By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Intraday EUR/USD: Support at 1.1131 is refusing to budge, following three attempts to break it on the 60-minute chart. However, resistance at 1.1228 on last week's Market Profile chart would have to be broken in order to strengthen the 1.1131 low, and 1.1228 is located near notable resistance at 1.1215 on the Volume Profile chart. Also, projected resistance lies at 1.1242, and only above 1.1242 would leave the 1.1131 low as a pending bear failure, opening 1.1269. The broader bear wave from last Thursday's ten-week high at 1.1392 has a minimum downside requirement target at 1.1081, which requires a break below 1.1131 in order to be met.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/JPY: The May 5 reaction high at 120.51 remains the focus of attention, and a push higher is expected. Last week's successful defence of the 119 level provides the platform for a push higher to the Apr. 13 lower high at 120.84, and above 120.51 would generate a wave equality target at 121.06. Weakness will attract support while above 119.91, and only below 119.68 would concern USD bulls.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
Intraday GBP/USD: Surged to a new 2015 high at 1.5611 on Monday, to open 1.5655. The strong bounce from last week's higher low at 1.5091 has two hurdles within its grasp - the influential 260-day falling moving average at 1.5655, and the upper lining of the monthly Ichimoku cloud at 1.5695. The large upside gap between 1.5274 and 1.5355 underpins the advance, and support lies at 1.5525 and 1.5435.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Continues to press higher from last week's three-month low at 0.9072, and scope to the May 5 intra-wave lower high at 0.9413 is on offer. It was last Thursday's break above 0.9208 that left the 0.9072 low as a pending bear failure, and exceeding 0.9355 during Tuesday's Asian session should lead to that 0.9413 target. USD bulls will be comforted by last week's trend-neutralizing doji candle, and weakness will attract support while above 0.9285.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/GBP: The focus is on the Apr. 23 higher low at 0.7118, following the sharp setback from last Thursday's three-month high at 0.7482. That 0.7482 high is set to become a bull failure on a break below 0.7118 in the coming sessions, which would then signal room for a full retracement down to the Mar. 11 reaction low at 0.7015. The large downside gap between 0.7381 and 0.7312 on the daily chart continues to dominate the daily chart, and above 0.7225 is required just to offer respite.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Range.
Intraday EUR/JPY: The recovery from Monday's bull hammer candle low at 133.49 is likely to come unstuck in the 134.97/135.29 resistance area. The double-bottom base pattern at 133.49/133.52 on the 60-minute chart produced a measured upside objective at 134.97, although the daily chart shows a Head-and-Shoulders top formation has been developing since May 1, and the left-hand shoulder lies at 135.29. However, the May 7 peak at 135.99 is secure at this stage. It would take a push into new session lows below 133.77 to expose the 133.49 low, threatening 131.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Pressure builds on Friday's 1.0450 high, and an upside break is the main threat. The recovery from last week's low at 1.0305 will look to challenge the Apr. 30 peak at 1.0524 on a concerted push higher, while attempting to strengthen the April lows at 1.0235. The 1.0370/88 support area hampers scope for downside risk.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Support at 0.7859/63 remains targeted by AUD bears, and a push lower is expected during Tuesday's session. A bear pennant continuation pattern is developing just above 0.7859/63 on the 60-minute chart, and the broader bear wave from the May 6 high at 0.8031 has licence to extend down to last week's low at 0.7790. The medium-term picture is still defined by the three-month expanding symmetrical triangle trading range, which relies on the Apr. 29 peak at 0.8076 remaining intact. Loss of 0.7790 would then expose 0.7724. Resistance at 0.7949 and 0.7970 hampers scope for corrective upside risk.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Range.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 12, 2015 02:23 ET (06:23 GMT)
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