(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate. Underpinned by reduced safe-haven appeal of yen amid improved global risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 7.34% to 19.43; S&P 500 closed 1.3% higher at 2,020.85 overnight) as oil prices surged for second straight day and investors shook off data showing slowing activity in U.S. and China manufacturing sectors. USD/JPY also supported by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY upside limited by Japan exporter sales; weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.57 versus 94.67 early Monday) on worse-than-expected drop in U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI to 53.5 in January (versus forecast 54.3) from 55.1 in December, and weaker-than-expected 0.4% rise in U.S. December construction spending (versus forecast +0.8%). Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan January monetary base, 1445 GMT U.S. January ISM-NY business index, 1500 GMT U.S. December factory orders (forecast -2.5%), 1500 GMT U.S. February IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index. Daily chart mixed MACD bearish, but stochastics neutral, five- and 15-day moving averages meandering sideways. Resistance at 117.88 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 118.50 (Thursday's high), then 118.66 (Jan. 27 high), 118.82-118.87 (Jan. 23 high-Jan. 20 high), 119.32 (Jan. 12 high) and 119.88-119.97 band (Jan. 9 high-Jan. 8 high). Support at 117.10 (hourly chart), then at 116.64 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 115.85 (Jan. 16 low), then 115.56 (Dec. 16 reaction low), 115.44 (Nov. 17 low) and 114.87 (100-day moving average).
EUR/USD--to trade with risks skewed higher. Supported by weaker USD sentiment after disappointing U.S. January ISM manufacturing PMI data; euro demand on buoyant EUR/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment; euro demand on buoyant EUR/GBP cross; Greece Finance Minister Varoufakis saying Athens would no longer call on creditors to write off part of Greece's EUR315 billion in foreign debt, but would instead ask for a "menu of debt swaps" to ease the burden. But EUR/USD upside limited by European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. Data focus: 1000 GMT eurozone December PPI. Daily chart tilting positive as stochastics rising from oversold levels, MACD staging bullish crossover against its exponential moving average. Resistance at 1.1363-1.1368 (Monday's high-Thursday's high); breach would target 1.1384 (Wednesday's high), then 1.1423 (Jan. 27 high), 1.1652 (Jan. 22 high), 1.1680 (Jan. 21 high) and 1.1792 (Jan. 15 high). Support at 1.1280-1.1278 (Monday's low-Friday's low); breach would tilt near-term view negative, targeting 1.1262 (Thursday's low), then 1.1224 (Jan. 27 low), 1.1098 (11-year low hit Jan. 26), psychological 1.1000 line and 1.0760 (Sept. 3, 2003, reaction low).
AUD/USD--to trade with risks skewed higher. Spotlight Tuesday on 0330 GMT Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision: many market participants expect the RBA to cut its benchmark cash rate from its record-low 2.5%. AUD/USD underpinned by weaker USD sentiment; Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/JPY cross amid improved risk appetite. But AUD/USD gains tempered by weak iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron fell $0.40 Monday to five-and-a-half year low $61.30/ton); Aussie sales on soft AUD/NZD cross. Other data: 0030 GMT Australia December trade balance, December building approvals. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, 5- & 15-day moving averages falling; but bullish outside-day-range pattern completed Monday, stochastics turning bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 0.7829 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.7905 (Thursday's high), then 0.8025 (Wednesday's high), 0.8049 (Jan. 23 high), 0.8135 (Jan. 22 high) and 0.8233-0.8243 band (Jan. 21 high-Jan. 19 high). Support at 0.7723-0.7717 band (Monday's low-Thursday's five-and-a-half year low); breach would reinstate negative near-term view, targeting 0.7700 (July 13, 2009, reaction low), below which would expose downside to 0.7449 (May 18, 2009, low), then to psychological 0.7000 line.
NZD/USD--to trade in higher range. Underpinned by weaker USD sentiment; Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid reduced risk aversion; Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD gains tempered by shift in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary stance from tightening bias to neutral. Data focus: 1200 GMT NZ GlobalDairyTrade auction. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD bearish; stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Resistance at 0.7323 (Monday's high); breach would target 0.7347 (Thursday's high), then 0.7494 (Wednesday's high), 0.7526 (Jan. 23 high), 0.7582 (Jan. 22 high) and 0.7709 (Jan. 21 high, near 55-day moving average). Support at 0.7234 (Monday's low), then at 0.7213 (Friday's near-four-year low); breach would expose downside to 0.7113 (March 17, 2011, reaction low), then psychological 0.7000 line and 0.6944 (Aug. 25, 2010, low).
GBP/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by sterling sales on buoyant EUR/GBP cross. But GBP sentiment boosted by stronger-than-expected rise in CIPS / Markit U.K. manufacturing PMI to 53.0 in January (versus forecast 52.6) from revised 52.7 in December (originally reported as 52.5). GBP/USD losses also tempered by weaker USD sentiment; diminished risk aversion. Data focus: 0930 GMT U.K. January CIPS / Markit construction PMI. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics in bearish mode. Support at 1.5003 (Monday's low), then at 1.4988 (Friday's low); breach would target 1.4973 (Jan. 26 low), then 1.4948 (one-and-a-half year low hit Jan. 23), 1.4812 (July 9, 2013, swing low) and 1.4344 (June 8, 2010, low). Resistance at 1.5099 (Monday's high); breach would tilt near-term view positive, targeting 1.5162 (Thursday's high), then 1.5222 (Jan. 27 high), 1.5234 (Jan. 16 high), 1.5269-1.5273 (Jan. 14 high-Jan. 6 high) and 1.5336 (Jan. 5 high).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting two-week high 0.9347 Monday. Supported by franc sales on cross trades versus major currencies; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of SNB CHF-selling intervention; bigger-than-expected drop in Switzerland PMI to 48.2 in January from revised 53.6 in December (versus forecast 49.2). But USD/CHF gains also tempered by weaker USD sentiment. Data focus: 0700 GMT Switzerland December trade balance. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 0.9347 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9562 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of decline from Jan. 14 high of 1.0240 to Jan. 15 low of 0.7360; near 100-day moving average), then 0.9596 (55-day moving average) and psychological 1.0000. Support at 0.9197 (Monday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 0.9165 (Friday's low), then 0.9040 (Thursday's low), 0.8980 (Wednesday's low), 0.8933 (Jan. 27 low) and 0.8762 (Jan. 26 low).
USD/CAD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by weaker USD sentiment; firmer oil prices (Nymex crude settled up $1.33 at $49.57/bbl Monday); loonie demand on buoyant CAD/JPY cross amid improved risk tolerance. But CAD sentiment dented by drop in RBC Canada manufacturing PMI to 51.0 in January, its lowest in 21 months, from 53.9 in December. Data focus: 1330 GMT Canada December industrial product & raw materials price indexes. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, 5- & 15-day moving averages advancing; but stochastics turned bearish at overbought levels. Support at 1.2553 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2507 (Thursday's low), then 1.2469 (10-day exponential moving average), 1.2376 (Jan. 27 low), 1.2356 (Jan. 23 low) and 1.2310 (Jan. 22 low). Resistance at 1.2687 (hourly chart), then at 1.2772 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 1.2799 (Friday's near-six-year high), then psychological 1.3000 line and 1.3063 (March 9, 2009, swing high).
EUR/JPY--to trade in higher range. Supported by improved euro sentiment as worries over Greece diminish; receding investor risk aversion; demand from Japan importers. But EUR/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales. Daily chart tilting positive as stochastics rising from oversold levels, MACD staging bullish crossover against its exponential moving average. Resistance at 133.60 (Monday'[s high), then at 134.19 (Friday's high, near 10-day exponential moving average); breach would target 134.37 (Wednesday's high), then 135.05 (Jan. 23 high), 137.31 (Jan. 22 high), 137.64 (Jan. 20 high) and 138.78-138.88 band (Jan. 15 high-Jan. 14 high). Support at 132.80 (hourly chart), then at 132.00 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 130.16 (16-month low hit Jan. 26), then psychological 130.00 line, 129.26 (Aug. 20, 2013, low) and 127.93 (Aug. 12, 2013, low).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
EUR/GBP--to trade in higher range. Supported by diminished worries over Greece after Finance Minister Varoufakis said Athens would no longer call on creditors to write off part of Greece's EUR315 billion in foreign debt. Daily chart tilting positive as bullish outside-day-range pattern completed Monday; stochastics rising from oversold levels; negative MACD histogram bars contracting. Resistance at 0.7565 (Monday's high); breach would target 0.7582 (Jan. 23 high), then 0.7677 (Jan. 22 high), 0.7715 (Jan. 21 high), 0.7746 (Jan. 15 high) and 0.7781 (Jan. 14 high). Support at 0.7472 (Monday's low); breach would tilt near-term view negative, exposing downside to 0.7432 (Jan. 27 low), then 0.7402 (near-seven-year low hit Jan. 26), 0.7340 (Jan. 2, 2008, low) and 0.7087 (Dec. 3, 2007, low).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 02, 2015 18:52 ET (23:52 GMT)
February 02, 2015 18:52 ET (23:52 GMT)
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Thanks for give comment.