(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate after hitting seven-day high 120.37 Tuesday. Underpinned by broadly firmer dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 98.43 versus 97.94 early Tuesday) on Fed's Lacker's comment that there is a "strong case" for the U.S. central bank to begin raising short-term interest rates at its June policy meeting; stronger-than-expected U.S. Conference Board March consumer confidence index of 101.3 (versus forecast 96.8). USD/JPY also supported by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD sentiment dented by weaker-than-expected U.S. March ISM-Chicago PMI of 46.3 (versus forecast 51.0); smaller-than-expected 4.6% on-year rise in U.S. January S&P / Case-Shiller 20-city home price index (versus forecast +4.8%). USD/JPY upside also limited by Japan exporter sales; lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.926% versus 1.961% late Monday); unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 5.38% to 15.29, S&P 500 closed 0.88% lower at 2,067.89 overnight) as caution prevails ahead of Friday's critical U.S. March non-farm payrolls report, while concerns about Greece persist and oil prices fall. Yen crosses vulnerable to 0100 GMT CFLP China March manufacturing PMI (forecast 49.7); 0100 GMT CFLP China March non-manufacturing PMI; 0145 GMT HSBC final China March Manufacturing PMI. Other data: 2350 GMT Japan 1Q Tankan survey of enterprises; 0135 GMT Markit Japan March manufacturing PMI; 1215 GMT U.S. March ADP national employment report (forecast +225,000); 1345 GMT Markit final U.S. March manufacturing PMI (forecast 55.0); 1400 GMT U.S. February construction spending (forecast -0.1% on-month), 1400 GMT U.S. March ISM manufacturing PMI (forecast 52.5 versus February's 52.9). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics rising oversold levels. Support at 119.77 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 119.10 (Monday's low), then 118.93 (Friday's low), 118.33-118.30 (Thursday's low-Feb. 20 low), 118.11 (Feb. 16 low) and 117.17 (Feb. 6 low). Resistance at 120.37 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 121.20 (March 20 high), then 121.53 (March 17 high) and 121.67 (March 12 high).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting seven-day low 1.0713 Tuesday. Undermined by persistent concerns about Greece; surprise drop in eurozone core harmonized CPI to +0.6% on-year in March from +0.7% in February (versus forecast +0.7%); European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; broadly firmer dollar undertone; euro sales on soft EUR/JPY cross amid reduced investor risk appetite; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross. But euro sentiment soothed by larger-than-expected 15,000 drop in Germany March unemployment (versus forecast -12,000). Data focus: 0755 GMT Markit/BME Germany March manufacturing PMI (forecast 52.4); 0800 GMT Markit final eurozone March manufacturing PMI (forecast 51.9). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish but stochastics in bearish mode. Support at 1.0713 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0650 (March 20 low), then 1.0613 (March 19 low), 1.0580 (March 18 low) and 1.0551 (March 17 low). Resistance at 1.0775 (hourly chart), then at 1.0846 (Tuesday's high); breach would tilt near-term view positive, exposing upside to 1.0900 (Monday's high), then 1.0949 (Friday's high), 1.1052 (Thursday's high), 1.1115 (March 5 high) and 1.1185 (March 4 high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting nine-day low 0.7588 Tuesday. Undermined by weak iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron fell $1.90 Tuesday to post-financial crisis low of $51.00/ton); broadly firmer dollar undertone; Aussie sales on soft AUD/JPY cross amid decreased investor risk appetite; Aussie sales on soft AUD/NZD cross. Data focus: 0030 GMT Australia February building approvals (forecast -4.0%); 0530 GMT Australia March commodity price index. Daily chart negative-biased as stochastics bearish; MACD histogram bars turned negative; five-day moving average falling below 15-day moving average. Support at 0.7588 (Tuesday's low, matching March 18 low); breach would target 0.7570 (March 12 low), then 0.7558 (near-six-year low hit March 11), 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low)--below which there is no significant support until the psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance at 0.7664 (Tuesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 0.7757 (Monday's high), then 0.7834 (Friday's high), 0.7884 (Thursday's high), 0.7904 (March 25 high) and 0.7937 (March 24 high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting seven-day low 0.7454 Tuesday. Undermined by broadly firmer dollar undertone; weak commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 1.12% at 211.85 Tuesday); Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid subdued investor risk appetite. But NZD/USD losses tempered by Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross. Data focus: 1200 GMT NZ GlobalDairyTrade auction. Daily chart tilting negative as stochastics falling from overbought levels, positive MACD histogram bars contracting. Support at 0.7454 (Tuesday's low,); breach would expose downside to 0.7394 (March 20 low), then 0.7359 (March 19 low), 0.7273-0.7269 (March 18 low-March 12 low), 0.7182-0.7174 band (March 11 low-Feb. 3 low) and 0.7113 (March 17, 2011 reaction low). Resistance at 0.7511 (Tuesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 0.7565 (Monday's high), then 0.7609 (Friday's high), 0.7663 (Thursday's high), 0.7691-0.7695 (March 25 high-March 24 high) and 0.7709 (Jan. 21 high).
GBP/USD--to range-trade. Sterling sentiment boosted by stronger-than-expected U.K. 4Q final estimate GDP of +0.6 on-quarter, +3.0% on-year (versus forecast +0.5 on-quarter, +2.7% on-year). GBP/USD also supported by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. But GBP/USD upside limited by broadly firmer dollar undertone; waning investor risk appetite. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. March CIPS / Markit manufacturing PMI (forecast 54.3 versus February's 54.1). Daily chart mixed as stochastics bullish; but MACD in bearish mode, inside-day-range pattern completed Tuesday. Support at 1.4752-1.4751 (Tuesday's low-Monday's low); breach would target 1.4720 (March 20 low), then 1.4685 (March 19 low), 1.4632 (near-five-year low hit March 18), 1.4344 (June 8, 2010 low) and 1.4230 (May 20, 2010 swing low). Resistance at 1.4871 (Tuesday's high); breach would tilt near-term view positive, targeting 1.4900 (Monday's high), then 1.4921 (Friday's high), 1.4993 (Thursday's high), 1.5008 (March 19 high), 1.5127 (55-day moving average) and 1.5147 (March 18 high).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting six-day high 0.9760 Tuesday. Underpinned by broadly firmer dollar undertone; franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. Data focus: 0730 GMT Switzerland March PMI (forecast 47.2). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics rising from oversold levels. Resistance at 0.9760 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.9812 (March 23 high), then 0.9984 (March 19 high), 1.0069 (March 18 high) and 1.0091 (March 17 high). Support at 0.9653 (Tuesday's low); breach would tilt near-term view negative, exposing downside to 0.9598 (Monday's low), then 0.9552 (Friday's low), 0.9484 (Thursday's low), 0.9444 (Feb. 27 low), 0.9432 (confluence of 55-day and 200-day moving averages) and 0.9383 (Feb. 23 low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate in lower range after hitting nine-day high 1.2783 Tuesday. Loonie sentiment boosted by smaller-than-expected 0.1% on-month contraction in Canada January GDP (versus forecast -0.2%). But USD/CAD losses tempered by broadly firmer dollar undertone; soft oil prices (Nymex crude settled down $1.08 at $47.60/bbl Tuesday); receding investor risk appetite. Data focus: 1330 GMT RBC Canada March manufacturing PMI; 1430 GMT EIA weekly petroleum status report. Daily chart mixed as stochastics bullish; but MACD in bearish mode, bearish shooting-star candlestick pattern completed Tuesday. Support at 1.2648 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2591 (Monday's low), then 1.2508 (55-day moving average), 1.2463 (Friday's low), 1.2406-1.2404 (Thursday's low-March 4 low), 1.2383 (Feb. 26 low) and 1.2359-1.2351 band (Feb. 17 low-Feb. 3 low). Resistance at 1.2732 (hourly chart), then at 1.2783 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2834 (six-year high hit March 18), then the psychological 1.3000 line and 1.3063 (March 9, 2009 swing high).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting seven-day low 128.60 Tuesday. Undermined by weak EUR/USD undertone; increased investor risk aversion; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish; but stochastics in bearish mode, bearish outside-day-range pattern completed Tuesday, five-day moving average falling below 15-day moving average. Support at 128.60 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 128.37-128.27 band (March 19 low-March 18 low), then 128.11 (March 17 low) and 126.91 (20-month low hit March 13). Resistance at 129.60 (hourly chart), then at 130.25 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 130.40 (Friday's high), then 131.10 (Thursday's high), 131.41 (March 25 high), 131.52 (March 24 high) and 131.67 (March 18 high).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
March 31, 2015 19:47 ET (23:47 GMT)
EUR/GBP--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting seven-day low 0.7218 Tuesday. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish; but stochastics falling from overbought levels, bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit Tuesday. Support at 0.7218-0.7211 band (Tuesday's low-March 20 low); breach would expose downside to 0.7147 (March 19 low), then 0.7109 (March 17 low), 0.7090 (March 16 low), 0.7031 (March 12 low) and 0.7010-0.7000 band (March 11 seven-year low-psychological line). Resistance at 0.7280 (hourly chart), then at 0.7322 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7339-0.7342 (Monday's high-Friday's high), then 0.7364 (55-day moving average), 0.7385 (March 25 high), 0.7405 (Feb. 23 high) and 0.7427 (Feb. 20 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 31, 2015 19:47 ET (23:47 GMT)
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