(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate after hitting six-day low 119.07 Tuesday. Undermined by weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 98.78 versus 99.50 early Tuesday) after weaker-than-expected 0.9% on-month increase in U.S. March retail sales (versus forecast +1.1%) and surprise drop in U.S. NFIB index of small business optimism to 95.2 in March from 98.0 in February (versus forecast 98.1). USD/JPY also weighed by lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.898% versus 1.939% late Monday); Japan exporter sales. But USD sentiment soothed by stronger-than-expected 0.3% on-month increase in U.S. February business inventories (versus forecast +0.2%). USD/JPY downside also limited by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy; buying of yen crosses amid improved risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 1.94% to 13.67; S&P 500 closed up 0.16% at 2,095.84 overnight) as oil prices rallied (Nymex crude settled up $1.38 at $53.29/bbl Tuesday). Yen crosses vulnerable to 0200 GMT China 1Q GDP (forecast +6.9% on-year), China March retail sales (forecast +10.9%), fixed assets investment, industrial output (forecast +6.9% on-year), foreign direct investment data. Other data & event focus: 0000 GMT Fed's Narayana Kocherlakota speaks, 1230 GMT U.S. April Empire State manufacturing survey (forecast 8.0), 1300 GMT U.S. February Treasury international capital data, 1315 GMT U.S. March industrial production (forecast -0.4%) & capacity utilization (forecast 78.6%), 1400 GMT U.S. April NAHB housing market index (forecast 55), 1800 GMT U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book. Daily chart tilting negative as stochastics in bearish mode, MACD turning bearish. Support at 119.07 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 118.80-118.71 band (April 6 low-April 3 low), then 118.33-118.30 (March 26 low-Feb. 20 low), 118.11 (Feb. 16 low) and 117.17 (Feb. 6 low). Resistance at 120.17 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 120.84 (Monday's high), then 121.20 (March 20 high), 121.53 (March 17 high), 121.67 (March 12 high) and 122.04 (7.5-year high hit March 10).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias as markets await 1145 GMT European Central Bank interest rate announcement: ECB expected to stay pat on rates and provide further details on how the central bank's quantitative easing scheme--to buy EUR60 billion worth of sovereign debt every month until September 2016--has fared during its first month. Euro sentiment boosted by stronger-than-expected +1.1% on-month, +1.6% on-year increase in eurozone February industrial production (versus forecast +0.3% on-month, +0.7% on-year). EUR/USD also supported by weaker dollar sentiment; euro demand on buoyant EUR/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment. But EUR/USD gains tempered by concerns about possible Greek default; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. Other data: 0600 GMT Germany March final CPI, 0900 GMT eurozone February trade balance. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; but stochastics turned bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 1.0708 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.0788 (Thursday's high), then 1.0888 (April 8 high), 1.0955 (April 7 high) and 1.1036 (April 6 high). Support at 1.0597 (hourly chart), then at 1.0531 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 1.0520 (Monday's low), then 1.0457 (12-year low hit March 16)--below which there is no significant support until the psychological 1.0000 line.
AUD/USD--to trade with bullish bias. Underpinned by weaker dollar sentiment; Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/JPY cross amid improved risk appetite; firmer commodity prices (CRB spot index closed up 1.02% Tuesday at 219.03). But AUD/USD gains tempered by Aussie sales on soft AUD/NZD cross. Data focus: 0030 GMT Australia April Westpac - Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey. Daily chart mixed as stochastics bearish; but MACD flat, five-day moving average meandering sideways. Resistance at 0.7648 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7678 (Monday's high), then 0.7720 (Friday's high), 0.7738 (Thursday's high), 0.7757 (March 30 high) and 0.7834 (March 27 high). Support at 0.7550 (Monday's low); breach would target 0.7530 (near-six-year low hit April 2), then 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low)--below which there is no significant support until the psychological 0.7000 line.
NZD/USD--to trade in higher range. Underpinned by weaker dollar sentiment; Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid reduced risk aversion; Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross; NZD-USD interest differential. Data focus: 1200 GMT NZ GlobalDairyTrade auction. Daily chart mixed as MACD and stochastics bearish, but five-day moving average meandering sideways. Resistance at 0.7552 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.7598-0.7607 band (Friday's high-April 8 high), then 0.7621-0.7630 band (April 6 high-April 3 high), 0.7663 (March 26 high), 0.7691-0.7695 (March 25 high-March 24 high) and 0.7709 (Jan. 21 high). Support at 0.7480 (hourly chart), then at 0.7436 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.7420 (Monday's low), then 0.7390 (April 1 reaction low), 0.7369 (March 19 low), 0.7273 (March 18 reaction low) and 0.7182-0.7174 band (March 11 low-Feb. 3 low).
GBP/USD--to trade in higher range. Underpinned by weaker dollar sentiment; sterling demand on buoyant GBP/JPY cross amid diminished risk aversion; sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. But sterling sentiment dented by softer-than-expected U.K. March core CPI of +1.0% on-year (versus forecast +1.1% on-year). Daily chart mixed as five- and 15-day moving averages declining; but MACD and stochastics turning bullish. Resistance at 1.4801 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.4885 (Thursday's high), then 1.4972-1.4980 band (April 8 high-April 6 high), 1.4993 (March 26 high) and 1.5008 (March 19 high). Support at 1.4677 (hourly chart), then at 1.4601 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 1.4563 (Monday's low), then 1.4344 (June 8, 2010 low), 1.4230 (May 20, 2010 swing low) and the psychological 1.4000 line.
USD/CHF--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by weaker dollar sentiment. But USD/CHF losses tempered by negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing; but stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels. Support at 0.9668 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.9657 (Thursday's low), then 0.9592 (April 8 low), 0.9553 (April 7 low), 0.9493 (April 6 low), 0.9477 (April 3 low) and 0.9444 (Feb. 27 low). Resistance at 0.9746 (hourly chart), then at 0.9794 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9863 (Monday's high), then 0.9984 (March 19 high), 1.0069 (March 18 high) and 1.0091 (March 17 high).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bearish bias as markets await 1400 GMT Bank of Canada interest rate announcement: Many economists expect BOC to hold steady on policy, but remain ready to cut interest rates if the economy shows more damage from the drop in oil prices than it currently expects. USD/CAD undermined by weaker dollar sentiment; firmer oil prices (Nymex crude settled up $1.38 at $53.29/bbl Tuesday); loonie demand on buoyant CAD/JPY cross amid improved risk tolerance. Other data: 1230 GMT Canada February survey of manufacturing, 1430 GMT EIA Weekly petroleum status report. Daily chart tilting negative as MACD in bearish mode, stochastics turning bearish. Support at 1.2441 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2384 (April 8 low), then 1.2359-1.2351 band (Feb. 17 low-Feb. 3 low) and 1.2198 (100-day moving average). Resistance at 1.2541 (hourly chart), then at 1.2603 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 1.2645 (Monday's high), then 1.2665 (Friday's high), 1.2709 (April 1 high), 1.2783 (March 31 high) and 1.2834 (six-year high hit March 18).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate in higher range after hitting near-two-year low 126.08 Tuesday. Underpinned by reduced allure of haven yen amid improved investor risk appetite; firmer EUR/USD undertone; demand from Japan importers. But EUR/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, 5- & 15-day moving averages falling; but stochastics turning bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 127.63 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 127.83 (Monday's high), then 128.77 (Friday's high), 129.75 (Thursday's high), 130.36 (April 8 high) and 131.04 (April 7 high). Support at 126.64 (hourly chart), then at 126.08 (Tuesday's low); breach would reinstate negative near-term view, exposing downside to 124.95 (June 13, 2013 reaction low), then 121.90 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement of 94.09-149.72 July 24, 2012-Dec. 8, 2014 advance).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
April 14, 2015 19:31 ET (23:31 GMT)
EUR/GBP--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-one-month low 0.7174 Tuesday. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.7174 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7147 (March 19 low), then 0.7109 (March 17 low), 0.7090 (March 16 low), 0.7031 (March 12 low) and 0.7010-0.7000 band (March 11 seven-year low-psychological line). Resistance at 0.7235 (Tuesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.7269-0.7277 band (Monday's high-Thursday's high), then 0.7314 (April 8 high), 0.7351 (April 7 high), 0.7379-0.7385 band (April 3 high-March 25 high) and 0.7405 (Feb. 23 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 14, 2015 19:31 ET (23:31 GMT)
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