(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by selling of yen crosses amid diminished risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 1.82% to 14.56, S&P 500 closed 0.03% lower at 2,109.66, DJIA off 0.13% at 18,116.84 overnight) as oil prices extend Friday's losses, U.S. existing home sales fell more-than-expected 4.9% on-month to 4.82 million in January (versus forecast -1.2% to 4.98 million), while caution prevails ahead of Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen's presentation of Monetary Policy Report to U.S. Senate Banking Committee at 1500 GMT. USD/JPY also weighed by lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.059% versus 2.133% late Friday); Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy; broadly firmer dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 94.55 versus 94.30 early Monday) despite weak U.S. existing home sales and worse-than-expected drop in Dallas Fed manufacturing index to -11.2 in February from -4.4 in January (versus forecast -5.5). Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan January services producer price index, 1400 GMT U.S. December S&P / Case-Shiller home price index (20-city forecast +4.5% on-year), 1445 GMT U.S. February flash services PMI (forecast 54.0), 1500 GMT U.S. February Conference Board consumer confidence index (forecast 99.5 versus January's 102.9), 1500 GMT U.S. February Richmond Fed business activity survey (forecast 4 versus January's 6). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics neutral. Support at 118.74 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 118.27-118.23 (Friday's low-Feb. 17 low), then 118.11 (Feb. 16 low), 117.17 (Feb. 6 low), 117.02 (Feb. 5 low) and 116.87 (Feb. 3 low). Resistance at 119.35-119.42 band (Monday's high-Feb. 17 high); breach would tilt near-term view positive, exposing upside to 120.48 (Feb. 11 high), then 120.68 (Jan. 5 high), 120.74-120.82 band (Jan. 2 high-Dec. 23 high), 121.00 (Dec. 9 high) and 121.86 (seven-year high hit Dec. 8).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with risks skewed lower ahead of Fed Chairwoman Yellen's Senate testimony. Euro sentiment dented by weaker-than-expected rise in Germany Ifo business climate index to 106.8 in February from 106.7 in January (versus forecast 107.7). EUR/USD also weighed by broadly firmer dollar undertone; euro sales on soft EUR/JPY cross amid reduced investor risk appetite; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. But EUR/USD losses tempered by diminished worries over Greece after the debt-laden nation and its creditors on Friday agreed to a four-month extension of the country's bailout program. Data and event focus: 0700 GMT Germany 4Q revised GDP (forecast +0.7% on-quarter), 1000 GMT eurozone January final harmonised CPI (forecast -0.6% on-year), 1400 GMT ECB President Mario Draghi speech. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish; but stochastics in bearish mode, five- and 15-day moving averages meandering sideways, inside-day-range pattern completed Monday. Support at 1.1295 (Monday's low), than at 1.1277 (Friday's low) and 1.1270-1.1262 band (Feb. 9 low-Jan. 29 low); breach would expose downside to 1.1224 (Jan. 27 low), then 1.1098 (11-year low hit Jan. 26), psychological 1.1000 line and 1.0760 (Sept. 3, 2003, reaction low). Resistance at 1.1411 (Monday's high); breach would tilt near-term view positive, targeting 1.1428 (Friday's high), then 1.1450 (Thursday's high), 1.1486 (Feb. 6 high), 1.1499 (Feb. 5 high), 1.1534 (Feb. 3 high) and 1.1652 (Jan. 22 high, near 38.2% Fibonacci correction of 1.2569-1.1098 Dec. 16-Jan. 26 impulsive decline).
AUD/USD--to trade with risks skewed lower. Undermined by broadly firmer dollar undertone; Aussie sales on soft AUD/JPY cross amid decreased investor risk appetite; Aussie sales on soft AUD/NZD cross; weak commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 1.24% Monday at 221.96). Data focus: 0030 GMT Australia preliminary 4Q balance of payments. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turning bearish near overbought levels. Support at 0.7778 (Monday's low); breach would target 0.7755-0.7745 band (Thursday's low-Feb. 17 low), then 0.7721 (Feb. 13 low), 0.7641 (Feb. 12 low), 0.7623 (five-and-a-half year low hit Feb. 3) and 0.7449 (May 18, 2009, low). Resistance at 0.7848 (Friday's high); breach would tilt near-term view positive, targeting 0.7875 (Feb. 6 high), then 0.7905 (Jan. 29 high), 0.7957 (downtrend resistance line from Sept. 5 high of 0.9401), 0.8008 (55-day moving average), 0.8025 (Jan. 28 high) and 0.8049 (Jan. 23 high).
NZD/USD--to range-trade. Undermined by broadly firmer dollar undertone; Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid subdued investor risk appetite; weak commodity prices. But NZD/USD downside limited by Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross; NZD-USD interest differential (10-year gap last at 131 basis points). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics bearish at overbought levels. Support at 0.7484-0.7480 (Monday's low-Feb. 17 low); breach would tilt near-term view negative, targeting 0.7430 (Feb. 16 low), then 0.7409 (Feb. 13 low), 0.7312 (Feb. 12 low), 0.7288 (Feb. 4 low), 0.7174 (Feb. 3 low) and 0.7113 (March 17, 2011, reaction low). Resistance at 0.7547-0.7553 band (Monday's high-Friday's high); breach would tilt near-term view positive, targeting 0.7572-0.7582 band (Thursday's high-Jan. 22 high), then 0.7612 (55-day moving average), 0.7709 (Jan. 21 high, near 100-day moving average) and 0.7808 (Jan. 19 high).
GBP/USD--to trade in higher range. Supported by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. But sterling sentiment dented by larger-than-expected fall in U.K. CBI retail sales volume to +1 in February, its lowest since November 2013, from +39 in January (versus forecast +34). GBP/USD gains also tempered by broadly firmer dollar undertone; diminished risk appetite. Event focus: 1000 GMT Bank of England Governor Mark Carney gives evidence to Treasury Committee. Daily chart positive-biased as bullish outside-day-range pattern completed Monday, MACD bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.5473-1.5478 (Monday's high-Wednesday's pivot high); breach would expose upside to 1.5578 (100-day moving average), then 1.5619 (Dec. 31 reaction high) and 1.5682 (Dec. 19 high). Support at 1.5329 (Friday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 1.5314 (Feb. 17 low), then 1.5207 (Feb. 12 low), 1.5195 (Feb. 10 low), 1.5161 (Feb. 5 low), 1.5135 (Feb. 4 low) and 1.4986 (Feb. 3 low).
USD/CHF--to trade in higher range. Supported by franc sales on cross trades versus major currencies; broadly firmer dollar undertone; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, five- and 15-day moving averages advancing; but stochastics bearish at overbought levels. Resistance at 0.9526-0.9535 band (Monday's high-Friday's high); breach would target 0.9547 (100-day moving average), then 0.9562 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0240-0.7360 Jan. 14-Jan. 15 low decline) and psychological 1.0000 line. Support at 0.9383 (Monday's low); breach would tilt near-term view negative, targeting 0.9369 (Friday's low), then 0.9313 (Wednesday's low), 0.9286-0.9277 band (Feb. 17 low-Feb. 16 low), 0.9263 (Feb. 13 low), 0.9251 (Feb. 12 low) and 0.9224 (Feb. 11 low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting seven-day high 1.2624 Monday. USD/CAD supported by weaker oil prices (Nymex crude settled down $1.36 at $49.45/bbl Monday); broadly firmer dollar undertone; loonie sales on soft CAD/JPY cross amid receding investor risk appetite. Event focus: 1900 GMT Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz speech. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics rising from oversold levels, five- and 15-day moving averages meandering sideways. Resistance at 1.2624 (Monday's high); breach would target 1.2645 (Feb. 12 high), then 1.2697 (Feb. 11 high) and 1.2772 (Feb. 2 high). Support at 1.2519 (Monday's low); breach would tilt near-term view negative, exposing downside to 1.2418 (Friday's low), then 1.2359-1.2351 band (Feb. 17 low-Feb. 3 low), 1.2310 (Jan. 22 low), 1.2282 (23.6% Fibonacci correction of 1.0161-1.2799 July 3-Jan. 30 advance), 1.2082 (55-day moving average) and 1.2060 (Jan. 21 low).
EUR/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by weaker euro sentiment after disappointing Germany Ifo February business climate data; flows to haven yen amid diminished risk appetite; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics in bearish mode, five-day moving average meandering sideways above ascending 15-day moving average. Support at 134.45 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 133.56 (Friday's low), then 132.55 (Feb. 4 low), 132.40 (Feb. 3 low), 132.00 (Feb. 2 low) and 130.16 (Jan. 26 swing low). Resistance at 135.94 (Monday's high); breach would tilt near-term view positive, targeting 136.22 (Feb. 17 reaction high), then 136.70 (Feb. 12 high), 137.31 (Jan. 22 high), 137.64 (Jan. 20 reaction high, near 38.2% Fibonacci correction of 149.72-130.16 Dec. 8-Jan. 26 decline) and 138.78-138.88 band (Jan. 15 high-Jan. 14 high).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
February 23, 2015 18:55 ET (23:55 GMT)
EUR/GBP--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting seven-year low 0.7322 Monday. Undermined by weaker euro sentiment after disappointing Germany Ifo February business climate data. Daily chart negative-biased as five- and 15-day moving averages falling, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels. Support at 0.7322 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7087 (Dec. 3, 2007, low), then psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance at 0.7405 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.7427 (Friday's high), then 0.7443 (Feb. 17 high), 0.7459 (Feb. 9 high), 0.7491 (Feb. 6 high), 0.7510 (Feb. 5 high) and 0.7574 (Feb. 4 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 23, 2015 18:55 ET (23:55 GMT)
#FX
#Forex
#Major_FX
#MostlySoft
#YellenTestimony
#AsiaDailyForexOutlook
0 Response to "Major FX Mostly Soft Before Yellen's Testimony -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.