JPY Threatening Further Gains; GBP Bid

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: Friday's high at 1.1443 and resistance at 1.1468 provides a stumbling block for EUR bulls. That said, a symmetrical triangle base incorporating last week's low at 1.1270 was complimented by the upward breach of a seven-day downtrend resistance line at 1.1423, and the 1.1468 resistance area is the last line of defence protecting the 1.1499/1.1534 highs formed in early February. Strong support lies at 1.1360 on the Market Profile charts, indicating limited downside risk during Monday's U.S. holiday session.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: The powerful decline from last week's 120.48 high is deepening. Monday's Asian session low at 118.11 brings the two downwave equality targets at 118.00 and 117.83 within striking distance, and risk to 117.75 also exists. Furthermore, there is still the single print support vacuum at 117.56 on the Feb. 6 Market Profile chart to fill. USD bulls need to force a break above the intra-wave lower high at 119.20 to question the bearish outlook, and 119.20 has strong protection at 118.96.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Pushes into six-week highs during Monday's Asian session, and is within a whisker of meeting a measured upside objective at 1.5454. The push higher compliments the inverse Head-and-Shoulders base that dominates the daily chart that produced the 1.5454 target, and the Market Profile chart from early January allows for scope to 1.5510. Also, the bull wave from the Feb. 3 higher low at 1.4990 has generated two wave equality targets at 1.5564 and 1.5578. Support at 1.5385/95 indicates limited corrective downside risk, and strong support lies at 1.5270.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Remains within reach of the Feb. 2 reaction high at 0.9347, although USD bulls are still reluctant to commit to a sustained attack. Weakness during Monday's Asian session targets key support at 0.9262 on last week's Market Profile chart, and downside risk to 0.9232 has been generated. However, only a sustained break below 0.9232 would indicate additional weakness to 0.9195 and the range floor at 0.9177 is on the cards. Above 0.9338/47 would spark USD strength towards 0.9500.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Thursday's seven-year low at 0.7373 remains under threat, following weakness during Monday's Asian session. Thursday's bearish outside day high at 0.7455 continues to loom large overhead, and the 0.7373 low is located near the influential 260-period supportive moving average at 0.7365 on the monthly chart, guarding against a downtrend extension towards bear channel support at 0.7265. Friday's high at 0.7434 would have to be broken in order to re-open the 0.7455 intra-wave lower high.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: Friday's high at 136.02 is likely to become a lower high in the coming sessions, putting pressure on support at 134.89. Loss of 134.89 would leave the 136.02 high as a pending bull failure, and the broader bear wave from the Feb. 11 reaction high at 136.70 is threatening to generate a minimum downside objective at 134.02, if last week's low at 134.70 can be broken. Such a move would then signal additional downside risk to the Feb. 4 higher low at 132.55. Recapturing ground above 135.65 is required to provide respite, although only above 136.02 would lift the tone.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Resistance near the important 1.0650 resistance level refuses to budge, and a trading range above 1.0575 is developing. The 1.0650 level is the highest price traded since the SNB scrapped its 1.20 floor on January 15, and a marginal high at 1.0639 was set on Friday. That 1.0639 high marked a 1.618 Fibonacci extension target, dragging Friday's low at 1.0575 back into the immediate picture and threatening a deeper setback towards 1.0520. Only a concerted wave of EUR bull pressure would manage to force a break through 1.0639/50, opening 1.0700.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Holds onto support at 0.7644, to threaten a test of the Feb. 6 bull failure high at 0.7877. Last week's low at 0.7644 defends the key Feb. 3 long-term low at 0.7626, although there is projected upside scope to 0.7889 without damaging the broader AUD downtrend. Resistance at 0.7817 is the last line of defence protecting that 0.7877/89 area. Loss of support at 0.7741 would suggest a return to the 0.7626/44 lows is on the cards this week, threatening a downtrend extension to 0.75.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        February 16, 2015 02:21 ET (07:21 GMT)

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