EUR to Sink Further; USD Index in Uptrend

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: The push into new eleven-and-a-half year lows below 1.1098 is targeting the 1.10 level and beneath. Wednesday's break below 1.1098 cemented the bull failure at the Feb. 3 peak at 1.1534 and a truncated lower high at 1.1450 on Feb. 19, highlighting EUR bear dominance. The September 2003 low at 1.0763 would become the next major downside objective on a clean break below 1.10. Recapturing ground above 1.1055 is required just to provide respite, although layers of resistance indicate limited upside scope to 1.1130.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: Remains within Tuesday's bearish outside day range, while trying to recapture ground above the 120 level. Tuesday's high at 120.27 has further protection a 120.15, and 120.27 marks a three-month falling resistance line connecting the 121.86 and 120.48 peaks. Therefore, it would require a concerted wave of USD bull pressure to force a break above 120.27, opening 120.48. Support at 119.62 and 119.47 guard Tuesday's 119.38 low, and only below 119.38 would put USD bears in control, exposing 118.93.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday GBP/USD: The bear wave from last week's eight-week high at 1.5550 extends sharply towards the Feb. 10 higher low at 1.5197. Wednesday's push below 1.5334 consigned the 1.5550 high to bull failure status, and a push below 1.5197 would lead to a test of the 2015 lows at 1.4953 and 1.4990. Resistance at 1.5310 and 1.5350 would have to be reclaimed in order to offer respite.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Continues to press into seven-week highs above 0.9600, and 0.9695 remains the target for USD bulls. Last Friday's bull hammer candle underpins the current bull wave, and the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the broader 1.0295 to 0.7360 decline lies at 0.9775. The Market Profile charts highlight support at 0.9607 and 0.9550, which has protection at 0.9626.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: A new seven-year low at 0.7237 was set on Wednesday, and further weakness is expected. This new bout of weakness has negated Monday's bullish outside day, and a push below 0.7237 would allow EUR bears to seek out broader-term objectives at 0.7191 and 0.7028. A resistance cluster between 0.7265 and 0.7271 indicates limited scope for corrective EUR strength, guarding Monday's 0.7301 high.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: Downside momentum has increased significantly, and a return to the Jan. 26 reaction low at 130.16 has been signalled. Wednesday's downward breach of 132.57 consigned the Feb. 11 peak at 136.67 to bull failure status, and the sub-dividing bear wave is closing in on a minimum downside objective at 132.11. However, a push below 132.11 is expected, exposing 132.00 and 130.90 initially. Single print resistance at 133.57 on Wednesday's Market Profile chart is likely to remain unclosed, due to protection at 133.05.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Remains in a range between 1.0610 and 1.0811. Last Friday's low at 1.0610 is guarded by Wednesday's 1.0630 low, and last week's 1.0811 high remains out of reach while Tuesday's high at 1.0760 caps. Furthermore, that 1.0811 high would only become the focus of attention on a break above 1.0770 and 1.0800. The structure of the broader bull wave from the Jan. 23 higher low at 0.9776 has not yet been damaged, and only below projected support at 1.0583 would concern EUR bulls.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Wednesday's doji candle tempers Tuesday's bullish outside day. A trading range is developing between 0.7738 and 0.7914, and a break below 0.7797 and 0.7767 would bring Tuesday's low at 0.7752 back into focus, while threatening the Feb. 24 higher low at 0.7738. The high of the range at 0.7914 would become accessible on a break above 0.7861 and 0.7871/89.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Range.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
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        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        March 05, 2015 02:34 ET (07:34 GMT)

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