AUD Plunges; Sterling Weak

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: Emerges from a bull pennant/symmetrical triangle pattern on the 60-minute chart, which allows for a retest of last week's 1.1423 high. However, resistance at 1.1368 and 1.1400 stand on the upward path shielding that 1.1423 high, and only a concerted wave of EUR bull pressure would manage to force a sustained push higher. Last Thursday's low at 1.1262 marks important support, which has protection at 1.1310.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: Weakness during Tuesday's Asian session gives the bear wave from Monday's 117.88 high a new lease of life. That 117.88 high is now pivotal resistance, and Monday's low at 116.64 is likely to come under pressure. A 1.618 Fibonacci extension target lies just below 116.64, at 116.51. USD bulls would only be enlivened on a break above 117.56.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Resistance at 1.5095 held on Monday, switching the immediate focus onto the recent 1.4953/90 lows. GBP bears are looking to become dominant again, and a break below 1.4990 is expected, exposing January's 19-month low at 1.4953 and threatening a downtrend extension towards 1.4813. Only regaining ground above 1.5095 would negate the bearish outlook, opening 1.5130 and 1.5170.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: The 200-day moving average at 0.9369 is keeping a lid on the two-week recovery. Monday's high at 0.9347 has protection at 0.9300, and a test of support at 0.9235 would create additional corrective downside risk to Friday's low at 0.9170. However, strong support lies at 0.9130 and 0.9075. It would take a concerted wave of USD bull pressure to force a break above 0.9369, opening 0.9435.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Extends the corrective rally from last week's seven-year low at 0.7408, to test the rising resistance line of the bear flag continuation pattern. Monday's strength negated Friday's bearish candle, and a push above 0.7562 would open 0.7595 and 0.7610. However, only above 0.7610 would significantly strengthen the 0.7408 low. Loss of support at 0.7520 would begin to concern short-term EUR bulls, exposing 0.7484.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: Projected support at 132.20 has the responsibility for defending Monday's 132.00 low. Monday's rejection at 133.60 keeps the recent highs at 134.19 and 134.37 out of reach, and a push below 132.00 would create additional downside risk to 131.00/131.15. Last week's 17-month low at 130.16 would then become vulnerable. Recapturing ground above 133.00 is required to re-open the 133.60 high.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: The structure of the bull wave from 0.9788 has room to extend to the 1.0650 area. The completion of the bull pennant continuation pattern on the 60-minute chart offers a measured upside objective that lands close to the 1.0650 intra-day high on Jan. 15; above Monday's 1.0591 high. Support at 1.0468 would have to be broken in order to prompt a corrective setback towards 1.0400, although 1.0305 provides a solid barrier to the downside.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: The push into new five-and-a-half year lows during Tuesday's Asian session targets objectives at 0.7600 and 0.7534. The push below 0.7720 extends the sub-dividing bear wave from the Jan. 13 lower high at 0.8296, generating two downwave equality targets at 0.7600 and 0.7534. Also, scope for broader-term weakness to the 0.7350 has now been signalled. Corrective upside risk is limited to 0.7791, which has protection at 0.7725.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        February 03, 2015 02:34 ET (07:34 GMT)

#FX
#Forex
#AUD_Plunges
#SterlingWeak
#AustralianDollar