(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate in lower range as markets await 1230 GMT U.S. 1Q flash GDP (forecast +1.0%) and 1800 GMT Federal Reserve monetary policy decision: The Fed is expected to stay pat on interest rates but market participants will be looking closely at its statement for any fresh clues about when it will begin raising rates, and how rapidly it may proceed with tightening once it is started. Liquidity thin in Asia on Wednesday as financial markets in Japan are shut for a public holiday. USD/JPY undermined by negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 96.10 versus 96.85 early Tuesday) on surprise drop in U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence index to 95.2 in April from 101.4 in March (versus forecast for rise to 102.5). USD/JPY also weighed by buy-yen orders from Japan exporters. But USD/JPY losses tempered by higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.003% versus 1.924% late Monday); buying of yen crosses amid improved risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 5.41% to 12.41; S&P 500 closed up 0.28% at 2,114.76 overnight); sell-yen orders from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Other data: 1400 GMT U.S. March pending home sales index (forecast +1.0% on-month). Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 118.77 (Tuesday's low, matching Monday's low); breach would target 118.52 (April 20 low), then 118.33-118.30 (March 26 low-Feb. 20 low), 118.11 (Feb. 16 low) and 117.17 (Feb. 6 low). Resistance at 119.20 (Tuesday's high), then at 119.44 (Monday's high); breach would target 119.67 (Friday's high), then 120.10-120.17 band (Thursday's high-April 14 high), 120.84 (April 13 high), 121.20 (March 20 high) and 121.53 (March 17 high).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting three-week high 1.0991 Tuesday. Supported by negative dollar sentiment; euro demand on buoyant EUR/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment; hopes that a reshuffled Greek bailout negotiating team would secure much-needed funding for the debt-laden country. But EUR/USD gains tempered by European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. Data focus: 0800 GMT eurozone March M3 money supply (forecast +4.3% on-year), 0900 GMT eurozone April economic sentiment indicator (forecast 103.9) & business climate indicator (forecast 0.23), 1200 GMT Germany April preliminary EU-harmonized CPI (forecast -0.1% on-month, +0.2% on-year). Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 1.0991 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 1.1036 (April 6 high), then 1.1052 (March 26 high) and 1.1240 (March 2 high). Support at 1.0916 (hourly chart), then at 1.0860 (Tuesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 1.0819 (Monday's low), then 1.0784 (Friday's low), 1.0666-1.0660 band (April 22 low-April 21 low), 1.0624 (April 16 low) and 1.0571 (April 15 low).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting three-month high 0.8027 Tuesday. Supported by negative dollar sentiment; Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/JPY cross amid improved risk appetite; Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross; rising iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron rose $0.50 Tuesday to seven-week high $59.20/ton); month-end portfolio hedge adjustments. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 0.8027 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.8233-0.8243 band (Jan. 21 high-Jan. 19 high), then 0.8295 (Jan. 15 reaction high) and 0.8375 (Dec. 11 high). Support at 0.7940 (hourly chart), then at 0.7830 (Tuesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 0.7790 (Monday's low), then 0.7762 (Friday's low), 0.7708-0.7701 band (Thursday's low-April 22 low), 0.7680 (April 21 low) and 0.7668 (April 16 low).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting seven-day high 0.7740 Tuesday as markets await 2100 GMT Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy decision: The Wall Street Journal's poll of 12 economists see a 96% chance that the central bank will keep the cash rate on hold. NZD/USD supported by negative dollar sentiment; Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid reduced risk aversion; larger-than-expected New Zealand March goods trade surplus of NZ$631 million (versus forecast NZ$344 million). But NZD/USD gains tempered by Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross; soft dairy prices. Other data: 0100 GMT New Zealand April ANZ business outlook. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish. Resistance at 0.7740 (Tuesday's high, matching April 17 high); breach would expose upside to 0.7808 (Jan. 19 high), then 0.7820 (200-day moving average), 0.7890 (Jan. 15 reaction high), 0.7910 (Dec. 2 high) and 0.7926 (Nov. 27 high). Support at 0.7674 (hourly chart), then at 0.7614 (Tuesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 0.7581 (Monday's low), then 0.7540-0.7535 (Friday's low-Thursday's low), 0.7485 (April 15 low) and 0.7436 (April 14 low).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting near-two-month high 1.5341 Tuesday. Underpinned by negative dollar sentiment; sterling demand on buoyant GBP/JPY cross amid diminished risk aversion. But sterling sentiment dented by weaker-than-expected U.K. 1Q flash GDP of +0.3% on-quarter, +2.4% on-year (versus forecast +0.5% on-quarter, +2.6% on-year). Data focus: 0600 GMT U.K. April Nationwide house price index, 1000 GMT U.K. April CBI monthly distributive trades survey. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 1.5341 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.5443 (March 2 high), then 1.5552 (Feb. 26 swing high), 1.5619 (Dec. 31 high) and 1.5682 (Dec. 19 high, near 200-day moving average). Support at 1.5270 (hourly chart), then at 1.5174 (Tuesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 1.5105 (Monday's low), then 1.5025 (Friday's low), 1.4957 (Thursday's low), 1.4910 (April 22 low) and 1.4853 (April 21 low).
USD/CHF--to range-trade. Undermined by negative dollar sentiment. But USD/CHF downside limited by franc sales on buoyant EUR/CHF cross; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. Data focus: 0600 GMT Switzerland March UBS consumption indicator. Daily chart mixed as MACD and stochastics in bearish mode, but five- and 15-day moving averages meandering sideways. Resistance at 0.9599 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9718 (Thursday's high), then 0.9770 (April 15 high), 0.9794 (April 14 high), 0.9863 (April 13 high) and 0.9984 (March 19 high). Support at 0.9501 (200-day moving average), then at 0.9498-0.9488 band (Tuesday's low-Monday's low); breach would target 0.9477 (April 3 low), then 0.9444 (Feb. 27 low) and 0.9383 (Feb. 23 low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting three-month low 1.2011 Tuesday. Loonie sentiment boosted as Bank of Canada Gov. Stephen Poloz reiterated the central bank's relatively optimistic perspective on the Canadian economy in his semi-annual testimony before House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance. USD/CAD also undermined by negative dollar sentiment; loonie demand on rising CAD/JPY cross amid improved risk tolerance; buoyant oil prices (Nymex crude settled up seven cents at $57.06/bbl Tuesday after hitting three-day low of $56.07). Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada March industrial product index (forecast -0.1% on-month) & raw materials price index (forecast -2.0% on-month); 1430 GMT EIA Weekly petroleum status report. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 1.2011 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1930 (Jan. 19 low), then 1.1799 (Jan. 15 low). Resistance at 1.2117 (Tuesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 1.2195 (Monday's high), then 1.2268 (Thursday's high), 1.2286 (April 22 high), 1.2305 (April 21 high), 1.2327 (April 16 high) and 1.2569 (April 15 high).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting three-week high 130.67 Tuesday. Supported by buoyant EUR/USD undertone; positive investor risk appetite; buy-euro orders from Japan importers. But EUR/JPY gains tempered by sell-euro orders from Japan exporters. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 130.67 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 130.78 (55-day moving average), then 131.04 (April 7 high), 131.29 (April 6 reaction high), 131.50 (March 24 reaction high) and 131.86 (March 10 high). Support at 129.95 (hourly chart), then at 129.38 (Tuesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 129.04 (Monday's low), then 128.85 (Friday's low), 127.89 (Thursday's low), 127.45 (April 21 low), 126.75 (April 16 low) and 126.28 (April 15 low).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
EUR/GBP--to range-trade. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics turning bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 0.7171 (Tuesday's high, matching Monday's high); breach would target 0.7211 (Friday's high), then 0.7242 (April 20 high), 0.7269-0.7277 band (April 13 high-April 9 high), 0.7314 (April 8 high) and 0.7351 (April 7 high). Support at 0.7123 (Tuesday's low), then at 0.7107 (Thursday's low); breach would target 0.7090 (March 16 low), then 0.7031 (March 12 low), 0.7010-0.7000 band (March 11 seven-year low-psychological line) and 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 28, 2015 19:37 ET (23:37 GMT)
April 28, 2015 19:37 ET (23:37 GMT)
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