(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by flows to haven JPY amid increased risk aversion as the Greece crisis escalate after Greek PM Tsipras on Friday called for a snap referendum to be held on July 5, eurozone finance ministers on Saturday refused a Greek request to extend the current bailout program beyond its expiry on June 30, while the European Central Bank on Sunday said it will freeze for now the level of emergency loans for Greek banks at Friday's level of EUR89 billion, paving the way for Greek authorities to close banks and impose capital controls. But USD/JPY losses tempered by higher U.S. Treasury yields; positive USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 96.21 versus 95.21 early Friday) on flows to haven dollar and healthier-than-expected U.S. June final University of Michigan consumers sentiment index of 96.1 (versus forecast 95.0); demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. "We expect a very strong risk averse tone to pervade global markets as soon as Asian opens for trading and throughout much of the week: equities lower (perhaps 2-4% for key markets), bond yields lower (perhaps 15-25bp for core markets) and the likes of the USD, JPY and CHF to be very well supported," Westpac says. Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan May preliminary retail sales; 2350 GMT Japan May preliminary industrial production; 2350 GMT Japan June provisional trade statistics for 1st 10 days; 1400 GMT U.S. May pending home sales index (forecast +1.2%); 1430 GMT U.S. June Texas manufacturing outlook survey (forecast -18.0). Daily chart negative-biased as MACD in bearish mode, stochastics turning bearish. Support at 122.11 (this morning low); breach would expose downside to 121.55 (55-day moving average), then 121.44 (May 25 low), 120.80 (100-day moving average) and 120.61 (May 22 low). Resistance at 123.20 (hourly chart), then at 123.99 (Friday's high); breach would target 124.38-124.46 band (Wednesday's high-June 17 high), then 124.63 (June 10 high), 124.74 (June 9 high) and 125.68 (June 8 high).
EUR/USD--to trade with bearish bias, Undermined by escalating Greece crisis amid fears that the debt-laden country will default on a EUR1.55 billion payment due to the International Monetary Fund on June 30 and will exit from the eurozone; positive USD sentiment; weaker-than-expected eurozone May M3 money supply growth of 5.0% on-year (versus forecast +5.4%); European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; euro sales on cross trades versus major currencies. Data focus: 0900 GMT eurozone June economic sentiment indicator (forecast 103.9); 1200 GMT Germany June preliminary HCPI (forecast +0.1% on-month, +0.4% on-year). Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 1.0950 (this morning low); breach would target 1.0887 (June 1 low), then 1.0819 (May 27 reaction low), 1.0784 (April 24 low) and 1.0658 April 21 reaction low). Resistance at 1.1129 (hourly chart), than at 1.1220 (Friday's high); breach would target 1.1235 (Wednesday's high), then 1.1347 (Tuesday's high), 1.1410 (June 22 high), 1.1440-1.1450 band (June 18 high-May 18 high), 1.1466 (May 15 reaction high) and 1.1532 (Feb. 3 reaction high).
AUD/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by heightened risk aversion as Greece crisis festers. But Aussie sentiment soothed after China's central bank on Saturday cut its one-year lending rate by 0.25% to 4.85% and the amount of reserves certain banks are required to hold by 0.5% following a 7.38% plunge in the Shanghai Composite on Friday. AUD/USD losses also tempered by Aussie demand on soft EUR/AUD cross. Daily chart negative-biased as stochastics in bearish mode, MACD turning bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.7584 (this morning low); breach would target 0.7550 (April 13 reaction low), then 0.7530 (near-six-year low hit April 2) and 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low). Resistance at 0.7740 (Friday's high), then at 0.7752 (Thursday's high); breach would target 0.7771 (Wednesday's high), then 0.7796 (June 22 high), 0.7809 (June 19 high), 0.7848 (June 18 high), 0.7934 (May 20 high) and 0.8010 (May 19 high).
NZD/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by elevated risk aversion as Greece fears prevail; divergent Reserve Bank of New Zealand-Federal Reserve monetary policy stances; soft dairy prices. But NZD/USD losses tempered by Kiwi demand on soft EUR/NZD cross. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.6785 (this morning low); breach would expose downside to 0.6559 (May 25, 2010 reaction low), then 0.6192 (July 13, 2009 low). Resistance at 0.6909 (Friday's high, near 10-day exponential moving average), then at 0.6924 (Thursday's high); breach would target 0.6938 (June 19 high), then 0.6994 (June 18 high), 0.7010 (June 17 high), 0.7026 (June 12 high), 0.7198 (June 11 high) and 0.7230 (June 10 high).
GBP/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by increased risk aversion as Greece crisis escalates. But GBP/USD losses tempered by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. May Bank of England money and credit data. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish; but stochastics falling from overbought levels, bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit this morning. Support at 1.5664 (this morning low); breach would target 1.5623 (June 17 low), then 1.5539 (June 16 low), 1.5485 (June 15 low), 1.5465 (June 12 low), 1.5420 (June 11 low) and 1.5366 (June 10 low). Resistance at 1.5766-1.5770 (Friday's high-Thursday's high); breach would target 1.5802 (Wednesday's high), then 1.5831 (Tuesday's high), 1.5909 (June 22 high), 1.5928 (June 18 high), 1.5944 (Nov. 11 reaction high) and 1.6021 (Nov. 5 high).
USD/CHF--to trade with bullish bias. Underpinned by broadly firmer dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 96.21 versus 95.21 early Friday); negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. But USD/CHF gains tempered by franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 0.9420-0.9429 band (this morning high-June 8 high); breach would expose upside to 0.9503 (June 5 high), then 0.9514 (May 28 high) and 0.9530 (200-day moving average). Support at 0.9294 (this morning low), then at 0.9278 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.9207 (Tuesday's low), then 0.9152-0.9145 band (June 22 low-June 18 low), 0.9108 (May 15 low), 0.9073-0.9065 band (May 14 low-May 7 low, near 38.2% Fibonacci correction of advance from Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to March 12 high of 1.0128) and 0.8762 (Jan. 26 low).
USD/CAD--to trade with bullish bias. Underpinned by broadly firmer dollar undertone; increased risk aversion; soft oil prices (Nymex crude settled down seven cents at $59.63/bbl Friday; last down 84 cents at $58.79/bbl on Globlex). But USD/CAD gains tempered by loonie demand on soft EUR/CAD cross. Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada May industrial product price index (forecast +0.5% on-month), raw materials price index (forecast +4.5% on-month). Daily chart mixed as stochastics bullish, but MACD in bearish mode. Resistance at 1.2396-1.2398 (Friday's high-Thursday's high), then at 1.2422 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.2441 (June 9 high), then 1.2472 (June 8 high) and 1.2562-1.2569 band (June 5 high-April 15 high). Support at 1.2309-1.2308 (Friday's low-Thursday's low), then at 1.2273 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2215-1.2210 (June 22 low-June 19 low), then 1.2124 (June 18 low), 1.1997 (May 18 low) and 1.1983 (200-day moving average).
EUR/JPY--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by weak euro sentiment as Greece crisis festers; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 133.68 (this morning low); breach would target 133.48 (100-day moving average), then 133.05 (May 26 reaction low), 131.26 (April 30 low) and 130.22 (April 29 low). Resistance at 137.23 (200-day moving average), then at 137.62 (previous base set Thursday); breach would expose upside to 138.67 (Friday's high), then 138.87 (Thursday's high), 139.18 (Wednesday's high), 140.01 (Tuesday's high) and 140.63-140.67 (June 22 high-June 18 high).
EUR/GBP--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by weak euro sentiment as Greece fears prevail. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.6981 (this morning low); breach would expose downside to 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low), then 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low). Resistance at 0.7071 (hourly chart), then at 0.7126 (Friday's high); breach would target 0.7148 (Thursday's high), then 0.7179 (Tuesday's high), 0.7210-0.7213 (June 22 high-June 17 high), 0.7250 (June 16 high), 0.7266 (June 12 high) and 0.7316 (June 11 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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June 28, 2015 19:59 ET (23:59 GMT)
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June 28, 2015 19:59 ET (23:59 GMT)
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0 Response to "Major Currencies Under Pressure as Greece Crisis Escalates -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.