(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--consolidation. USD/CNY may break lower from its current consolidation range of 6.1974-6.2107 demarcated by the daily Bollinger bands (standard deviation 1). A Thursday close below 6.1974 would activate the daily Bollinger downtrend channel and could lead the pair even lower. The overnight slide of the U.S. dollar index - due to disappointing numbers from the ADP employment survey - may weigh the USD/CNY benchmark rate and thereby drag spot down as well. The U.S. dollar was mauled by the euro particularly as bond yields in the eurozone rose - by a greater extent than the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury which went up to 2.24% from 2.19%. Stocks in Shanghai may slip again after failing to maintain Wednesday's brief relief rally, creating more bearish pressure instead with a 1.6% lower closing. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 6.1974 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 6.1908 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 6.2041 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 6.2107 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 6.2174 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel and daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone).
USD/TWD--consolidation within downtrend. USD/TWD is stabilizing between 30.600-30.800, bordered by the confines of the daily Bollinger downtrend channel. A Wednesday close above 30.800 would nullify the current bearish chart signal of the Bollinger downtrend channel, and could spark a short-covering rally. The overnight rise of the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury - which typically boosts the greenback - has been mitigated by the slide of the U.S. dollar index, which was mainly due to the euro's spike on higher eurozone bond yields. Overnight, the U.S. ADP payrolls report - a private survey of employment - disappointed sharply, offering a hint of Friday's keenly awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls report that could steer the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-setting decision. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 30.600 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 30.500 (psychological support), before 30.350 (weekly Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is likely at 30.800 (psychological resistance and top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 31.000 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/KRW--consolidation. USD/KRW is still bobbing within a range of 1,075-1,084 demarcated by the entrance to the Bollinger downtrend channel and the 20-day Bollinger mid resistance line. For a second day, mixed overnight signals for the U.S. dollar confound Asia traders and discourage punting. While the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 2.24% from 2.19% - despite a fall in U.S. employment revealed by the ADP employment survey Wednesday - the U.S. dollar index dropped due to a steep euro rally. Traders may hence be sitting it out till Friday when the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for April is released. Forecasts are bullish due to the very poor reading in March. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,080 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,075 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 1,070 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is 1,084 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 1,090 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/SGD--downtrend. USD/SGD has slipped into the daily Bollinger downtrend channel as a powerful euro rally depressed the U.S. dollar index - despite the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rising to 2.24% from 2.19%. The downtrend channel caps the pair at 1.3240 and may lead to 1.3083 - the base of the channel - in the days ahead. The U.S. dollar may also be under pressure from the disappointing U.S. ADP employment survey published Wednesday - which bodes poorly for Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3200 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.3150 (psychological support), before 1.3110 (base of weekly Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 1.3240 (top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 1.3250 (psychological resistance), before 1.3300 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/MYR--consolidation lower. Ahead of Malaysia's monetary policy meeting later today - expected to be a non-event - USD/MYR is consolidating lower toward the 3.5610 entrance of the daily Bollinger downtrend channel as the U.S. dollar index slumped overnight due to a sharp euro rally. The U.S. dollar index fell despite a rise in U.S. government bond yields. Adding weight to the dollar was the poorer-than-expected U.S. ADP employment survey published Wednesday, which bodes poorly for Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Helping the ringgit to stay strong versus the greenback is the recent rise in crude oil prices to above $60 per barrel. Malaysia releases its trade data at 0401 GMT, which could hint at an improvement in exports due to the oil price recovery. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.5610 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 3.5500 (psychological support), before 3.5450 (weekly Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 3.5800 (psychological resistance), then at 3.6000 (round-figure trading barrier), before 3.6120 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance).
USD/THB--uptrend. USD/THB remains in a technical uptrend despite the overnight slippage due to the broad slide of the U.S. dollar index. As long as the Bollinger uptrend channel - which currently supports at 33.07 - remains in effect, the baht will stay vulnerable. The baht could test its 5-year low of 33.45 to the U.S. dollar in the days ahead if the bullish chart signal is maintained. Overnight, a weaker-than-expected U.S. ADP employment survey coupled with a strong euro rally due to rising eurozone bond yields sank the greenback. But the baht remains depressed due to the dovish stance of the Bank of Thailand; the BOT cut interest rates again last week for the second time this year due to slowing economic growth. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 33.20 (psychological support), then at 33.07 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 33.00 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 33.44 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 33.50 (psychological resistance), before 33.80 (psychological resistance).
USD/PHP--mildly bearish. USD/PHP may retreat again with another overnight drop in the U.S. dollar index - triggered by a soaring euro. The USD/PHP daily chart could appear mildly bearish if the pair ends Thursday below the 20-day Bollinger mid support line at 44.41. The technical outlook could worsen for USD/PHP if the 200-day moving average line at 44.34 is also breached. On Wednesday, disappointing numbers from the U.S. ADP employment survey dampened expectations for Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report and thereby pressured the greenback. A weak payrolls report could persuade the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low for longer, which would be negative for the U.S. dollar. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 44.52 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 44.50 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone), then at 44.41 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 44.34 (200-day moving average). Immediate resistance is likely at 44.57 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 44.72 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 44.80 (psychological resistance).
USD/IDR--uptrend. USD/IDR is probing the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone as bullish pressure mounts with the Bollinger uptrend channel coming into effect since Tuesday. But overnight U.S. dollar weakness may dampen USD/IDR Thursday and delay the confirmation of a second bullish chart signal; a break of the Cloud ceiling could unleash significant room to the top for USD/IDR. The U.S. dollar fell overnight as the euro rocketed due to rising eurozone bond yields, and also due to the disappointing U.S. ADP employment survey - which provides a hint for Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report. The Indonesia rupiah has been sliding since 1Q GDP released Tuesday fell short of expectations. The economy expanded 4.7% on-year, against forecasts for a bigger rise of 5.0%. Some analysts have downgraded their 2015 GDP forecasts, pointing out that the growth slowdown may persist as rising inflation makes it less likely Bank Indonesia can cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 13,000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 12,990 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 12,940 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 13,050 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance), then at 13,200 (psychological resistance), before 13,250 (top of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
May 06, 2015 21:02 ET (01:02 GMT)
USD/INR--consolidation within uptrend. USD/INR re-established its bullish chart bias Wednesday with a closing inside the Bollinger uptrend channel, but needs to stay above 63.57 today to maintain the upward trajectory. Overnight U.S. dollar weakness could put a spanner in the works for USD/INR bulls. The U.S. dollar index fell sharply Wednesday with the euro's steep rally due to rising eurozone bond yields. The greenback was also depressed by a weaker-than-expected U.S. ADP employment survey, which bodes poorly for Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report. If USD/INR falls out of the Bollinger uptrend channel, it could retreat to the 20-day Bollinger mid support at 63.05. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 63.57 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 63.20 (psychological support), before 63.05 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is likely at 63.80 (psychological resistance), then at 64.00 (round-figure trading barrier), before 64.09 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@dowjones.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 06, 2015 21:02 ET (01:02 GMT)
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