EUR Bears in Control; JPY Strong

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: The Mar. 16 reaction low at 1.0457 remains under threat, following the completion of a double-top pattern late last week. The push below 1.0713 left the recent 1.1052/1.1036 peaks stranded, generating a measured downside objective at 1.0374 that lies beneath the 1.0457 low. Layers of resistance indicate limited scope for corrective gains, and only above 1.0636 would provide respite.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: Support at 119.66 is under threat, following the sharp rejection from Monday's 120.84 high. That 120.84 high is a bull trap, and a break below 119.66 would bolster the 120.84 high, while threatening a deeper retreat to 119.50 and 119.20. Recapturing ground above 120.03 and 120.22 is required to question the bearish outlook, opening 120.60.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday GBP/USD: The corrective bounce from Monday's near five-year low at 1.4568 is likely to struggle while resistance at 1.4765 caps the upside. It was last Thursday's plunge below 1.4806 that completed an imperfect bear pennant continuation pattern on the daily chart, and the broader bear wave is expected to extend to the May 2010 low at 1.4229. The pennant pattern's measured downside objective lies at 1.4287. Respite would only be achieved on a break above 1.4765, but only above 1.4885 would question the bearish outlook.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Monday's bear hammer candle high at 0.9862 stalls the six-day recovery from 0.9483. That 0.9862 high is close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the broader 1.0128 to 0.9483 decline, and a break below support at 0.9758 would prompt a deeper setback towards 0.9730 and potentially 0.9635. However, only below 0.9630 would concern bulls at this stage. The 0.9862 high would be re-opened on a break above 0.9830.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: The 0.72 level has been breached to the downside during Tuesday's Asian session, bolstering the double-top pattern on the daily chart. It was Monday's bearish outside day that left the recent 0.7385/0.7379 highs stranded, exposing 0.7183 and 0.7155 initially, while generating a measured downside objective at 0.7061. Resistance at 0.7216 and 0.7245 guard Monday's 0.7265 high.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: The medium-term downtrend is pushing into levels last traded in June 2013, following this week's sustained push below 126.91. This push lower leaves the Apr. 6 high at 131.30 as a truncated bull failure, increasing the likelihood that a downwave equality target at 121.50 will be met further down the line. Resistance at 126.95 and 127.50 indicates limited scope for corrective EUR strength.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Support at 1.03 has come within striking distance, and further weakness is in store. The steady push lower is extending the decline from the Feb. 20 peak at 1.0811, and a 1.618 Fibonacci extension target at 1.0234 lies close to a former range high at 1.0250 that has reverted to support. Corrective upside risk is likely to struggle while 1.0365/80 resistance caps the upside.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Monday's plunge leaves the Apr. 2 reaction low at 0.7533 vulnerable. Monday's push below 0.7637 bolstered last Thursday's peak at 0.7741, and despite scope for a corrective recovery towards 0.7650 during Tuesday's session, Monday's low at 0.7552 is set to come under renewed pressure during the coming sessions. A push below 0.7552 would expose the 0.7533 low, while threatening to extend the broader-term downtrend towards equality targets at 0.7345 and 0.7298. It would take a clean break above 0.7650 to question the AUD bearish outlook.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Range.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        April 14, 2015 02:20 ET (06:20 GMT)

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