USD Consolidataing Vs Most Major FX This Week -- Charting Forex

 
   By Jerry Tan 
 

        The following is a technical analysis of seven major currency pairs for this week:
        USD/JPY
        1st support - 119.05 (minor)
        1st resistance - 120.51 (minor)
        2nd support - 118.50 (moderate)
        2nd resistance - 120.84 (moderate)
        USD/JPY (last 119.85) is likely to consolidate this week as long as the currency pair stays between Thursday's low of 119.05 and Tuesday's high of 120.51. The daily chart is mixed with the five- and 15-day moving averages meandering sideways. A drop below 119.05 would tilt the near-term view negative, targeting the April 30 reaction low of 118.50, and then the March 26 reaction low of 118.33. An extension of the fall would target the Feb. 16 reaction low of 118.11, and then the Feb. 5 low of 117.02, followed by the Feb. 2 reaction low of 116.64. But a rise above 120.51 would tilt the near-term view positive, targeting the April 13 reaction high of 120.84, and then the March 20 high of 121.20, followed by the March 12 high of 121.67. An extension of the rise would target 122.04--the seven-and-a-half-year high hit March 10--and then the July 9, 2007 high of 123.66. USD/JPY is likely to consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as the currency pair stays below 122.04. The weekly chart is mixed as the 15-week moving average is meandering sideways and the weekly slow stochastic measure is neutral. A rise above 122.04 would tilt the medium-term outlook positive, exposing the upside to the June 22, 2007 swing high of 124.16; and then to the Dec. 5, 2002 reaction high of 125.70.
        EUR/USD
        1st support - 1.1066 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.1391 (moderate)
        2nd support - 1.0905 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.1450 (minor)
        EUR/USD (last 1.1154) is likely to consolidate this week as long as the currency pair stays below Thursday's high of 1.1391. The five-day moving average is turning downward above the advancing 15-day moving average, while the slow stochastic measure is bearish at overbought levels. Support is at Tuesday's reaction low of 1.1066. A breach would expose the downside to the 55-day moving average, now at 1.0905; and then to the April 27 low of 1.0819. An extension of the fall would target the April 21 low of 1.0660, and then the April 16 low of 1.0624, followed by the April 15 low of 1.0571. But a rise above 1.1391 would reinstate the positive near-term view, targeting the Feb. 19 reaction high of 1.1450, and then the Feb. 3 reaction high of 1.1534. An extension of the rise would target the Jan. 21 reaction high of 1.1674. The medium-term EUR/USD outlook is positive as the weekly MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bullish, while the five-week moving average is rising above the 15-week moving average. The currency pair may advance to the Feb. 3 reaction high of 1.1534, and then to 1.1807--the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the decline from the May 8, 2014 high of 1.3992 to the March 16 low of 1.0457--in the weeks ahead.
        AUD/USD
        1st support - 0.7795 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.8030 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.7759 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 0.8075 (moderate)
        AUD/USD (last 0.7893) is likely to consolidate this week as long as the currency pair stays between Tuesday's low of 0.7795 and Wednesday's high of 0.8030. The daily chart is mixed as the five-day moving average is meandering sideways above the advancing 15-day moving average, while the slow stochastic measure is neutral. A rise above 0.8030 would tilt the near-term view positive, targeting the April 29 reaction high of 0.8075, and then the Jan. 21 high of 0.8233. An extension of the rise would target the Jan. 15 reaction high of 0.8295; and then the 200-day moving average, now at 0.8342; followed by the Dec. 11 high of 0.8375. But a drop below 0.7795 would tilt the near-term view negative, targeting the 55-day moving average, now at 0.7759; and then the April 23 low of 0.7708. An extension of the fall would target the April 21 reaction low of 0.7680, and then the 0.7568-0.7550 band, marked by the April 15 low and the April 13 reaction low; followed by 0.7530--the near-six-year low hit April 2. The AUD/USD medium-term outlook is positive as the weekly MACD and stochastic indicators are bullish, while the five-week moving average is above the 15-week moving average and advancing. The currency pair may rise to the Jan. 15 reaction high of 0.8295 in the weeks ahead.
        NZD/USD
        1st support - 0.7390 (moderate)
        1st resistance - 0.7577 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.7369 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 0.7627 (minor)
        NZD/USD (last 0.7399) is likely to trade in a lower range this week as the five-day moving average is below the 15-day moving average and declining. Support is at the April 1 reaction low of 0.7390. A breach would target the March 19 low of 0.7369, and then the March 18 reaction low of 0.7273. An extension of the fall would target the 0.7182-0.7174 band, marked by the March 11 low and the Feb. 3 low. Resistance is at Tuesday's high of 0.7577. A breach would target the May 1 high of 0.7627, and then the April 29 reaction high of 0.7744. An extension of the rise would target the 200-day moving average, now at 0.7779; and then the Jan. 19 high of 0.7808, followed by the Jan. 15 reaction high of 0.7890. The positive medium-term NZD/USD outlook is tempered as the weekly slow stochastic measure has turned bearish and the five-week moving average has turned downward. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays below the April 29 reaction high of 0.7744. A rise above 0.7744 would reinstate the positive medium-term outlook, targeting the Jan. 15 reaction high of 0.7890, and then the Nov. 17 reaction high of 0.7974.
        GBP/USD
        1st support - 1.5162 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.5552 (moderate)
        2nd support - 1.5087 (moderate)
        2nd resistance - 1.5619 (minor)
        GBP/USD (last 1.5418) is likely to trade in a higher range this week after completing a bullish outside-week-range pattern on the weekly chart Friday. Resistance is at the Feb. 26 swing high of 1.5552. A breach would target the Dec. 31 high of 1.5619 which is currently near the 200-day moving average, and then the Dec. 16 reaction high of 1.5785. An extension of the rise would target the Nov. 27 reaction high of 1.5825, and then the Nov. 11 reaction high of 1.5944. Support is at Thursday's low of 1.5162. A breach would target Tuesday's reaction low of 1.5087; and then the 55-day moving average, now at 1.5036. An extension of the fall would target the April 23 low of 1.4957, and then the April 21 reaction low of 1.4853, followed by the April 16 low of 1.4810. The medium-term GBP/USD outlook is tilting positive as both the weekly MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bullish, while the five-week moving average is rising above the 15-week moving average. A rise above 1.5552 would expose the upside to the 200-week moving average, now at 1.5894, and then to the Oct. 21 reaction high of 1.6184.
        USD/CHF
        1st support - 0.9198 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.9413 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.9065 (moderate)
        2nd resistance - 0.9446 (minor)
        USD/CHF (last 0.9325) is likely to trade in a higher range this week after completing a bullish hammer candlestick pattern on the weekly chart Friday. Resistance is at Tuesday's high of 0.9413. A breach would target the April 30 high of 0.9446; and then the 200-day moving average, now at 0.9509. An extension of the rise would target the April 28 high of 0.9598, and then the April 23 high of 0.9718, followed by the April 13 reaction high of 0.9863. Support is at Friday's low of 0.9198. A breach would expose the downside to Thursday's low of 0.9065, which is near the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the advance from the Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to the March 12 high of 1.0128. An extension of the fall would target the Jan. 26 low of 0.8762; and then 0.8744, the 50.0% Fibonacci correction level. The medium-term USD/CHF outlook is negative as the weekly MACD and stochastic indicators are bearish, while the five-week moving average is below the 15-week moving average and declining. The currency pair may fall to 0.8418--the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the advance from the Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to the March 12 high of 1.0128--in the weeks ahead. But a rise above the April 13 reaction high of 0.9863 would temper the negative medium-term view.
        USD/CAD
        1st support - 1.1938 (moderate)
        1st resistance - 1.2162 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.1799 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.2204 (minor)
        USD/CAD (last 1.2115) is likely to consolidate this week as long as the currency pair stays between Wednesday's low of 1.1938 and Thursday's high of 1.2162. The daily chart is mixed with the five-day moving average is meandering sideways below the declining 15-day moving average. A drop below 1.1938 would tilt the near-term view negative, exposing the downside to the Jan. 15 low of 1.1799. An extension of the fall would target the 200-day moving average, now at 1.1746; and then the Jan. 6 low of 1.1728. But a rise above 1.2162 would tilt the near-term view positive, targeting the May 1 reaction high of 1.2204, and then the April 21 reaction high of 1.2305 which is currently near the 100-day moving average. An extension of the rise would target the 55-day moving average, now at 1.2425; and then the April 15 high of 1.2569, followed by the April 10 reaction high of 1.2667. The medium-term USD/CAD outlook is negative as the weekly MACD and stochastic indicators are bearish, while the five-week moving average is below the 15-week moving average and declining. The currency pair may fall to the 200-day moving average, and then to 1.1464--the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the impulsive advance from the July 3, 2014 low of 1.0616 to the March 18 high of 1.2833--in the weeks ahead.
        Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
        (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

        May 10, 2015 22:52 ET (02:52 GMT)

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        May 10, 2015 22:52 ET (02:52 GMT)

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