(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by softer dollar sentiment and lower U.S. Treasury yields (2-year at 0.576% versus 0.631% late Thursday) after slightly-fewer-than-expected 223,000 increase in U.S. April non-farm payrolls (versus forecast +228,000) and less-than-expected 0.1% on-month rise in U.S. April average hourly earnings (versus forecast +0.2%), while the March payrolls increase was cut to just +85,000 from previously reported 126,000. USD/JPY also weighed by weaker-than-expected 0.1% rise in U.S. March wholesale inventories (versus forecast +0.4%); Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy; reduced safe-haven appeal of yen amid positive risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 15.0% to 12.86; S&P 500 closed up 1.35% at 2,116.1 Friday) as the U.S. April jobs data reassured investors that the Federal Reserve will remain patient in raising interest rates, while China's central bank on Sunday cut interest rates by 0.25%--its third decrease since November. Data focus: 1400 GMT U.S. April employment trends index. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics neutral. Support at 119.40 (this morning low); breach would target 119.05 (Thursday's low), then 118.50 (April 30 low), 118.33-118.30 (March 26 low-Feb. 20 low), 118.11 (Feb. 16 low) and 117.17 (Feb. 6 low). Resistance at 120.24 (Friday's high); breach would target 120.51 (Tuesday's high), then 120.84 (April 13 high), 121.20 (March 20 high) and 121.53 (March 17 high).
EUR/USD--to range-trade. Euro sentiment dented by surprise 0.5% on-month drop in Germany March industrial production index (versus forecast +0.4%). EUR/USD also weighed by euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; lingering worries about Greece--German Finance Minister Schaeuble warned of the possibility of a surprise default by Greece, according to German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung. But EUR/USD downside limited by softer dollar sentiment; positive investor risk appetite. Data focus: 0600 GMT Germany March manufacturing turnover. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics bearish at overbought levels. Support at 1.1179-1.1175 (Friday's low-Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1066 (Tuesday's low), then 1.0959 (April 29 low), 1.0860 (April 28 low), 1.0819 (April 27 low) and 1.0784 (April 24 low). Resistance at 1.1290 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1392 (Thursday's high), then 1.1450 (Feb. 19 high) and 1.1532 (Feb. 3 reaction high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with risks skewed higher after hitting three-day low 0.7859 Friday. Aussie sentiment boosted after China's central bank on Sunday cut interest rates by 0.25%. AUD/USD also supported by softer dollar sentiment; positive investor risk appetite; Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross; stronger iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron rose $0.50 Friday to two-month high $60.50/ton); expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may have come to the end of its easing cycle. Data focus: 0130 GMT Australia April NAB business survey. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics neutral. Resistance at 0.7967 (Friday's high); breach would target 0.8004 (Thursday's high), then 0.8030 (Wednesday's high), 0.8075 (April 29 high), 0.8233-0.8243 band (Jan. 21 high-Jan. 19 high) and 0.8295 (Jan. 15 reaction high). Support at 0.7859 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7795-0.7790 (Tuesday's low-April 27 low), then 0.7762 (April 24 low), 0.7708-0.7701 band (April 23 low-April 22 low), 0.7680 (April 21 reaction low) and 0.7568 (April 15 low).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting five-week low 0.7410 this morning. Undermined by Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross; weak dairy prices. But NZD/USD downside limited by softer dollar sentiment; positive investor risk appetite; NZD-USD interest differential. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.7390 (April 1 reaction low); breach would expose downside to 0.7273 (March 18 reaction low), then 0.7182-0.7174 band (March 11 low-Feb. 3 low). Resistance at 0.7526 (Thursday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing downside to 0.7569-0.7577 band (Wednesday's high-Tuesday's high), then 0.7627 (May 1 high), 0.7744 (April 29 high), 0.7779 (200-day moving average), 0.7808 (Jan. 19 high) and 0.7890 (Jan. 15 reaction high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting two-and-a-half month high 1.5522 Friday as markets await 1100 GMT Bank of England interest rate decision: BOE is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their current record low of 0.5%. GBP/USD supported by positive sterling sentiment after Conservative Party's win in U.K. election. GBP/USD also buoyed by sterling demand on cross trades versus major currencies; softer dollar sentiment; positive investor risk appetite. But sterling sentiment dented by wider-than-expected U.K. March global goods trade deficit of GBP10.1 billion (versus forecast GBP9.3 billion deficit). Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.5522 (Friday's high); breach would target 1.5552 (Feb. 26 swing high), then 1.5619 (Dec. 31 high, near 200-day moving average) and 1.5665 (Dec. 22 high). Support at 1.5353 (hourly chart), then at 1.5242 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5162 (Thursday's low), then 1.5149 (Wednesday's low), 1.5087 (Tuesday's low), 1.5025 (April 24 low) and 1.4957 (April 23 low).
USD/CHF--to trade in higher range. Swissie sentiment dented by surprise 0.2% on-month drop in Switzerland April CPI (versus forecast +0.1% on-month). USD/CHF also supported by franc sales on cross trades versus major currencies; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. But USD/CHF gains tempered by softer dollar sentiment. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics rising from oversold levels. Resistance at 0.9324 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9413 (Tuesday's high), then 0.9447 (April 30 high), 0.9509 (200-day moving average), 0.9574 (April 29 high), 0.9599 (April 28 high) and 0.9718 (April 23 high). Support at 0.9198 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.9065 (Thursday's three-month low, near 38.2% Fibonacci correction of advance from Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to March 12 high of 1.0128), then 0.8762 (Jan. 26 low) and 0.8744 (50.0% Fibonacci correction).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Canada April jobs data came in mixed Friday as lower-than-expected Canada April jobless rate of 6.8% (versus forecast 6.9%) offsets larger-than-expected 19,700 drop in Canada April jobs (versus forecast -5000). USD/CAD undermined by firmer oil prices (Nymex crude settled up 45 cents at $59.39/bbl Friday); softer dollar sentiment; positive investor risk appetite. Daily chart mixed as MACD and stochastics bullish, but five-day moving average meandering sideways below declining 15-day moving average; inside-day-range pattern completed Friday. Support at 1.2042 (Friday's low), then at 1.2028 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1938-1.1930 band (Wednesday's low-Jan. 19 low), then 1.1799 (Jan. 15 low) and 1.1746 (200-day moving average). Resistance at 1.2145 (Friday's high), then at 1.2162 (Thursday's high); breach would target 1.2180 (May 4 high), then 1.2204 (May 1 reaction high), 1.2268 (April 23 high) and 1.2305 (April 21 reaction high).
EUR/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by weaker USD/JPY undertone; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; positive investor risk appetite. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics bearish at overbought levels. Support at 133.80 (this morning low); breach would expose downside to 133.12 (Tuesday's low), then 131.29 (April 30 low), 130.28 (April 29 low), 129.38 (April 28 low) and 129.04 (April 27 low). Resistance at 135.49 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 135.99 (Thursday's near-three-month high), then 136.23 (Feb. 17 high), 136.68 (Feb. 12 reaction high) and 137.28 (200-day moving average).
EUR/GBP--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting six-day low 0.7219 Friday. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics falling from overbought levels. Support at 0.7219 (Friday's low); breach would target 0.7180 (April 30 low), then 0.7128-0.7123 (April 29 low-April 28 low) and 0.7107 (April 23 reaction low). Resistance at 0.7313 (hourly chart), then at 0.7394 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.7482 (Thursday's high), then 0.7591 (Feb. 3 reaction high) and 0.7662 (200-day moving average).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
May 10, 2015 19:51 ET (23:51 GMT)
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May 10, 2015 19:51 ET (23:51 GMT)
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