(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--consolidation lower. USD/CNY may fall back below the 20-day Bollinger mid line after a bout of U.S. dollar index weakness overnight. The dollar fell as the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note slipped to 1.90%. If USD/CNY re-enters the Bollinger downtrend channel at 6.1967 there could be more yuan strength in the near-term. Markets are focused on China's 1Q gross domestic product data due later; analysts are expecting a print of 6.9% growth versus last quarter's 7.3% expansion. Also to be released at 0200 GMT is China's industrial output for March, along with retail sales figures. The market has recently been reacting positively to negative China economic data. On Monday, China's disappointing exports data for March incited a rally in stocks as punters bet that the government might consider fresh monetary easing measures. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2093 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 6.2000 (round-figure trading barrier), before 6.1967 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 6.2219 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 6.2290 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance), before 6.2345 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/TWD--consolidation. Now that the USD/TWD downtrend channel has been nullified, the dollar could consolidate in a range of 31.250-31.400, supported by the entrance of the Bollinger downtrend channel and capped by the 20-day Bollinger mid line resistance. Overnight U.S. dollar index weakness may initially weigh on USD/TWD but a biddish tone persists in the offshore market that could prop up the pair on dips. The price difference between the benchmark 1-month USD/TWD nondeliverable forward contract in the offshore market versus that of the spot contract hovers around par, suggesting that the speculative community is still slightly bullish on the dollar. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 31.250 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 31.200 (psychological support), before 31.100 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 31.400 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 31.490 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance).
USD/KRW--possible downtrend. USD/KRW is aiming for the Bollinger downtrend channel at 1,090 after having cracked the base of the daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone late Tuesday. The overnight fall of the benchmark U.S. dollar index may be a trigger for further USD/KRW selling, but some traders may be waiting for the China 1Q gross domestic product data due later for a stronger cue. If the slew of economic data from China due at 0200 GMT - including retail sales and industrial production - disappoint, risk aversion could set in and trigger short-covering in USD/KRW. But if USD/KRW ends Wednesday below 1,090 and thus inside the downtrend channel, it could be on its way to 1,080 in the days ahead. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,090 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel and round-figure trading barrier), before 1,080 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel and round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 1,100 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance and round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,102 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 1,109 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone).
USD/SGD--consolidation. USD/SGD has slipped into the daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone after the Singapore dollar rallied sharply when the Monetary Authority of Singapore unexpectedly kept monetary policy unchanged Tuesday. Traders rapidly dumped long-USD/SGD positions - bets the MAS would weaken the Singapore dollar - on the disappointment. Singapore's 1Q gross domestic product data published Tuesday beat expectations; the economy grew 2.1% on-year versus forecasts for a rise of 1.7%. But the significance of those upbeat figures was watered down by the impact of the MAS policy announcement. Looking ahead, China's 1Q gross domestic product data due at 0200 GMT might be the next catalyst for regional currencies. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3600 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.3566 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 1.3550 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone). Immediate resistance is at 1.3654 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 1.3700 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.3710 ( top of daily Ichimoku Cloud).
USD/MYR--consolidation lower. USD/MYR may slip to the 20-day Bollinger mid support line at 3.6750 after the U.S. dollar index retreated overnight. The fall in yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note may have been part of the reason for the greenback's fall Tuesday. But if China's 1Q gross domestic product data due later disappoints, risk aversion could appear and drive USD/MYR higher into the Bollinger uptrend channel at 3.7060. Crude oil prices have recently stabilized, thus taking some pressure off the ringgit - which reacts to sharp moves in oil due to Malaysia's significantly-sized oil export industry. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.6800 (psychological support), then at 3.6750 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 3.6500 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is at 3.7000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 3.7060 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 3.7350 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/THB--possible downtrend. USD/THB is resting at the 200-day moving average line at 32.48 but could slide into the Bollinger downtrend channel nearby at 32.45 on the back of overnight U.S. dollar index weakness. Confirmation of the downtrend channel coming into play could encourage USD-selling that might weigh USD/THB down to 32.39 - the base of the channel. But currency punters may be holding back from taking positions until China releases its 1Q gross domestic product data at 0200 GMT. The GDP data, together with other economic indicators such as industrial production, are likely to influence regional markets. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 32.48 (200-day moving average), then at 32.45 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 32.39 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 32.52 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 32.59 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel and Ichimoku Cloud resistance), before 32.66 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud).
USD/PHP--consolidation. USD/PHP may fall back to the daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone at 44.56 after the overnight slide of the benchmark U.S. dollar index. If USD-selling accelerates due to China economic data due later, the USD/PHP pair could drop toward the Bollinger downtrend channel that begins at 44.48. The market is awaiting the release of China's 1Q gross domestic product at 0200 GMT. If China's economy rises more than the 6.9% median forecast or even beats the previous quarter's 7.3% expansion, there is likely to be widespread USD-selling. Activation of the Bollinger downtrend channel could see USD/PHP reach the 200-day moving average line at 44.30 soon. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 44.56 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 44.48 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 44.32 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 44.61 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 44.78 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 44.94 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/IDR--consolidation. USD/IDR is likely to remain inside a consolidation zone that spans 12,940-13,070 unless China economic data due later springs a surprise. The daily USD/IDR chart shows strong technical support forming around the 12,900-12,940 zone where the daily Ichimoku Cloud support augments the entrance of the Bollinger downtrend channel. But the 13,000 round-figure trading barrier - also the 20-day Bollinger mid resistance line - creates a strong technical ceiling for the pair. The rupiah was practically unchanged after Bank Indonesia on Tuesday kept interest rates unchanged at 7.5% as expected. However, the central bank toned down expectations for 2015 economic growth. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 12,940 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 12,900 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), before 12,870 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 13,000 (round-figure trading barrier and 20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 13,070 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 13,200 (psychological resistance).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
April 14, 2015 20:56 ET (00:56 GMT)
USD/INR--possible breakdown. USD/INR may slide out of the Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone which supports at 62.24 due to overnight U.S. dollar index weakness and the possibility of an upbeat China 1Q gross domestic product report - for which expectations are low. If USD/INR ends Wednesday below 62.13 it would be under the Ichimoku Cloud - a bearish sign - and also inside the Bollinger downtrend channel that could motivate more USD-selling in the near term. The market is awaiting a slew of economic data from China that could set the tone for Asia markets Wednesday. A strong number ought to rally risk-sensitive currencies like the India rupee but a weak number may also have the same effect. On Monday, China's disappointing exports data for March incited a rally in Chinese stocks as punters bet that the government might consider fresh monetary easing measures. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 62.24 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 62.13 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 62.00 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is likely at 62.32 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 62.50 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance and daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 62.68 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@dowjones.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 14, 2015 20:56 ET (00:56 GMT)
#FX
#Forex
#USD_Asia
#ChinaGDP
#AsiaDailyForexOutlook
0 Response to "USD/Asia Stable Before China GDP -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.