USD Uptrend Extends; EUR on Back Foot

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: The falling support line of a four-week bear channel is under threat at 1.1160. A downside break below that line is expected to lead to a full retracement to the Jan. 26 reaction low at 1.1098, with the prospect of new eleven-year lows thereafter. Last week's Market Profile chart highlights resistance at 1.1193 and 1.1287, which sandwiches 1.1210 and Friday's 1.1245 high. Only a sustained break above 1.1287 would lift the tone.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: Attempts to recapture the 120 level have been temporarily delayed, although USD bulls remain in control. The 120 level has protection from a near three-month falling resistance line connecting the 121.86 and 120.48 peaks, and a break through 120 would bring the Feb. 11 reaction high at 120.48 within reach. Last week's Market Profile chart highlights strong support at 118.93, yet only a push into new session lows below 119.57 would allow for additional downside risk towards 118.93.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday GBP/USD: The decisive rejection of an eight-week high at 1.5550 on Thursday likely marks the peak of the rally from the Jan. 23 base at 1.4953. That 1.5550 high has already become a pending bull failure, and a break below Friday's 1.5385 low would bring the intra-wave higher low at 1.5334 into the immediate picture. GBP bears need to force a break below 1.5334 to consign the 1.5550 high to bull failure status. Corrective upside risk is restricted by resistance at 1.5458 and 1.5510, guarding the 1.5550 high.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Edges into six-week highs above 0.9546 during Monday's Asian session. A clean break above 0.9546 would offer additional upside risk to 0.9600 and 0.9695, enhancing Friday's bull hammer candle. Strong support lies at 0.9444/50, and corrective weakness has limited scope to 0.9493.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Continues to press into new seven-year lows, sustaining the breach of a long-term falling support line at 0.7265. Last week's plunge through 0.7300 drags downside objectives at 0.7191 and 0.7142 into the immediate picture, projected from intra-wave lower highs at 0.7428 and 0.7591 respectively. Projected resistance lies at 0.7322, close to a former range low at 0.7317.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: Friday's marginal low at 133.45 is back under pressure, following the setback from Friday's 134.26 high. Last Thursday's bearish outside day and bearish engulfing candle dominates the daily chart, and action since the Feb. 12 peak at 136.70 is confined within a bear channel - the falling support line of which lies at 132.80 throughout this week. The 136.70 peak is also a pending bull failure, leaving the Feb. 4 higher low at 132.55 vulnerable. EUR bulls need to force a break above 134.75 to question the bearish outlook.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Recovers from Friday's low at 1.0610, although last week's 1.0811 high remains out of reach. Thursday's weakness indicates the rally from the Jan. 15 base at 0.8500 has run out of steam, and the 1.0610 low will remain vulnerable while resistance at 1.0710 and 1.0745 caps the upside. Loss of 1.0610 would then create sharper downside risk to 1.0535, and potentially 1.0480.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: The Feb. 24 higher low at 0.7738 is back under threat, while resistance at 0.7836 is bolstered. Weakness during Monday's Asian session puts distance from Thursday's four-week high at 0.7914, and a break below 0.7738 would consign that 0.7914 high to bull failure status. Loss of 0.7738 would also signal additional downside risk to the 0.7626/0.7644 reaction lows. Recapturing ground above 0.7836 is required to question the AUD bearish outlook, although the 0.7914 high would only become the focus again on a break above 0.7871 and 0.7889.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Range.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        March 02, 2015 03:28 ET (08:28 GMT)


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