EUR Finds Support, JPY Under Bear Pressure

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: The three-week falling resistance line at 1.1411 is a key target for EUR bulls. Friday's strong bounce from 1.1277 keeps the Feb. higher low at 1.1270 intact, and also keeps EUR bulls' hopes alive for a new attack on the bull failure high at 1.1534 that was set in early February. However, to make additional upside scope to 1.1534 available, a break above 1.1411 and 1.1450 is required. Support at 1.1356 and 1.1313 would have to be broken in order to question the near-term bullish outlook, exposing the key 1.1270/77 lows.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: Friday's bullish outside day puts pressure on resistance at 119.27. Friday's bounce from 118.30 is threatening to test the key 119.41/119.42 highs from last week, and a successful break higher would leave the 118.30 low as a truncated bear failure, opening 119.80 and the 120 area. Support at 118.66/118.70 has the responsibility for guarding the 118.30 low, and only a push below 118.30 would put USD bears in control, exposing 118.11.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Consolidates beneath last week's seven-week high at 1.5480, while GBP bull momentum wanes significantly. It was last Wednesday's push to 1.5480 that met a key objective at 1.5454 along the way, and also opened additional risk to 1.5510 and 1.5578. Keeping the 1.5318/25 support area intact is vital to prevent the wave structure of the three-week rally from becoming damaged, guarding 1.5255 and 1.5230.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Friday's definitive rejection of a five-week high at 0.9535 suggests the recovery from the Jan. 15 low at 0.7360 has run its course. Friday's action left a bearish outside day and bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart, and support at 0.9372 is targeted. Further weakness towards 0.9315 is also on offer in the coming sessions, which leaves the higher low at 0.9285 and support at 0.9260 vulnerable. Resistance at 0.9487 and 0.9518 would have to be broken in order to re-open the 0.9535 peak.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Friday's strong bounce from a new seven-year low at 0.7340 suggests a consolidation phase is underway. The recovery to 0.7428 back into the former range produced a bullish outside day and bullish engulfing candle, and upside scope to the Feb. 12 intra-wave lower high at 0.7455 exists. However, only above 0.7455 would strengthen the 0.7340 low. The downtrend-neutralizing doji candle on the weekly chart enhances the current impasse, and the 0.7340 low would only become the focus on a break below 0.7361.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: The decisive rejection of Friday's two-week marginal low at 133.56 brings the focus onto the Feb. 17 lower high at 136.22. Friday's action produced a bull hammer candle, and a break above 136.22 would make the Feb. 12 reaction high at 136.70 accessible. That said, the broader bull wave from the Jan. 26 reaction low at 130.16 has been damaged, indicating broader-term uncertainty. Support at 134.45 and 134.12 defend the 133.56 low.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Friday's bearish outside day and bearish engulfing candle suggests the recovery from the Jan. 15 low at 0.8500 has run its course. The sharp rejection at Friday's 1.0811 high is targeting the 1.0625/50 support area, and a push below 1.0625 is the main objective, creating additional downside risk to the 1.0535 area. The 1.0811 high would only be re-opened on a sustained break above 1.0765.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Remains shy of the key 0.7877 bull failure high that was set on Feb. 6. Thursday's marginal high at 0.7851 would have to be broken in order to re-open the 0.7877 peak, and prospects for a test of 0.7877 remain high while last Thursday's low at 0.7757 holds. A push through 0.7877 would then uncover 0.7909 and 0.7922. Support at 0.7797 and 0.7777 protects the 0.7757 low, while key support lies at 0.7742.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
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        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        February 23, 2015 02:46 ET (07:46 GMT)

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