JPY, CHF Bulls in Control

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: Consolidates beneath Friday's 1.0849 high, indicating a test of support at 1.0749 and 1.0733. The move is consolidating the sub-dividing bull wave from the Apr. 13 low at 1.0520, and downside risk exists to 1.0715 within a bull flag continuation pattern. Regaining ground above 1.0801 is required to re-open Monday's current session high at 1.0833, threatening 1.0849 and potentially 1.0909, where single print resistance lies on the Market Profile charts.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.
        Intraday USD/JPY: Friday's low at 118.56 has been breached, and a sustained push lower is expected. Last week's weakness completed a short-term bear flag continuation pattern on the daily chart, indicating further weakness to the bear flag low-point at 118.33. Furthermore, the bear wave from the Mar. 10 peak at 122.04 would generate scope to 117.13, should that 118.33 low break. Monday's Market Profile chart indicates resistance at 118.78 and 118.89 would have to be broken, in order to re-open the session high at 119.04.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Friday's bear hammer candle puts support at 1.4918 at risk. Friday's strong rejection of a four-week high at 1.5052 suggests a break below 1.4918 should be expected, exposing 1.4875 and 1.4805, while offering additional downside risk to 1.4780. It would take a recovery above 1.5015 to make the 1.5052 high accessible.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: The Apr. 3 reaction low at 0.9483 is now the focus, following last week's weakness. The wave structure of the decline from the Apr. 13 peak at 0.9862 has been upgraded, and a minimum downside requirement target lies at 0.9459. Backup support lies at 0.9400. Congestive resistance between 0.9600 and 0.9640 will hamper scope for corrective gains, which is guarded by 0.9560.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Friday's successful defence of the 0.7164 low puts near-term EUR bulls in the ascendancy. Last Thursday's bear trap and bullish outside day reversal suggests a short-term base is forming, and a break into new session highs above 0.7230 would open resistance at 0.7246. However, EUR bulls need to force a break above last week's high at 0.7265 to drag the 0.7385/79 peaks in from the distance. The 0.7164 low is guarded by support at 0.7191.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: Weakens sharply from 128.80 during Monday's Asian session, and support at 127.20 is targeted. The strong setback from 128.80 keeps single print resistance at 128.87 on the Market Profile charts unclosed, and a break below 127.76 would produce a bearish outside day candle, exposing 127.20. Recapturing ground above 128.35 is required to question the bearish outlook, opening 128.80/128.87.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: The medium-term downtrend extended to 1.0264 on Friday, and further weakness is on the cards. The decline from Feb. 20 peak at 1.0811 is gathering pace, and the 1.0234/50 support area is the main target area. Resistance at 1.0305 and 1.0335 indicates limited scope for corrective EUR gains.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Resistance at 0.7844 is set to give way during Monday's session, as AUD bulls remain in control of the short-term. The strong bull wave from last week's 0.7552 low completed a double-bottom base at the recent 0.7533/52 lows, and the pattern's measured upside objective lands at 0.7949. Before 0.7949 lies a 1.618 Fibonacci extension target at 0.7892, close to strong resistance at 0.7874 on the Market Profile charts. Support at 0.7778 guards single prints at 0.7722 and 0.7687 on last Thursday's Market Profile chart, indicating limited scope for corrective downside risk.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Range.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
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        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        April 20, 2015 02:33 ET (06:33 GMT)