EUR on Its Knees; USD Power Higher

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: The plunge extended to 1.0665 during Wednesday's Asian session, and more weakness is in store. The next downside target lies at 1.0627, where a six-and-a half year bear channel support line lies throughout March, and there are deeper objectives at 1.05 and 1.0360. Resistance at 1.0730 and 1.0753 hampers scope for corrective strength, and solid resistance lies at 1.0821.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: Rejected Tuesday's near eight-year high at 122.04, although only on a temporary basis so far. Resistance at 122.04 has its origin on the semi-annual Ichimoku chart, where the lower lining of the neutral cloud lies at 122.28. A recovery is underway from Wednesday's Asian session low at 120.85, although a break above 121.65 and 121.75 is required to re-open the 122.04 high. The 120.85 low would become vulnerable on a break below 121.11, and below 120.85 would prompt further weakness to the 120.28 area.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bullish.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Remains trapped in a range between Monday's low at 1.5028 and beneath resistance at 1.5145. The impasse comes after the sharp decline from the Feb. 26 reaction high at 1.5550, and a downside resolution is favoured in the coming sessions, exposing the 2015 lows at 1.4990 and 1.4953. Further weakness to the July 2007 base at 1.4813 would then be the main threat. Above 1.5145 is required to provide respite, opening 1.5160 and 1.5195. However, only above last Friday's high at 1.5255 would lift the tone.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: The strong medium-term uptrend reached parity on Tuesday, and further gains are on the cards. Upside momentum is on the increase, and a clean break through 1.0000 would clear the upward path to 1.0090, where a wave equality target lies. Weakness will attract support while above 0.9930, and backup lies at 0.9902.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Continues its push into new seven-year lows, and the end is not yet in sight. The powerful downtrend has broken through the equivalent 1.40 level on the inverse GBP/EUR chart, and EUR/GBP bears have a minimum downside objective at 0.7028 in their sights. Another broader-term objective lies at 0.6961. Recapturing ground above 0.7108 is required just to provide respite, although the 0.7125 resistance level hampers corrective upside scope.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: A low of 129.23 was set during Wednesday's Asian session, its lowest level since August 2013. Tuesday's push and close below 130.16 cemented the late February lower high at 136.70, and EUR bears are targeting the influential 260-period supportive moving average at 128.70 on the weekly chart. The August 2013 low at 127.97 would then come into view. Corrective upside risk is hampered by resistance at 130.75 and 131.35 on Tuesday's Market Profile chart.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Remains in a range between 1.0610 and 1.0811. Tuesday's daily range eclipsed Monday's range to produce a doji candle, epitomising the neutral, non-directional phase. The lower boundary would appear to be the most vulnerable, and 1.0610 would become exposed on a break below last Friday's 1.0640 low. On the flip side, Tuesday's high to 1.0730 would have to be broken to allow a foray higher.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Range.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Pushes into levels last traded in May 2009 during Wednesday's Asian session, enhancing the bearish picture for the AUD dollar. It was Tuesday's push and session close below 0.7626 that cemented the bull failure at the Feb. 26 high at 0.7914, generating a minimum downside requirement target at 0.7275 for the broader-term. For now, a break below 0.7588 would lead to further weakness to the 0.75 level. Resistance a 0.7648 would have to be broken in order to provide respite, but solid resistance at 0.7715 lies overhead.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        March 11, 2015 03:44 ET (07:44 GMT)

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