By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Intraday EUR/USD: Resistance at 1.0713/16 is capping the recovery from Monday's 1.0520 low. Single print resistance at 1.0716 on last week's Market Profile chart assists the former range low at 1.0713, and it was the push below 1.0713 last week that completed a double-top pattern at the recent 1.1052/36 peaks, generating a measured downside objective at 1.0374. To meet that 1.0374 objective would mean a push into new twelve-year lows below the Mar. 16 low at 1.0457. The 1.0713/16 resistance area would come into view on a clean break above 1.0662.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/JPY: The recovery from Tuesday's 119.07 low is preventing a bear flag continuation pattern from completion. The recovery is consolidating the sharp setback from Monday's 120.84 peak, and the 119.07 low will remain vulnerable while resistance at 119.84 and 120.12 cap the upside. Loss of 119.41 would expose the 119.07 low, threatening the flag lows at 118.71 and 118.33.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
Intraday GBP/USD: The bounce from Monday's near five-year low at 1.4568 is trying to regain a foothold above 1.48. However, the move is consolidating the bear wave from last week's 1.4980 high, and that decline completed an imperfect bear pennant continuation pattern on the daily chart, putting bears in control of broader-term. That suggests the 1.4568 low will remain vulnerable while resistance at 1.4885 caps the upside. Loss of support at 1.4675 and 1.4605 would re-expose the 1.4568 low, and the pennant pattern's measured downside objective lies at 1.4287.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Recovered from 0.9672 on Tuesday, to target resistance at 0.9755. However, to combat the bear wave from Monday's 0.9862 high, USD bulls would have to force a break above 0.9795. Intra-wave support at 0.9720 is the area to break in order to re-expose the 0.9672 low, while threatening a deeper setback towards 0.9635.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Intraday EUR/GBP: The double-top pattern on the daily chart indicates weakness to 0.7061 is on the cards during the coming sessions. It was Monday's bearish outside day that left the recent 0.7385/0.7379 highs stranded, and the Mar. 25 peak at 0.7385 is a pending bull failure. Loss of Tuesday's 0.7183 low would prompt further weakness to 0.7155, and below 0.7155 would cement the bull failure. Resistance at 0.7220 and 0.7245 guard Monday's 0.7265 high.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Range.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Rejected a 22-month low at 126.08 on Tuesday, offering scope for a corrective recovery. The 126.08 low marks the base of the impulsive bear wave from the Apr. 6 high at 131.30, and resistance at 127.63 is the immediate target. Above 127.63 would open 128.15 and 128.55, although there is still single print resistance at 128.87 on the Apr. 9 Market Profile chart that impedes corrective upside risk. The 126.08 low has protection at 126.95 and 126.35.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Stages an impressive recovery from Tuesday's ten-week low at 1.0297, that allows room for corrective gains towards 1.0410. However, the counter-trend rally would have to force a break above 1.0450 to make the Apr. 6 intra-wave lower high at 1.0495 accessible. The 1.0297 low has protection at 1.0330.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: The Apr. 2 reaction low at 0.7533 remains vulnerable. Monday's plunge below 0.7637 bolstered the Apr. 9 peak at 0.7741, and the double-bottom lows at 0.7552/55 on the 60-minute chart are braced for renewed bear pressure. Loss of 0.7552/55 would leave Tuesday's 0.7650 high stranded, generating a minimum downside requirement target at 0.7463, while threatening to extend the broader-term downtrend towards more equality targets at 0.7345 and 0.7298. It would take a clean break above 0.7650 to question the AUD bearish outlook, which has protection at 0.7634.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Range.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 15, 2015 02:20 ET (06:20 GMT)
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