EUR Losing Support; CHF Remains Strong

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: Resistance protecting last week's spike high at 1.1037 is preventing a wave equality target at 1.1041 from being met. The sharp setback from Tuesday's 1.1029 high has support at 1.0882 in its sights, and the 1.1029 high is already a pending bull failure. A push below 1.0882 would expose 1.0815 and the higher low at 1.0768, which near-term EUR bulls will have to defend resolutely in order to keep the wave structure of the recovery from 1.0457 intact. Minor resistance at 1.0944 and 1.0981 shield the 1.1029 high from view.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: Tuesday's downward breach of 119.29 generated a new minimum downside requirement target at 118.45. However, the path lower is not hurdle-free, and a wave of concerted USD bear pressure is required to enforce Tuesday's breach. Tuesday's marginal low at 119.22 lies above strong support at 118.93 on both the Market Profile and Volume Profile charts, keeping that 118.45 objective out of reach. Tuesday's trend-neutralizing doji candle would be enhanced on a break above 119.98, opening 120.32 and potentially 120.65.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bullish.
        Intraday GBP/USD: A four-day rising support line is under threat at Wednesday's 1.4833 session low. The failure to recapture the 1.50 level this week led to a bearish engulfing candle on Tuesday, and a break below 1.4833 would lead to a deeper setback towards key support at 1.4760. Last week's near five-year low at 1.4635 would then become vulnerable. The week's high at 1.4982 would only become the focus of attention on a break above 1.4900 and 1.4940.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: The eight-day bear wave extended to 0.9536 on Tuesday, closer to its 0.9492 destination. The bear threat to 0.9492 was signalled by last Thursday's bull failure at 0.9984, and enhanced by Tuesday's break below 0.9629. Tuesday's 0.9536 low will remain vulnerable while projected resistance at 0.9619 holds, and the 0.9492 objective coincides with strong support on the Market Profile charts. Regaining ground above 0.9619 would question the bear threat, and above 0.9640 would offer an additional near-term boost, opening 0.9692 and 0.9732.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Pushes strongly higher, to bring the 0.74 level into focus. It was Monday's push and close above 0.7290 that upgraded the recovery from the Mar. 11 reaction low at 0.7015, and a new minimum upside requirement target has been generated at 0.7436. Furthermore, the wave structure of the two-week advance indicates potential for the 0.7590 area at this stage. Weakness will attract strong support while above 0.7270, which has protection at 0.7300.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: The wave structure from last Thursday's 128.37 low generated a minimum upside requirement target at 131.62. However, Tuesday's setback from 131.52 prevents that 131.62 objective from being met, and EUR bears have support at 130.35 and 130.11 in their sights. Loss of 130.11 would leave the 131.52 high as a pending bull failure, while signalling additional downside risk to the 129.29 higher low. A fresh wave of EUR bull pressure is required to re-open the 131.52 high, creating scope to 133.12.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Tuesday's plunge to 1.0422 upgrades the decline from the late February peak at 1.0811, and more EUR weakness is on the cards. Tuesday's low at 1.0422 remains in trouble, and a push lower would expose the 1.0409 minimum downside requirement target, while threatening a deeper slide to the 1.03 area. Corrective upside risk is hampered by strong resistance at 1.0535.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Tuesday's eight-week high at 0.7939 has been rejected, and support at 0.7839 is targeted. Tuesday's trend-neutralizing doji candle threatens to mark the peak of a near two-week advance from 0.7560, and a bearish expanding triangle pattern is emerging on the daily chart. Loss of 0.7839 would spark a fresh wave of weakness towards 0.7785/90, whilst dragging the week's low at 0.7763 into the picture. Recapturing ground above 0.7894 is required to provide respite, although the 0.7939 high is likely to remain out of reach.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        March 25, 2015 03:32 ET (07:32 GMT)

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