USD Recovering Its Poise, JPY Struggling

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: Monday's second consecutive failure to close above a short-term downtrend line highlights strong resistance at 1.1443. Those failures bring the focus back onto the symmetrical triangle base incorporating last week's low at 1.1270, while keeping the bull failure high at 1.1534 in early February isolated. That 1.1270 low would become the focus on a break below Monday's 1.1319 low, and loss of 1.1270 would put EUR bears in control, exposing the 1.1170/85 support area. Recapturing ground above 1.1380 and 1.1410 is required to re-open Friday's 1.1443 high.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: Projected resistance a 118.90 needs to hold, if USD bears are to remain in control of the near-term. The powerful decline from last week's 120.48 high is struggling to maintain its momentum, although only above 118.90/118.96 would strengthen Monday's low at 118.11, while opening the 119.20 lower high. However, the 118.11 low will remain vulnerable while 118.90/118.96 caps the upside, threatening 118.00 and 117.75. Furthermore, there is still the single print support vacuum at 117.56 on the Feb. 6 Market Profile chart to fill.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Plunges from a six-week high at 1.5439 on Monday, having failed to meet a key upside objective at 1.5454. Monday's plummet produced a bearish outside day and bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart, and a break below 1.5348 would generate additional downside scope to the 1.5270/85 support area. Resistance at 1.5405 shields the 1.5439 high.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Pressure continues to build on the Feb. 2 reaction high at 0.9347, and an upside break is expected in the coming sessions. An ascending triangle pattern is developing on the 60-minute chart, and the pattern's low at 0.9261 defends the Feb. 6 low at 0.9177. A concerted wave of USD bull pressure would manage to force a break higher towards the triangle's measured upside objective at 0.9415. Support at 0.9285 helps to defend the 0.9261 low.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Last Thursday's seven-year low at 0.7373 remains under threat, following Monday's weakness. Last Thursday's bearish outside day high at 0.7455 continues to loom large overhead, and the 0.7373 low is located near the influential 260-period supportive moving average at 0.7365 on the monthly chart, guarding against a downtrend extension towards bear channel support at 0.7265. Monday's high at 0.7426 would have to be broken in order to re-open the 0.7455 intra-wave lower high.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: The bounce from Tuesday's Asian session low at 133.96 is targeting resistance at 134.90. That bounce from 133.96 suggests the bear wave from last Thursday's peak at 136.70 is forging a base above key projected support at 133.90. Keeping 133.90 intact would maintain the robust wave structure of the broader bull wave from the Jan. 26 reaction low at 130.16, and a break above 134.90 would open congestive resistance between 135.30 and 135.65 - effectively the last area of defence protecting the 136.70 high. Only a reversal below 133.96 and 133.90 would put bears back in control, exposing 133.00 and the Feb. 4 higher low at 132.55.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Monday's weakness highlights the weight behind resistance at 1.0650. The push lower to 1.0553 produced a bearish outside day, and the broader bull wave from the Feb. 9 reaction low at 1.0414 is undergoing a retracement. That said, support at 1.0520 would have to be broken in order to threaten a deeper setback towards 1.0480, which shields the 1.0414 low. Recapturing ground above 1.0600 and 1.0625 is required to re-open the 1.0650 high.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Pierces the 0.7800 level during Tuesday's Asian session, in an attempt to re-open the Feb. 6 bull failure high at 0.7877. The strong bounce from the session low at 0.7742 looks to build on the recovery from last Thursday's 0.7644 low, and a break above 0.7817 and 0.7843 would make the 0.7877 high accessible. It would take a push below 0.7712 to leave the 0.7644 low vulnerable, defending the important Feb. 3 long-term low at 0.7626.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
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        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        February 17, 2015 02:23 ET (07:23 GMT)

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