EUR Recovery Vs USD, GBP Impressive

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: The strong rejection of Monday's four-week low at 1.0950 gives EUR bulls hope that the May and June highs at 1.1468/40 respectively can be retested. Monday's bullish outside day and bullish engulfing candle diminishes the threat of corrective weakness to 1.0847 within a bull pennant continuation pattern, and a break above Monday's 1.1279 high would open 1.1321 and 1.1342. Single print support at 1.1142 and 1.1051 on Monday's Market Profile chart hampers scope for corrective weakness, and only below 1.1009 would concern EUR bulls.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: The probe to a five-week low at 122.11 on Monday indicates new downside risk to 120.46. The downward breach of 122.46 extends the bear wave from the June 5 peak at 125.86, and renewed pressure on 122.11 during Tuesday's Asian session should lead to a push lower towards 121.79 and 121.53 initially, then 121.06. However, a bearish rectangle continuation pattern would generate a measured downside objective at 120.46, if a daily session close can be achieved below 122.46. Recapturing ground above 122.75 would provide respite, although only above 122.88 would re-open Monday's 123.25 high.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday GBP/USD: The key 1.5635/50 support area is likely to come under fresh pressure, following Monday's successful defence of the 1.58 resistance area. Monday's high at 1.5787 is set to become an orthodox lower high, and renewed pressure on last week's low at 1.5669 would expose the 1.5635/50 area, while threatening a deeper push lower towards 1.5540. That 1.5540 support area is where the 50% Fibonacci level of the broader 1.5172 to 1.5930 rally coincides with the 200-day rising moving average. Only above 1.5825 would negate the bearish outlook.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Rejected Monday's spike high of 0.9435, to put support at 0.9210/30 to the test. Monday's rejection produced a bearish outside day at its three-week high, and a push below 0.9210 would signal a full retracement to the June 18 pending bear failure reaction low at 0.9151. It would take a recovery above 0.9330 and 0.9380 to question the bearish outlook, opening 0.9435.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: The strong bounce from Monday's seven-and-a-half year low at 0.6990 suggests a near-term base has been forged. The push to a four-day high at 0.7166 prevented a minimum downside requirement target at 0.6968 from being met, and a break through 0.7166 would open the June 22 intra-wave lower high at 0.7210. However, only above 0.7249 would instigate further EUR gains. Weakness will attract support while above 0.7095, and backup exists at 0.7067 and 0.7009.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: Decisively rejects Monday's low at 133.80, to bring the 138 level into focus. However, a new range between 133.80 and 138.20 is developing, which requires internal support at 136.50 and 135.95, and potentially 135.65, to be tested, before renewing pressure on Monday's 138.10 high. Monday's strength would only be put in doubt on a break below 134.80, exposing the 133.80 low.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Euro bulls are trying to regain a foothold above the 1.04 level, following Monday's recovery from 1.0300. However, a push through strong resistance at 1.0450 is required to strengthen the 1.0300 low, while opening additional upside scope to 1.0490. Weakness will attract support while above 1.0330, protecting the 1.0300 low.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Recovers from Monday's marginal ten-week low at 0.7587, to put pressure on resistance at 0.7719. The failure to attract follow-through weakness on the downward breach of 0.7598/99 should concern AUD bears, and a push above 0.7719 would open 0.7740, while making the June 18 bull failure lower high at 0.7849 more accessible. Intra-day support at 0.7656 and 0.7622 guard the 0.7587 low.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        This Technical Analysis column will be discontinued in the not-too-distant future. I would like to thank everyone for their valued support over the past six years.
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        June 30, 2015 02:36 ET (06:36 GMT)

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