GBP in Trouble, USD Staging Recovery

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: The mild-mannered setback from Friday's 1.1290 high is looking to put pressure on support at 1.1117. Friday's bear hammer candle marks the peak of the strong bull wave from the Apr. 13 higher low at 1.0520, and a push below 1.1117 would generate additional downside risk to 1.1036. Congestive resistance between 1.1185 and 1.1195 would have to be broken in order to open Monday's 1.1223 high.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: The upward breach of 120.10 completes a double-bottom base on the daily chart, indicating more USD gains are in store. The double-bottom lows at 118.52/118.50 would be considerably strengthened on a break above 120.29, opening the Apr.13 lower high at 120.84, then 121.35. The trend-reversal pattern's measured upside objective lands at 121.70. Support at 119.88 and 119.63 on last week's Market Profile chart inhibit scope for corrective downside risk, guarding 119.14.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Puts further distance from last week's two-month high at 1.5496, while challenging support at 1.5078. Single prints at 1.5078 on the Market Profile chart, along with backup support at 1.5025/40, need to hold, if GBP bulls are to offer any strong kind of defence protecting the Apr. 13 reaction low at 1.4568. Resistance at 1.5175 and 1.5240 indicate limited scope for upside risk.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Corrects higher from Friday's eleven-week low at 0.9277, although strong resistance at 0.9495 looms overhead. It was last week's plunge to 0.9277 that completed a bearish Head-and-Shoulders continuation pattern on the daily chart, and USD bears will remain in control while 0.9495 caps the upside. That bearish pattern helped to generate two measured downside objectives at 0.9225 and 0.9195 for the broader-term. The 0.9495 cap is guarded by 0.9395.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: The 0.74 level has been breached for the first time since late February, and further gains are expected. It was Friday's push to 0.7416 that upgraded the recovery from the Mar. 11 reaction low at 0.7015, and a new wave equality target has been generated at 0.7496. That 0.7496 objective would become the focus on a break above 0.7443. Weakness will attract strong support while above 0.7336, and only below 0.7306 would concern EUR bulls.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: Corrects lower from Friday's two-month high at 135.29, to challenge support at 133.15. The move lower is consolidating the strong advance from the Apr. 14 reaction low at 126.08, and scope to the 131.70 area is indicated at this early stage. Recapturing ground above 134.50 would question the downside threat, while re-opening the 135.29 high.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: The setback from last Thursday's five-week high at 1.0524 brings the focus onto the 1.04 level. The move lower is consolidating the broader recovery from the April low at 1.0235, and two downside objectives lie at 1.0390 and 1.0375. That latter target at 1.0375 is fortified by the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.0235 to 1.0524 rally. A recovery above 1.0436 would offer respite, although only above 1.0479 would lift the tone.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Bounces strongly from Monday's Asian session low at 0.7790, to consolidate the decline from last week's 0.8076 peak. The sharp turnaround at 0.7790 targets the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.7932, and above 0.7932 would clear the upward path to 0.7993. Single print support at 0.7860 exists on the session's Market Profile chart, offering strong support, and only below 0.7840 would concern AUD bulls.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Range.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        May 05, 2015 02:27 ET (06:27 GMT)

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