Asian Morning Briefing: U.S. Stocks Fall

 
LAST CHANGE % CHG
DJIA 17698.18 -77.94 -0.44%
Nasdaq 4880.23 -20.66 -0.42%
S&P 500 2059.69 -8.2 -0.40%
Japan: Nikkei 225 19034.84 -172.15 -0.90%
Hang Seng 25082.75 181.86 0.73%
Shanghai Composite 3810.29 62.4 1.66%
S&P BSE Sensex 28260.14 302.65 1.08%
Australia: S&P/ASX 5860.8 -30.7 -0.52%
UK: FTSE 100 6809.5 36.46 0.54%


PRICE CHG YIELD%
U.S. 2 Year 1/32 0.539
U.S. 5 Year 8/32 1.32
U.S. 10 Year 19/32 1.858
Australia 10 Year -4/32 2.343
China 10 Year 13/32 3.65
India 10 Year 1/32 7.734
Japan 10 Year 7/32 0.381
German 10 Year 4/32 0.143


LAST(MID) CHANGE
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.76 0
Yen (USD/JPY) 119.7 -0.05
S. Korean Won (USD/KRW) 1098.3 0
Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) 6.1953 -0.0013
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.0763 0
WSJ Dollar Index 87.68 -0.02


LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 49.57 1.97 4.14%
Brent Crude 57.76 1.55 2.76%
Gold 1203.6 20.4 1.72%
        MARKETS AT A GLANCE
        (Data as of approximately 5 p.m. ET)
        SNAPSHOT:
        U.S. stocks fell and government bonds rose on weak U.S. economic data. The dollar traded lower against the euro and the yen, while gold prices rallied to a one-month high. Oil prices jumped on signs of a production drop.
        OPENING CALL:
        Stocks in the U.S. and Australia are set to rally, should new U.S. jobs data due this Friday disappoint, predicts Sean Fenton, portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners in Sydney, which manages A$1.75 billion. Investors are increasingly skeptical that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as expected this year. Should payroll numbers confirm the country's limping economic recovery, investors would likely anticipate that U.S. rates stay lower for longer. This, in turn, could sway Australia's central bank to cut interest rates further in order to prevent the Aussie dollar from rising against the U.S. dollar, says Fenton, adding that equities would remain attractive as a consequence.
        EQUITIES:
        Stocks fell after weak economic data added to concerns about U.S. growth at the start of the year.
        The declines follow a tepid start to the year for stocks, with the Dow posting its first quarterly decline in a year. The S&P 500 eked out a quarterly gain of 0.4% and the Nasdaq gained 3.5% in the period, with both indexes notching their ninth quarter in a row of gains. Still, the S&P's first-quarter advance was the smallest in those nine quarters of gains amid weak U.S. economic performance at the start of the year.
        Soft economic reports, such as weaker-than-expected private employment and manufacturing data, dim the outlook for corporate profits. That is adding to nervousness in the stock market ahead of first-quarter earnings season, prompting some investors to sell stocks or buy protection in the options market, traders said.
        The stock market is closed Friday for the Good Friday holiday.
        Health-care stocks in the S&P 500 fell the most, down 1.2%. Half of the S&P's sectors ended in positive territory, led by strong gains in telecommunications stocks. Those stocks, which pay out large dividends, rose 0.8%. Energy stocks in the index rose along with the price of oil, gaining 0.2%.
        In economic news, private payrolls rose by 189,000 in March, according to data compiled by payroll processor Automatic Data Processing Inc. and forecasting firm Moody's Analytics. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected an increase of 225,000 jobs.
        Separately, data showed manufacturing activity slowed for the fifth month in a row. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 51.5 in March from 52.9 in February, coming in lower than expectations of 52.5. The ISM's employment index also dropped, further evidence of a slowdown in the labor market last month.
        The Labor Department on Friday will release its monthly payrolls report. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect employers added 248,000 jobs in March.
        The stronger dollar and lower oil prices are colliding to form a gloomy picture for earnings, especially for multinational and energy companies. First-quarter earnings for companies in the S&P 500 are expected to fall 4.8% from a year earlier, according to FactSet.
        In corporate news, Macerich Co. rejected Simon Property Group Inc.'s "best and final" bid , saying the offer undervalued the company. Simon subsequently withdrew its $16.8 billion offer. Macerich shares fell 6.6% while Simon shares added 1.2%.
        GoDaddy Inc. shares rose 31% above their initial public offering price in their market debut Wednesday. GoDaddy priced its IPO above expectations on Tuesday, at $20 a share.
        In Asian markets Wednesday, China shares gained, extending a whirlwind first-quarter rally, despite a mixed picture of manufacturing activity in the country.
        FOREX:
        The dollar fell against the euro and the yen, as disappointing data suggested a slowing U.S. economy that could delay any increase in interest rates.
        The dollar's slide, which ended a four-day rally, started after payroll processor Automatic Data Processing Inc. and forecasting firm Moody's Analytics reported the U.S. economy added just 189,000 jobs last month, instead of the 225,000 that economists had expected.
        In addition, a survey by the Institute for Supply Management showed U.S. manufacturing slowed for a fifth straight month. ISM's manufacturing purchasing managers index declined to 51.5 in March, from 52.9 a month earlier. Economists had predicted a reading of 52.5.
        The data dented the narrative of a relentlessly improving U.S. labor market, ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for March. Furthermore, the numbers add to recent shaky U.S. economic data, which has contributed to investor worries about the Federal Reserve delaying an expected increase in interest rates to September from midyear.
        "If you consider the numbers we've seen in the first quarter, they're consistent with a downshift in the economy, which could give the Fed pause in tightening policy," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union. "That's negative for the dollar. Much is on the line Friday for nonfarm payrolls and the dollar."
        Economists expect the U.S. to have created 248,000 jobs in March, the 13th straight month of gains of 200,000 or more jobs. The Fed closely monitors the jobs report and inflation numbers in assessing the U.S. economy's health and in determining when to raise interest rates for the first time in almost nine years.
        "It's the first report of the quarter and a key component of the Fed's view of the economy," said Brad Bechtel, managing director at Faros Trading LLC. "A jobs number that arrives in line will give investors more of a sense of certainty for a June Fed rate increase."
        BONDS:
        A fresh slump in U.S. government-bond yields underscores growing concern among investors that the U.S. economy is losing momentum following last year's summer surge.
        For the most part, soft growth in China, Europe and Japan has been the main economic worry over the past year, a period mostly characterized by solid U.S. data and low interest rates that make government bonds attractive.
        But over the past month, a slate of disappointing U.S. economic reports, spanning areas from retail sales to business investment to housing, have pushed up bond prices amid fears that the U.S. economy too could be slowing.
        Accordingly, investors will be looking ever more closely at coming data releases, notably the March nonfarm payrolls report due Friday and the first estimate of U.S. gross domestic product due on April 29.
        How the U.S. economy fares holds the key to when the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates. The Fed has signaled it plans to raise short-term rates for the first time since 2006, yet officials are still split on whether the first move should come in June or later.
        The pullback in U.S. data is starting to sound familiar to some investors, following promising starts in multiple years since the financial crisis that ended with tepid growth. The U.S. economy grew at a 5% clip in the third quarter of 2014 before slowing to 2.2% in the fourth, the government said last week.
        "It is like every time when the Fed tries to raise interest rates, there is a disappointing release that tells them to be patient," said Mark MacQueen, co-founder and portfolio manager in Austin, Texas, at Sage Advisory Services Ltd., which oversees $11 billion in assets.
        The prospect of stronger growth and higher interest rates in the U.S. has prompted investors to buy the U.S. dollar and sell other currencies. The stronger dollar has played a role in slowing growth by making U.S. exports less competitive overseas.
        Many economists said the U.S. economy is in a temporary soft patch, just like what happened last year amid harsh winter weather. They still expect the U.S. economy to pick up speed in coming months, a view echoed by many Fed officials.
        COMMODITIES:
        The benchmark U.S. oil price jumped to its largest one-day gain in nearly two months as traders seized on a sign that U.S. crude production could be nearing a peak.
        The rate of U.S. crude-oil output fell last week for the first time since January, based on preliminary data, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.
        The decline could indicate that an oil glut, which sent prices to a six-year low earlier this year, is easing, some traders and analysts said.
        Energy companies have announced billions of dollars of spending cuts, and for months have pulled back on the number of rigs used for drilling oil wells.
        (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

        April 01, 2015 17:30 ET (21:30 GMT)

        Investors, traders and analysts are closely watching for signs that these cutbacks in investments are leading to a slowdown--or even decline--in production, a process that usually takes months. New technology and efficiency gains have allowed producers to boost output by pumping more oil from existing wells, rather than drilling new ones.
        U.S. oil output slipped by 0.4%, or 36,000 barrels a day, last week from multidecade highs the previous week, according to the EIA.
        Ben Ross, co-portfolio manager for Cohen & Steers Inc., noted the drop but said he would wait to see a sustained decline in U.S. output before wagering on prices rising.
        "Everybody's producing as much as they can right now," from U.S. firms to members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Mr. Ross said. "I can't put too much credence into one weekly data point."
        The weekly EIA data is often revised in monthly reports. In its latest monthly report released this week, the EIA reported that crude-oil production fell to 9.2 million barrels a day in January, from 9.3 million barrels a day in December.
        A weaker dollar also boosted oil prices. Oil is traded in dollars and becomes cheaper for buyers using foreign currencies when the dollar weakens.
        In addition, negotiations over Iran's nuclear program appear to have hit a roadblock, boosting the likelihood that sanctions limiting Iranian crude exports would remain in place.
        In the precious metals market, gold prices rallied to a one-month high on hopes that lackluster U.S. labor market data would push the Federal Reserve to delay raising interest rates.
        TODAY'S HEADLINES:
        U.S. Manufacturing Slows for Fifth Straight Month
        U.S. manufacturers stumbled to close out the first quarter amid a tough winter and the rising dollar, but economists believe the sector will rebound during the spring along with the broader economy.
        Private Sector Jobs Up Only 189,000 in March
        Private payrolls in the U.S. rose by 189,000 jobs in March, according to employment report compiled by ADP and Moody's Analytics. The number was far below expectations; economists had projected 225,000 new jobs added.
        U.S. Auto Sales Fall in March
        GM and Ford posted lower U.S. vehicle sales in March, while Fiat Chrysler posted a 1.7% uptick amid strength in Jeep brand. March included one less selling day than prior-year month, which is likely dragging down auto makers' sales for the period.
        Greece Presents More Detailed Bailout Plan
        Greece made little headway in negotiations toward ending its standoff with its international creditors, leaving the government facing the prospect of at least another month without new financing and starved for cash.
        Macerich Rejects Simon Property's Takeover Bid
        Macerich rejected the "best and final" bid from Simon Property Group, which promptly withdrew its $16.8 billion offer, ending for now the possible combination of rival mall operators in the United States.
        Iran, West Struggle Toward Nuclear Deal
        Nuclear talks between Iran and six world powers remained bogged down as senior Western and Iranian diplomats sought to make decisive progress on the outlines of a final deal in the coming hours.
        McDonald's to Raise Hourly Pay for 90,000 Workers
        McDonald's plans to raise pay for workers by more than 10% and add benefits like paid vacation, an effort to rejuvenate the struggling fast-food giant that offers fresh evidence of rising wage pressure in the American labor market.
        GoDaddy's Shares Jump in Market Debut
        Shares of GoDaddy, a technology provider to small businesses, jumped as much as 34% in their market debut as investors piled into the company known nearly as much for its racy television commercials as it is for selling Web domains.
        Puerto Rico Utility Bondholders Unveil $2 Billion Plan
        Bondholders of Puerto Rico's cash-strapped power utility unveiled a revitalization plan, days after the authority reached another agreement with creditors to push back a deadline to extend some loans.
        Lufthansa, Insurers, Pledge Quick Settlement After Plane Crash
        Relatives of victims of the Germanwings Flight 9525 that crashed in the French Alps last week can expect a complete, fair and swift settlement of insured costs, although final assessments will take some time, the insurers of the flight and Germanwings parent Deutsche Lufthansa pledged.
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        TODAY'S CALENDAR:
        (All times GMT, followed by country and event)
        2300 SKA Feb Balance of payments
        2330 AUS Mar TD Securities Monthly Inflation Gauge
        2350 JPN Mar Monetary Base
        0030 AUS Feb International Trade in Goods & Services
        0030 AUS Feb Job Vacancies
        0230 HK Mar Hong Kong Whole Economy PMI
        0300 SKA Q1 Corporate Loans
        0500 IND Mar India Manufacturing PMI
        0800 ITA Q4 General Govt Quarterly Accounts
        0830 UK Mar CIPS / Markit Construction PMI
        1000 FRA Feb OECD CPI
        1130 EU ECB accounts of its last monetary policy discussions
        1130 US Mar Challenger Job-Cut Report
        1230 US 03/28 Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
        1230 US U.S. Weekly Export Sales
        1230 CAN Feb International merchandise trade
        1230 US Feb U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
        1240 US Janet Yellen speech at Community Development Research Conference
        1300 SIN Mar Singapore Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
        1345 US Mar ISM-NY Report on Business
        1345 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
        1400 US Feb Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
        1400 US 03/21 DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer
        1430 FRA OECD Economic Survey of France launch
        1430 US 03/27 EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
        2030 US Foreign Central Bank Holdings
        2030 US Federal Discount Window Borrowings
        2030 US Money Stock Measures
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        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        April 01, 2015 17:30 ET (21:30 GMT)

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