USD Losses Support; GBP Winning Friends

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: Thursday's push and close above 1.1359 brings resistance at 1.1468 into view. A symmetrical triangle base incorporating this week's low at 1.1270 was completed on Thursday, and the push higher extended through a seven-day downtrend resistance line at 1.1423 during Friday's Asian session. That 1.1468 resistance area is the last line of defence protecting the 1.1499/1.1534 highs formed in early February. Solid support lies at 1.1360 on this week's Market Profile chart, which has protection at 1.1410 and 1.1394.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: The downward breach of 118.51 indicates that the bear wave from Wednesday's 120.48 high has further to run. Two minimum downside requirement targets at 118.00 and 117.79 lie beneath Friday's Asian session low at 118.41, and bears will remain in control of the near-term while resistance at 119.21 caps the upside. Also, there is still a single print support vacuum at 117.56 on the Feb. 6 Market Profile chart to fill. Recapturing ground above 119.21 is required to provide respite, opening 119.43.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Thursday's strong bounce from 1.5211 has licence to test resistance at 1.5510. Thursday's bullish outside day completed a four-day bullish consolidation pattern, complimenting the inverse Head-and-Shoulders base that dominates the daily chart. That trend-reversal pattern has a measured upside objective at 1.5454 to meet, while the Market Profile chart from early January allows for scope to 1.5510. Weakness will attract support while above 1.5270, which has protection at 1.5360 and 1.5310.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Remains within reach of the Feb. 2 reaction high at 0.9347, although USD bulls appear reluctant to commit a sustained attack. The setback from 0.9338 on Thursday is challenging key support at 0.9262 on this week's Market Profile chart, and downside risk to 0.9232 has been generated. However, only a sustained break below 0.9232 would indicate additional weakness to 0.9195 and the range floor at 0.9177 is on the cards. Above 0.9338/47 would spark USD strength towards 0.9500.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Recovers from another seven-year low at 0.7373 on Thursday, although that session's bearish outside day high at 0.7455 looms large. The 0.7373 low is located near the influential 260-period supportive moving average at 0.7365 on the monthly chart, guarding against a downtrend extension towards bear channel support at 0.7265. Projected resistance at 0.7470 would have to be broken in order to lift the tone.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: The recovery from Thursday's spike low at 134.70 is trapped beneath resistance at 136.00. This week's three-week high at 136.70 will remain out of reach while 136.00 caps, and a push into new session lows below 135.24 would spark fresh bear pressure on the 134.70 low. That said, the broader bull wave from the Feb. 4 higher low at 132.55 does allow for weakness to 133.90, without damaging the wave structure from the Jan. 26 base at 130.16. Recapturing ground above 136.00 and 136.30 is required to re-open the 136.70 high.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Pressure builds on the important 1.0650 resistance level - the highest level traded since the SNB scrapped its 1.20 floor on January 15. Thursday's 1.0638 highs marks the high-point of the recovery from Monday's 1.0414 low, and a corrective setback is underway towards the 1.0520 support area. Keeping 1.0520 support intact would spark a fresh attack on the 1.0650 resistance area, threatening an upside break towards 1.0700 and 1.0750. Only below 1.0520 would question the bullish outlook, exposing 1.0480.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: This week's AUD weakness has failed to put serious pressure on the Feb. 3 long-term low at 0.7626. Support emerged at 0.7644 on Thursday, and the upward breach of 0.7780 during Friday's Asian session suggests Monday's bull failure high at 0.7877 is not totally out of reach. However, resistance at 0.7801 and 0.7843 will look to offer the 0.7877 high protection. Congestive support between 0.7741 and 0.7752 guard the session low at 0.7724, and only below 0.7693 would cause concern amongst near-term AUD bulls.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        February 13, 2015 02:27 ET (07:27 GMT)

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