USD Extends Uptrend; JPY Weak

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: The September 2003 reaction low at 1.0763 is the immediate focus, as the powerful downtrend extends below 1.08 during Tuesday's Asian session. The push lower is part of a broader downtrend that has deeper targets; the nearest of which is the six-and-a half year bear channel support line that lies at 1.0627 throughout March on the monthly chart. The 1.05 level lies below there. Single print resistance at 1.0823 and 1.0845 on Monday's Market Profile chart restrict scope for corrective upside risk, and only above 1.0857 would provide respite.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: Pushes into levels above 121.86 last seen in July 2007, and upside scope to 122.28 has been generated. This week's USD strength puts further distance from the completed three-month bull pennant continuation pattern, and the 122.28 objective is obtained from the semi-annual Ichimoku chart, where the lower lining of the neutral cloud lies. Strong support lies at 121.09, which has protection at 121.63 and 121.24.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bullish.
        Intraday GBP/USD: The recovery from Monday's low at 1.5028 needs to force a break above 1.5145, if it is to be given credence. The rally from 1.5028 is struggling to break above the midpoint of Friday's bearish marubuzo candle at 1.5145, and the broader downtrend from the Feb. 26 peak at 1.5550 is favoured to extend towards the 2015 lows at 1.4990 and 1.4953. Those 1.4953/90 lows are part of an inverse Head-and-Shoulders base pattern that took most of January to complete, so a break below 1.4953 would put GBP bears in complete control. Above 1.5145 is required to provide respite, opening 1.5160 and 1.5195. However, only above Friday's high at 1.5255 would lift the tone.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Upside momentum is on the increase, and parity has been brought back from the wilderness. USD strength during Monday's Asian session is testing the water above the 0.99 level for the first time since Jan. 15, and the broader bull wave from the Feb. 6 intra-wave higher low at 0.9177 has generated a wave equality target at 1.0090. Weakness will attract strong support while above 0.9850, which has protection at 0.9875.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Continues its push into new seven-year lows, and more weakness is on the cards. Minor downside targets at 0.7150 and 0.7128 are not expected to attract much support, and the broader downtrend still has room to 0.7028, where a minimum downside objective lies. Former range lows at 0.7170 reverse polarity to become resistance, and only above 0.7181 would offer additional corrective upside scope to the 0.72 area.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: Tuesday's Asian session high at 131.87 marks a key intra-day resistance level, capping Monday's recovery from 130.71. The midpoint of Friday's bearish marubuzo candle has been breached at 131.70, and a break above 131.87 would pave the way for more gains to 132.00 and 132.30. However, a sustained break above 132.30 is required to put EUR bulls on a much firmer footing. The 130.71 low would become exposed on a break below 131.20, and the Jan. 26 reaction low at 130.16 is still the main objective for broader-term EUR bears.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Remains in a range between 1.0610 and 1.0811. The ability to limit Friday's weakness to 1.0640 should give EUR bulls a lift though, and a break above Monday's 1.0719 high would prompt further gains to 1.0730, threatening 1.0750 and 1.0760. The structure of the broader bull wave from the Jan. 23 higher low at 0.9776 has not yet been damaged, offering the chance of an eventual upside breakout above 1.0811. Only below 1.0630 and 1.0610 would put EUR bears in control, exposing 1.0535.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: The Feb. 3 reaction low at 0.7626 has come under intense pressure during Tuesday's session, and a downside break is expected in the coming sessions. The bear wave from the Feb. 26 bull failure peak at 0.7914 has generated a 1.618 Fibonacci extension target at 0.7590, and loss of 0.7626 would extend the long-term downtrend into levels last seen in May 2009. The 0.75 level is then likely to be tested. Corrective upside risk is hampered beneath 0.7716, and only above 0.7716 would create additional risk to 0.7750.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        March 10, 2015 03:15 ET (07:15 GMT)

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