Yen Bears in Control; EUR Knocked Off Perch

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: Monday's setback puts further distance from last Friday's three-month high at 1.1468, leaving support at 1.1270/80 vulnerable. The downfall leaves the two Fibonacci targets at 1.1510 unmet, and although a recovery towards 1.1385 should be expected while support at 1.1270/80 holds, the broader bull wave from the March reaction low at 1.0457 is losing momentum. Loss of 1.1270/80 would uncover deeper downside risk to 1.1230. Only a clean break above 1.1385 would lift the tone, opening 1.1415.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: Pokes its nose above the 120 level, to target last week's bull trap high at 120.28. The recovery from last Thursday's low at 118.88 is on course to extend to the May 5 peak at 120.51, which would then leave the Apr. 13 high at 120.84 vulnerable. Weakness will attract strong support while above 119.66, and layers of support offer a strong defence for the 118.88 low.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Extends the setback from last Thursday's 1.5813 high, and support at 1.5615 is now under the spotlight. This move lower is correcting the steep five-week uptrend that stalled just beneath key resistance at 1.5825, and a break below 1.5615 would uncover 1.5570. There is technical downside risk to 1.5414 without damaging the wave structure of the 1.4568 to 1.5813 rally. Recapturing ground above 1.5675 would provide respite, but only above 1.5745/60 would re-open the 1.5813 high.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Monday's probe above 0.9255 enhances the prospect for a return to the range high at 0.9360. The move higher is threatening to become part of a broader basing pattern at the recent 0.9072/78 lows, and internal resistance at 0.9300 and 0.9340 guard the May 12 high at 0.9360. Strong support at 0.9205 indicates limited downside risk, protecting 0.9164.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: The setback from 0.7282 high is close to confirming a bull failure. Support at 0.7205 is under threat, and a push lower would bolster the 0.7282 high, while signalling a return to last week's 0.7123 low. Resistance at 0.7254 and 0.7272 would have to be broken in order to re-open the 0.7282 high.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: Monday's bearish outside day at a near four-month high suggests downside consolidation of the 133.49 to 136.96 advance is underway. However, the move is considered corrective at this stage, because last week's EUR strength negated a Head-and-Shoulders top pattern on the daily chart, to generate a measured upside objective at 138.68. Loss of support at 135.30 would expose 134.80 and potentially 134.45. It would require a break above 136.40 and 136.75 to re-open the 136.96 high.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Skirts the 1.05 level, and EUR bulls target further gains. The push through 1.0450 on Friday decisively extends the bull wave from the May 7 low at 1.0305, opening the Apr. 30 reaction high at 1.0524. Also, a wave equality target has been generated at 1.0595. Weakness will attract strong support above the 1.0410/50 cluster.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Range.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Downside consolidation from last Thursday's 16-week high at 0.8163 has room to stretch to the 0.7925 area. However, to meet that 0.7925 target, the strong recovery from Tuesday's Asian session low at 0.7957 would have to be reversed. The bear wave from 0.8163 is considered to be corrective, because the push to 0.8163 last week completed a two-week bull pennant continuation pattern on the daily chart, and the broader three-month expanding symmetrical triangle pattern has become a major base. Recapturing ground above 0.8017 would improve the near-term outlook, and above 0.8075/83 would bolster Tuesday's low at 0.7957.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        May 19, 2015 02:25 ET (06:25 GMT)

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