(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting six-day high 120.23 Monday. Underpinned by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.94 versus 97.42 early Monday) after stronger-than-expected 3.1% increase in U.S. pending home sales index to 106.9 in February (versus forecast +0.5%) and larger-than-expected 0.4% rise in U.S. February personal income (versus forecast +0.3%). USD/JPY also supported by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy; yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 3.72% to 14.51; S&P 500 closed up 1.22% at 2,086.24 overnight) amid optimism that any interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve would be gradual, while People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan indicated that China is ready to launch additional monetary easing if inflation continues to slip. But USD sentiment dented by less-than-expected 0.1% rise in U.S. February personal spending (versus forecast +0.2%). USD/JPY gains also tempered by Japan exporter sales. Data focus: 0500 GMT Japan February housing starts and construction orders; 1300 GMT U.S. January S&P / Case-Shiller home price index (20-city index forecast +4.8% on-year); 1345 GMT U.S. March ISM-Chicago PMI (forecast 51.0); 1400 GMT U.S. March Conference Board consumer confidence index (forecast 96.8). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics rising oversold levels. Resistance at 120.23 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 121.20 (March 20 high), then 121.53 (March 17 high) and 121.67 (March 12 high). Support at 119.10 (Monday's low); breach would tilt near-term view negative, targeting 118.93 (Friday's low), then 118.33-118.30 (Thursday's low-Feb. 20 low), 118.11 (Feb. 16 low) and 117.17 (Feb. 6 low).
EUR/USD--to trade with risks skewed lower. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; lingering uncertainty over Greece; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross. But euro sentiment boosted by healthier-than-expected eurozone March economic sentiment indicator of 103.9 (versus forecast 103.0). EUR/USD losses also limited by euro demand on buoyant EUR/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment. Data focus: 0630 GMT Germany February retail sales; 0800 GMT Germany March labour market statistics; 0900 GMT eurozone February jobless rate (forecast 11.2%), 0900 GMT eurozone March flash harmonized CPI (forecast -0.1% on-year). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish; but stochastics bearish near overbought levels, inside-day-range pattern completed Monday. Support at 1.0810-1.0801 band (Monday's low-Friday's low); breach would target 1.0768 (March 23 low), then 1.0650 (March 20 low), 1.0613 (March 19 low), 1.0580 (March 18 low) and 1.0551 (March 17 low). Resistance at 1.0900 (Monday's high); breach would tilt near-term view positive, targeting 1.0949 (Friday's high), then 1.1052 (Thursday's high), 1.1115 (March 5 high), 1.1185 (March 4 high) and 1.1218 (March 3 high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting seven-day low 0.7630 Monday. Undermined by weak iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron fell $1.20 Monday to post-financial crisis low of $52.90/ton); positive dollar sentiment; Aussie sales on soft AUD/NZD cross; Aussie sales on cross trades versus major currencies; residual month-end portfolio hedge adjustments. But AUD/USD losses tempered by positive investor risk appetite. Data focus: 0030 GMT Australia February financial aggregates, private sector credit. Daily chart tilting negative as stochastics falling from overbought levels, positive MACD histogram bars contracting. Support at 0.7630 (Monday's low); breach would target 0.7608 (March 19 low), then 0.7588 (March 18 low), 0.7570 (March 12 low), 0.7558 (near-six-year low hit March 11), 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low) and the psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance at 0.7700 (hourly chart), then at 0.7757 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 0.7834 (Friday's high), then 7.7884 (Thursday's high), 0.7904 (Wednesday's high), 0.7937 (March 24 high) and 0.8025 (Jan. 28 reaction high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting six-day low 0.7481 Monday. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; weak commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 0.42% at 214.25 Monday); 6.3% drop in New Zealand February building consents issued. But NZD/USD losses tempered by Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross; positive investor risk appetite. Data focus: 0000 GMT ANZ New Zealand March business outlook. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics falling from overbought levels. Support at 0.7481 (Monday's low, near 55-day moving average); breach would expose downside to 0.7394 (March 20 low), then 0.7359 (March 19 low), 0.7273-0.7269 (March 18 low-March 12 low), 0.7182-0.7174 band (March 11 low-Feb. 3 low) and 0.7113 (March 17, 2011 reaction low). Resistance at 0.7565 (Monday's high); breach would tilt near-term view positive, targeting 0.7609 (Friday's high), then 0.7663 (Thursday's high), 0.7691-0.7695 (Wednesday's high-March 24 high), 0.7709 (Jan. 21 high) and 0.7808 (Jan. 19 high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting six-day low 1.4751 Monday. Sterling sentiment dented by less-than-expected GBP0.7 billion increase in U.K. February consumer credit (versus forecast +GBP0.9 billion). GBP/USD also weighed by positive dollar sentiment. But GBP/USD losses tempered by sterling demand on buoyant GBP/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment; sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross; stronger-than-expected U.K. March GfK consumer confidence index of +4 (versus forecast +2). Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. January monthly service sector figures, 0830 GMT U.K. 4Q final estimate GDP (forecast +0.5 on-quarter, +2.7% on-year), 0830 GMT U.K. 4Q business investment revised results. Daily chart mixed as stochastics neutral; five-day moving average meandering sideways below declining 15-day moving average. Support at 1.4751 (Monday's low); breach would target 1.4720 (March 20 low), then 1.4685 (March 19 low), 1.4632 (near-five-year low hit March 18), 1.4344 (June 8, 2010 low), 1.4230 (May 20, 2010 swing low) and the psychological 1.4000 line. Resistance at 1.4865 (hourly chart), then at 1.4900 (Monday's high); breach would tilt near-term view positive, targeting 1.4921 (Friday's high), then 1.4993 (Thursday's high), 1.5008 (March 19 high), 1.5134 (55-day moving average), 1.5147 (March 18 high) and 1.5255 (March 6 high).
USD/CHF--to trade with bullish bias. Underpinned by positive dollar sentiment; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. But Swissie sentiment boosted by stronger-than-expected Switzerland March KOF economic barometer of 90.8 (versus forecast 89.1). USD/CHF gains also tempered by franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish at oversold levels, inside-day-range pattern completed Monday. Resistance at 0.9689-0.9693 (Monday's high-Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9812 (March 23 high), then 0.9984 (March 19 high), 1.0069 (March 18 high) and 1.0091 (March 17 high). Support at 0.9598 (Monday's low); breach would tilt near-term view negative, targeting 0.9552 (Friday's low), then 0.9484 (Thursday's low), 0.9444 (Feb. 27 low, near 55-day moving average), 0.9429 (200-day moving average) and 0.9383 (Feb. 23 low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting six-day high 1.2705 Monday. Underpinned by warning from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz in an interview with the Financial Times that a slump in oil prices is having an "atrocious" effect on the Canadian economy in the first quarter. Mr. Poloz added that the central bank still had many options to help the economy if needed, and these included pledges to keep interest rates low for a prolonged period of time as well as asset purchases. USD/CAD also supported by soft oil prices (Nymex crude settled down 19 cents at $48.68/bbl Monday); positive dollar sentiment. But loonie sentiment soothed by bigger-than-expected 1.8% rise in Canada February industrial product price index (versus forecast +0.5%), and 6.1% rise in Canada February raw materials price index (versus forecast +5.0%). USD/CAD gains also tempered by loonie demand on buoyant CAD/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment. Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada January monthly GDP (forecast -0.2%), 1230 GMT Canada January payroll employment, earnings & hours Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics rising from oversold levels. Resistance at 1.2705 (Monday's high); breach would target 1.2723 (March 20 high), then 1.2757 (March 19 high), 1.2834 (six-year high hit March 18), the psychological 1.3000 line and 1.3063 (March 9, 2009 swing high). Support at 1.2631 (hourly chart), then at 1.2591 (Monday's low); breach would tilt near-term view negative, exposing downside to 1.2495 (55-day moving average), then 1.2463 (Friday's low), 1.2406-1.2404 (Thursday's low-March 4 low), 1.2383 (Feb. 26 low), 1.2359-1.2351 band (Feb. 17 low-Feb. 3 low) and 1.2310 (Jan. 22 low).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
March 30, 2015 19:50 ET (23:50 GMT)
EUR/JPY--to trade with bullish bias. Cross supported by positive investor risk appetite; demand from Japan importers. But EUR/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish; but stochastics neutral, inside-day-range pattern completed Monday. Resistance at 130.18 (Monday's high), then at 130.40 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 131.10 (Thursday's high), then 131.41 (Wednesday's high), 131.52 (March 24 high), 131.67 (March 18 high) and 131.87 (March 10 high). Support at 129.67 (hourly chart), then at 129.31 (Monday's low); breach would tilt near-term view negative, targeting 129.05 (Friday's low), then 128.72 (March 20 low), 128.37-128.27 band (March 19 low-March 18 low), 128.11 (March 17 low) and 126.91 (20-month low hit March 13).
EUR/GBP--to trade with risks skewed lower. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish; but stochastics bearish at overbought levels, inside-day-range pattern completed Monday. Support at 0.7288 (Monday's low); breach would target 0.7259 (Friday's low), then 0.7225 (March 23 low), 0.7211 (March 20 low), 0.7147 (March 19 low) and 0.7109 (March 17 low). Resistance at 0.7339-0.7342 (Monday's high-Friday's high); breach would tilt near-term view positive, targeting 0.7385 (Wednesday's high, near 55-day moving average), then 0.7405 (Feb. 23 high), 0.7427 (Feb. 20 high), 0.7443 (Feb. 17 high) and 0.7459 (Feb. 9 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 30, 2015 19:50 ET (23:50 GMT)
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Thanks for give comment.