(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--downtrend. USD/CNY is likely to keep falling as the daily chart remains bearish below the round-figure trading barrier of 6.2000. The pair is under the daily Ichimoku Cloud support and also inside the Bollinger downtrend channel, increasing the likelihood of a drop to 6.1757 in the near term. China's official manufacturing PMI for March released Wednesday had a positive skew, boosting stocks and increasing risk appetite regionally. But some analysts still think that more economic stimulus is needed, especially due to the weak employment sub-index revealed in Wednesday's data. As China firms up the founding members of its Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, doubts remain whether this initiative will help to get the yuan recognized in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights currency basket. The U.S. has said that the yuan needs to trade freely in order for that to happen. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.1800 (psychological support), then at 6.1785 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 6.1757 (weekly Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 6.2000 (round-figure trading barrier and daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance), then at 6.2092 (top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 6.2200 (psychological support).
USD/TWD--downtrend. USD/TWD is likely to keep sliding toward the round-figure trading barrier at 31.000, the bearish daily chart suggests. The overnight slippage of the benchmark U.S. dollar index may help to pressure USD/TWD lower Thursday. Bearish speculative pressure is still present, as seen in the offshore nondeliverable forwards market. The price of the 1-month NDF contract declined Wednesday versus that of the spot contract, suggesting that USD-sellers are back in force. The greenback slid Wednesday as the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury fell to 1.85% from around 1.95% after weak U.S. economic data which makes a June U.S. interest rate hike seem less likely. Taiwan's March manufacturing PMI released Wednesday slipped to 51.0 versus 52.1 in February, hurting stocks slightly. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 31.280 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 31.200 (psychological support), before 31.000 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is likely at 31.400 (top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 31.530 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance and daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance).
USD/KRW--consolidation within downtrend. USD/KRW has gained a bearish technical bias after it closed lower Wednesday - on the back of USD/JPY weakness - but it has met a technical support at 1,098 and could stabilize for now. USD/KRW is inside the Bollinger downtrend channel but is currently propped up by the Ichimoku Cloud support zone which spans 1,093-1,098. The U.S. dollar's overnight weakness led to a gap lower in USD/KRW as it opened Thursday below 1,100 - triggering stoploss sell orders - versus its Wednesday close of 1,103.5. Weak U.S. economic data, including private sector payrolls, released Wednesday appeared to be the culprit for a drop in yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which weighed on the dollar. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,098 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 1,093 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone), before 1,090 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 1,100 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,103 (top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 1,110 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/SGD--consolidation higher. USD/SGD has slumped into the daily Bollinger downtrend channel after overnight U.S. dollar weakness triggered by poor U.S. economic data. The greenback declined after a weak private sector payrolls report as well as downbeat manufacturing data - which makes a June U.S. interest rate hike seem less likely. USD/SGD traders are starting to position for Singapore's upcoming central bank meeting - likely in the second week of the month. Many expect some form of monetary policy easing to be announced - following a fourth consecutive month of deflation amid tepid economic growth. The consensus trade is to be long USD/SGD ahead of the policy meeting, but overnight greenback weakness could trigger some temporary capitulation of those bets. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3600 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.3579 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 1.3515 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is at 1.3675 (top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 1.3700 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.3771 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance).
USD/MYR--consolidation lower. USD/MYR may consolidate slightly lower after an overnight U.S. dollar selloff and higher crude oil prices. The dollar was down after weak U.S. economic data, while crude oil prices - which affect Malaysia's current account balance significantly - rose around 3.0%. USD/MYR could find support lower at 3.6680 where the Bollinger downtrend channel begins; but if this barrier is breached by Thursday's close, a bearish chart signal will be activated. Confirmation of the daily Bollinger downtrend channel coming into play could encourage punters to bet on a steeper fall toward the 3.6000 round-figure trading barrier. U.S. private sector payrolls rose much less than expected, boding poorly for Friday's non-farm payrolls report, depressing U.S. bond yields and thereby the dollar. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.6680 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 6.6500 (psychological support), before 3.6480 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 3.6880 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 3.7000 (round-figure trading barrier), before 3.7090 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/THB--possible downtrend. USD/THB is coming under more intense pressure as the Ichimoku Cloud resistance looms lower at 32.49, and the Bollinger downtrend channel comes into effect. If USD/THB closes Thursday below 32.47 it would also be under the 200-day moving average support line - a key technical barrier - and could from there fall with greater velocity toward the 32.00 round-figure trading barrier. Overnight U.S. dollar weakness - blamed on below-expectation U.S. private sector payroll data and weak U.S. manufacturing numbers - has cast a bearish tone on most USD/Asia pairs Thursday. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 32.47 (200-day moving average), then at 32.34 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 32.20 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is at 32.49 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance and top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 32.65 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 32.67 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance).
USD/PHP--closed.
USD/IDR--possible downtrend. USD/IDR could subside into the Bollinger downtrend channel at 12,990 following overnight U.S. dollar weakness. The greenback is lower across Asia Thursday on the back of poorer-than-expected private sector payrolls data and weak manufacturing data. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.85% from around 1.95%, thus hurting the dollar. Indonesia's March manufacturing PMI released Wednesday disappointed the market, falling for an eighth straight month to a record low of 46.4 versus 47.5 in February. The poor economic data could spur speculation of another Bank Indonesia interest rate cut, but this could have a negative effect on the rupiah because it might trigger capital flight by foreign investors. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 13,000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 12,990 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 12,900 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 13,070 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 13,160 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 13,200 (psychological resistance).
USD/INR--closed.
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@dowjones.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 01, 2015 20:48 ET (00:48 GMT)
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0 Response to "USD/Asia Opens Lower on Weak U.S. Data -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.