's high, tested this morning); breach would expose upside to 0.7746 (Thursday's high), then 0.7781 (Wednesday's high), 0.7830 (Jan. 13 high) and 0.7855 (Jan. 8 high). Support at 0.7614 (Monday's low); breach would tilt near-term view negative, targeting 0.7593 (Friday's near-seven-year low), then 0.7403 (Feb. 14, 2008 low) and 0.7340 (Jan. 2, 2008 low).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 19, 2015 18:42 ET (23:42 GMT)
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0 Response to "Yen Softer Amid Positive Risk; China 4Q GDP in Focus -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.