USD to Weaken Further Vs EUR, GBP -- Technical Analysis

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: Lies just under the 1.10 level, following Tuesday's surge to a three-week high. A wave equality target projected from the Apr. 21 higher low at 1.0660 lies at 1.0993, and the bull wave from the Apr. 13 higher low at 1.0520 is part of a gently-sloping bull channel that offers scope for further gains to the Mar. 26 peak at 1.1052 and beyond. A single print at 1.0906 on Tuesday's Market Profile chart indicates strong support, and backup lies at 1.0877.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.
        Intraday USD/JPY: Pokes its nose below support at 118.77 during Wednesday's Asian session, and more weakness is in store. The downward breach into seven-day lows extends the bear wave from last Friday's intra-wave lower high at 120.10, exposing last week's low at 118.52 and the Mar. 26 reaction low at 118.33. Furthermore, a downwave equality target has been generated at 118.11. Resistance at 109.02/109.08 would have to be surpassed in order to provide respite, although the strong 119.44/119.61 resistance cluster looms overhead.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Strength during Wednesday's Asian session has come within striking distance of the 1.5351 wave equality target. That 1.5351 target is a projection from the Apr. 21 bear failure higher low at 1.4858, and the wave structure of the broader bull wave from the Apr. 13 reaction low at 1.4568 makes the previous reaction high at 1.5550 accessible in the coming sessions. Weakness will attract support while above 1.5175.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Clings onto key support at 0.9483/93, although the key early April low at 0.9483 will remain vulnerable while Tuesday's high at 0.9599 caps the upside. A bearish Head-and-Shoulders continuation pattern is close to completion on the daily chart, and a push below Monday's low at 0.9493 and the 0.9483 low would initially expose the influential 260-day rising moving average at 0.9430. However, loss of 0.9483 would also signal downside risk to 0.9225 and 0.9195 in the broader-term. Recapturing ground above Tuesday's 0.9599 high would defer the bearish outlook, although only above 0.9625 would lift the tone.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Remains trapped between last week's six-week low at 0.7118 and resistance at 0.7211. The reluctance to meet a downside objective at 0.7061 suggests EUR bulls have the slight upper hand, although a break above the Apr. 20 intra-wave lower high at 0.7230 is required to strengthen the 0.7118 low. Support at 0.7133 shields the 0.7118 low from view, and a push below 0.7118 would extend the broader downtrend towards 0.7061 and 0.7015.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: Powers above the 130 level for the first time in nearly three weeks, and more gains are in store. Tuesday's EUR strength extends the bull wave from the Apr. 14 reaction low at 126.08, and bulls are targeting the previous reaction high at 131.30 that was made on Apr. 6. Tuesday's low at 129.38 marks strong support, which has protection at 129.70.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: The 1.05 level is under scrutiny, following Tuesday's push into near three-week highs. Tuesday's break above 1.0428 strengthens last week's eleven-week low at 1.0235, and 1.0519 marks the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the broader 1.0811 to 1.0235 decline. A wave equality target lands just below 1.0519, at 1.0505. It would take a break below 1.0360 to concern EUR bulls at this stage.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: The powerful two week bull wave exceeded the 0.80 level for the first time since late January. Tuesday's surge to 0.8029 also breached the rising resistance line of a near three-month expanding symmetrical triangle pattern, and consolidation is expected. That's because former range lows at 0.8035 have reversed polarity to become strong resistance - and AUD bulls are exhaustive. The setback from 0.8029 targets support at 0.7950, and there is scope to 0.7870 without concerning AUD bulls too much. It would take a fresh wave of bull pressure to force a break above 0.8029/35, opening 0.8099.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Range.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
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        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        April 29, 2015 02:40 ET (06:40 GMT)

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