LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
Intraday EUR/USD: Remains trapped in a range between Tuesday's 1.1270 low and resistance at 1.1359. The short-term action is also confined within a bear channel beneath last week's bull failure high at 1.1534, and resistance at 1.1359 has become a pivotal level. However, layers of resistance above 1.1359 line up to defend the 1.1499/1.1534 highs, with notable internal resistance at 1.1409/22 and 1.1468 expected to cap the upside. Renewed bear pressure on 1.1270 should lead to a push lower towards the bear channel's falling support line at 1.1225, threatening additional downside risk to 1.1170.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/JPY: Soared to a five-week high at 120.48 on Wednesday, and USD bulls are targeting 120.82. The 120.48 high will remain vulnerable while projected support at 119.58 holds, and a single print support vacuum exists at 119.96 on Wednesday's Market Profile chart. Resistance at 120.82 is important, because it is the last line of defence protecting the December 2014 peak at 121.86 - its highest since July 2007. Only a sustained break below 119.58 would suggest a secondary peak has been made, exposing 119.16 and 118.81.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
Intraday GBP/USD: Tuesday's bullish outside day low at 1.5197 is back under threat, following Wednesday's setback from 1.5299. Loss of 1.5197 would extend the bear wave from last Friday's 1.5352 peak, while creating additional downside risk to 1.5144 within a corrective bull flag continuation pattern. Failure to hold onto the bull flag would then question the recently-completed inverse Head-and-Shoulders base pattern on the daily chart, signalling downside risk to 1.5110 and 1.5075. Recapturing ground above 1.5260 is required to re-open the 1.5299 high, opening 1.5315 and the 1.5352 peak.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Resistance at 0.9312 is set to come under pressure, as the recovery from last Friday's low at 0.9177 gathers momentum. That 0.9177 low is likely to become a significant bear failure, and confirmation would be achieved on a break above 0.9312, paving the way for further gains to the Feb. 2 reaction high at 0.9347. Support at 0.9262 has become a pivotal level, guarding 0.9248 and 0.9232.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/GBP: Rejecting a seven-year low at 0.7385 on Wednesday indicates scope for a push higher. Wednesday's action produced a bullish outside day and a bull hammer candle on the daily chart, and a break above 0.7448 would clear the path for further gains towards 0.7470 and 0.7510. The 0.7385 low is located near the influential 260-period supportive moving average on the monthly chart, guarding 0.7265.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Pushes strongly into three-week highs above 135.35, and further gains to 137.76 have been signalled. The upward break through 135.35 this week strengthens the Feb. 4 higher low at 132.55, while extending the broader bull wave from the Jan. 26 base at 130.16. The 137.76 objective is a wave equality target, which would become accessible on a push into new session highs above 136.70. The former range high at 135.35 reverses polarity to become support, and backup lies at 134.75 and 134.30.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Range.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Remains below the pivotal 1.0530 level, which caps the recovery from Monday's 1.0414 low. That 1.0530 level makes the mid-point of the broader 1.0642 to 1.0414 decline, coinciding with a wave equality target and Monday's peak. Therefore, a concerted wave of bull pressure would be needed to force a break above 1.0530, opening 1.0550 and 1.0595. Weakness will attract support while above 1.0480, guarding Wednesday's low at 1.0439.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: A decisive push lower occurred on Wednesday, which is extending into Thursday's session. The Feb. 3 reaction low at 0.7626 is now within striking distance, and last Friday's 0.7877 high has been confirmed as a significant bull failure. Loss of 0.7626 would set new near five-year lows, exposing 0.7500 and 0.7451. A new downwave equality target at 0.7241 would also be issued. A single print resistance vacuum exists at 0.7711 on Thursday's Market Profile chart, guarding 0.7729 and 0.7751. However, corrective upside risk is limited to 0.7751.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 12, 2015 02:45 ET (07:45 GMT)
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