EUR/USD Eyes Upside; CHF Offered

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: The successful defence of Monday's 1.1319 low should be rewarded with a break above resistance at 1.1450. Near-term EUR bulls will be given a new lease of life on a break above 1.1450, opening the 1.1499 lower high that guards the Feb. 3 bull failure peak at 1.1534. However, a new bull signal would only be given on a break above 1.1534, threatening to generate additional scope to 1.1785 in the broader-term. Support at 1.1368 and 1.1350 have the responsibility for protecting the 1.1319 low.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: A key measured downside objective has been met on the way to setting the 118.42 low during Thursday's Asian session. Wednesday's action completed a double-top pattern at the 119.42/119.41 highs, and the push lower keeps the bear tone from the Feb. 11 reaction high at 120.48 intact. Loss of 118.42 would bring Monday's 118.11 low back into the immediate picture, which is a key level because that 118.11 low is a bear failure. Therefore, loss of 118.11 would signal further weakness to 117.05 at least. Resistance at 118.88 and 119.25 would have to be recaptured, to question the USD bearish outlook.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Wednesday's push into seven-week highs above 1.5439 has room to extend to 1.5510 on the Market Profile charts. Meeting the important 1.5454 upside target bolsters the recovery from the Jan. 23 base at 1.4953, and the sub-dividing bull wave has also generated two wave equality targets at 1.5544 and 1.5578. The onus is on GBP bulls to meet those targets and validate the base. Support at 1.5410 guards the large vacuum to 1.5350 on Wednesday's Market Profile chart.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Pushes sharply higher through 0.9347, to target 0.9475 and 0.9515. It was Tuesday's upward breach of 0.9347 that completed an ascending triangle pattern on the 60-minute chart, and the symbolic 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the broader 1.02400 to 0.7360 decline lies at 0.7475. However, the 0.9515 measured objective provides a more likely area for a peak. Weakness will attract support while above 0.9368.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Set a new seven-year low at 0.7349 on Wednesday, although moves back into the range above 0.7373 to question the downside break. The push lower to 0.7349 touched the influential 260-period supportive moving average at 0.7365 on the monthly chart, but EUR bears will remain in control while the recently-completed four-day bear pennant continuation pattern caps the upside at the pattern's 0.7455/0.7443 highs. The broader-term downtrend is still on track for 0.7265 and beneath, where the support line of a long-term bear channel lies.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: Last week's reaction high at 136.70 remains at risk, despite Wednesday's setback. That's because the mid-point of Tuesday's sharp gains is providing support at 135.08, and a test of Tuesday's 136.22 high would enhance an upside break to last week's 136.70 high. On the other hand, loss of 135.08 would suggest a consolidation phase between Tuesday's bear trap low at 133.96 and the 136.70 high is developing.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: The upwave equality target at 1.0781 is within striking distance, following this week's break above 1.0650 for the first time since Jan. 15. The structure of the bull wave from the Feb. 9 higher low at 1.0414 indicates upside scope beyond the minimum upside requirement target at 1.0781, offering additional scope to 1.0845 and potentially 1.0925. Former range highs at 1.0635 reverse polarity to become support, which has protection at 1.0675 and 1.0710.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Struggles to test the Feb. 6 bull failure high at 0.7877, despite Tuesday's bullish outside day. A bull trap is developing at Thursday's Asian session high at 0.7846, which would be enhanced on a break below Wednesday's 0.7774 low, dragging key support at 0.7742 back into the mix. That 0.7742 support area guards the February lows at 0.7644 and 0.7626. A push into new session highs above 0.7846 should lead to further gains to 0.7877 and bear flag resistance at 0.7895.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        February 19, 2015 02:33 ET (07:33 GMT)

#FX
#Forex
#EUR_USD
#EyesUpside
#CHF_Offered